The Panic-Proof Portfolio (Stockchase Research)

Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly The health and wellness company focusing on pets has been in the proverbial dog house since its IPO. However now the valuation is starting to make sense. Recently released earnings beat expectations and forward guidance is in line with market expectations -- quite something in an market environment dealing with supply-chain and inflationary issues. Forward earnings project a PE at 14x, at par with peers and cash reserves are growing. It trades at only 1.5x book value. We recommend a stop loss at $11.50, looking to achieve $24 -- upside potential over 60%. Yield 0% (Analysts’ price target is $24.00)

Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly The company's largest acquisition in its history at $28 billion, sets it up to make a major move in the healthcare sector. The company it acquired produces medical hardware and software for pharmacies and labs and has been consistently profitable. Analysts believe this will allow ORCL to move from trading with its peers at 26x earnings, to next year be 13x and management noted revenue growth was the highest it has been since entering into the cloud space. We recommend a stop loss at $55, looking to achieve $93.50 -- upside over 35%. Yield 1.83%. (Analysts’ price target is $93.19)

Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly The retailer owns the brand names of The North Face and Vans. Its recently reported earnings were on par with expectations and supported a strong ROE of 35%. The company has continued to grow cash reserves, while retiring debt and buying back shares. It pays a good dividend that has been growing for 48 consecutive years and is backed by a payout ratio under 65% of cash flow. We recommend setting a stop loss at $36.00, looking to achieve $64.50 -- upside potential over 42%. Yield 4.3% (Analysts’ price target is $64.50)

(A Top Pick Apr 05/22, Down 22.4%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with GOOG has triggered its stop at $2200. To remain disciplined, we recommend covering the position at this time.

(A Top Pick Apr 14/22, Down 6.3%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with IIVI has triggered its stop at $58.50. To remain disciplined, we recommend covering the position at this time. This will result in a net investment loss of 11%, when combined with the previous buy recommendation.

(A Top Pick Oct 29/20, Up 62.6%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with WMK has triggered its stop at $74. To remain disciplined, we recommend covering the position at this time.

Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly The recent sell off in some key retailers (WMT and TGT, for example), are casting doubt on the strength of consumer spending -- a key driver in the US economy. Along with the threat of further interest rate increases, these concerns are signaling further market downside may be coming. It has never been more important to use a trailing stop to protect against sizable capital erosion that may take years to recover if a recession or stagflation take hold. We will continue to use the same metrics to identify good investment candidates (cash flow management; comparative valuation; earnings growth prospects; and good management strategy).

Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly With the largest liquified natural gas portfolio and network of service stations, SHEL is ideally situated to benefit from global energy rebalancing caused by the conflict in Ukraine and is reiterated again as a TOP PICK. Recently reported earnings beat analyst expectations and support a good 14% ROE. It trades at only 1.25x book value. It pays a good dividend backed by a payout ratio under 35% of cash flow. We like how it has built up cash reserves while aggressively retiring debt and buying back shares. We continue to recommend a stop loss at $45, looking to achieve $69.50 -- upside potential over 28%. Yield 3.32% (Analysts’ price target is $69.39)

Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly We again reiterate WCP as a TOP PICK. With a current cash flow breakeven level of $40 US, WCP expects to generate over $1.4 billion in excess cash flow after dividends. It should be debt-free by year end, analysts expect. It trades at 1.42x book value and pays a good dividend, backed by a payout ratio under 10% of cash flow. We continue to recommend a stop loss at $8.75, looking to achieve $13.50 -- upside potential of 34%. Yield 3.48% (Analysts’ price target is $13.54)

Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly STLD is expected to benefit from the trend towards "onshoring" -- security of supply for key infrastructure -- and is again reiterated as a TOP PICK. As one of the largest US steel producers, it will also benefit from the Biden Administration infrastructure focus to easy supply chain delays and boost automobile production. It trades at 4x earnings, compared to peers at 10x. Most recent earnings again beat analyst expectations and supports a ROE of 70%. Its cash reserves are relatively unchanged, while it aggressively buys back shares and retire debt early. We continue to recommend a stop loss at $68, looking to achieve $101.50 -- upside potential over 30%. Yield 1.81% (Analysts’ price target is $101.50)

(A Top Pick Sep 14/21, Up 23.9%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with LMT has triggered its stop at $425. To remain disciplined, we recommend covering the position at this time. This will result in a net investment gain of 21%, when considering the previous buy recommendation.

(A Top Pick Mar 31/22, Down 5.5%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with XLP has triggered its stop at $72. To remain disciplined, we recommend covering the position at this time. This will result in a net investment loss of 1%, when considering the previous buy recommendation.

(A Top Pick Jan 27/22, Up 6.8%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with DLTR has triggered its stop at $138. To remain disciplined, we recommend covering the position at this time. This will result in a net investment gain of 30%, when considering the previous buy recommendation.

(A Top Pick Apr 26/22, Down 31%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with LMT has gapped down thru our stop at $200. To remain disciplined, we recommend covering the position at this time.

(A Top Pick Dec 28/21, Down 4.5%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with WMT has gapped down through our stop at $145. To remain disciplined, we recommend covering the position at this time. This will result in a net investment loss of 4%, when considering the previous buy recommendation.