COMMENT
Iran conflict.

In general, it's a bit of a cautionary note for the market overall. All this fighting is good for oil prices, which is good for the companies that he covers. Higher prices = higher revenues and earnings. So it's very positive there.

But overall, investors have to be cautious for a few reasons. Chip stocks have come under pressure. The Shiller PE is back up near historic highs. And the 10-year government bond yield is just over 4.6% (~5% is where people in the know start to get very concerned about ability of US government to meet its obligations). There are enough things there to worry about.

The defense for that is to pick inexpensive companies that are trading at a discount to peers. Look for ones with identifiable catalysts.

COMMENT
Cautious on TSX.

It's a little more vulnerable. The worry is that it'll sell off if there's a selloff in the US markets. We could, potentially, revisit the time between 2000-2010 when commodities did really well but US markets did poorly. 

Time to be a bit cautious, perhaps raise a bit of cash. Be selective in terms of what you choose. Realize that it's been going great for a long time, but that doesn't mean it'll be extrapolated out to the future.

Commodities could do very well if the status quo holds. If the AI balloon continues to stay inflated, that's positive. Uncertainty in the Middle East will mean higher oil/gas prices, especially in Europe. That's all positive for the stocks he covers.

HOLD

A Hold right now. High-quality and diversified name, but premium valuation. Really exposed to Western Canadian gas prices and Pacific gas prices in the US. Both of those are under pressure, lots of inventory in storage.

(Analysts’ price target is $70.00)
HOLD

OK stock, a Hold, fairly valued. Compared to other midstream companies, unable to break out of its range. Good company, you should be OK if you want to hold it for the yield. Other names might have more upside. Take a look at PSK, not a big yield but very defensive.

(Analysts’ price target is $32.00)
BUY

Might have more upside than a GEI. Not a big yield, but very defensive.

COMMENT
Canadian energy producers.

As they relate to oil & gas, it's a pretty good situation for Canadian producers. Geopolitical instability increases the price of commodities, so that's positive for revenues. Every time Trump sends out a tweet at 3 am the CAD tends to sell off, and that's positive when you get revenues in US dollars but expenses in CAD. 

It's an area where there's clearly a need for Canadian production into the US. The US may be the largest oil producer in the world, but their fields are starting to roll over and they still don't produce enough to be self-sufficient. And we're the #1 supplier of oil and nat gas to meet that gap.

That's why the West is trying to get another pipeline built because the growth is all in Asia. Asia is the single-biggest block of demand for energy, which is likely to increase in future.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

If you want to be tactical, look for a bit better of an entry point. Really good company. Decent yield, pretty safe. Fairly valued, so doesn't see tremendous upside. Fine to buy-and-forget, as it'll grow into its valuation over time and do well. 

If there's some upset in the market (he's not saying there will be), everyone's going to cram into utilities -- they're the opposite end of the coin from something that's more growth-oriented.

But in a choice between this name and EMA, he'd pick EMA for more upside.

(Analysts’ price target is $80.00)
BUY

Good company. Very weighted to heavy oil. A bit smaller than some of the oil sands plays, but aggressive plans to grow. He'd be comfortable holding for some time.

WAIT

Probably one of the top names in gas. He'd prefer being more oil-weighted than gas-weighted right now. Gas price will be weaker due to high inventory, and won't benefit from geopolitics in the same way as oil. (When Trump cancelled the MOU 2 weeks ago, the US had only 4 weeks of oil inventory left.)

BUY

Likes this company, a Buy. He could see it in the mid-$20s or so. Has performed really well. Impact of any Russia-Ukraine resolution would be modest. LNG is the growth area.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Likes it a lot, one of the best in the business. Great run, more to go. You have to be a bit cautious because it's run so hard. Last quarter was great, continues to do really well. Nice balance of assets, including refining (which not every company has).

HOLD
Investor has targeted low $100s to sell part of a position.

Disappointed for many years, then hit the ball out of the park last couple of years. Investors wonder how this can keep going, but company is adamant that they can (aiming to reduce breakeven cost by $5 per barrel over time). Management's done a great job, deserves the benefit of the doubt.

Stock may be consolidating right now. (If you want to take some $$ off the table either for spending or for financial planning, you may want to lower your sell target to around where stock's trading now.)

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Aug 11/25, Up 61%)

If you're an O&G investor, this should be a staple in your portfolio. Bit of a misstep last quarter. High-quality name. Fairly valued here, but one to just hold.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Aug 11/25, Up 95%)

You can still hold it here, but perhaps not as aggressively. Clearwater has some of the best economics of any play, and it's one of the few pure-play Clearwater operators out there.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Aug 11/25, Up 151%)

Solid team, great execution. Hold, or continue to add to modestly. No reason to sell.