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Today's stock picks by Richard Orrell and The Weekly Buzzing Stocks by Billy Kawasaki are TPU.TO, VIDY.TO, FHIS.TO, CRWV, NVDA, RKLB.
He tries to allocate $$ for the best return with the least amount of risk. Knock on the whole complex is the massive spending. Fears that AI could disrupt Search, perpetual anti-trust overhang.
Cloud growth staggering last quarter, revenue up 82%. Search was up, so AI is not cannibalizing it (but increasing queries). Clear AI payoff through multiple avenues. Trading ~22x PE, growing ~19%. PEG looks really good. Yield is 0.26%.
Cons. Complex structure. Very sensitive to interest rates. Private equity exposure. Expansion into insurance makes both balance sheet and execution risk a bit higher.
Pros. Last quarter, distributable earnings up 15%. Fee-related earnings up 20%. Fee-bearing capital reached $672B. Big war chest of $210B of deployable capital. Fingers in lots of pies as growth engines. Share buybacks. Trades 13% below actual NAV. Way cheaper than it ought to be at 9x PE, for a modelled 21% distributable EPS growth. Yield is 0.76%.
Massive capex means cashflow will be negative for a bit. AI capacity buildout ahead of revenue raises execution risk. A weak consumer could hurt. Stake in Anthropic makes earnings very volatile.
Last quarter, revenue up 20% and EPS up 43%. AWS grew 37%, fastest pace in 18 quarters. Ads grew 26%. Retail margins keep improving as delivery density and automation increase (those buildouts from years ago are bearing fruit). Growing 22%, trading at 18.5x. PEG ratio's even better than GOOG. No dividend.
Sector's been hit hard on AI fears. 3/4 of revenue comes from NA, and more than half from the US. As business gets repatriated to the US, very well positioned to benefit. Small, so acquisitions can still make a difference. Really good organic growth, growth from acquisitions, discounted valuation.
Less than 15x PE, free cashflow yield above 6%. Really good opportunity. Yield is 1.02%.
Parent is less focused on paying a dividend, while subsidiaries are more income-focused. Flexibility to allocate capital across its portfolio, which is an amazing way to add another layer of value for shareholders. Buy this one for growth. (If you also want income, makes sense to also buy one of the subsidiaries.) Yield is 0.75%.
(Analysts’ price target is $74.98)European-based, but US operating platform. Contact lenses + surgical supplies (corrective procedures), each with 50% of revenues. Demographics is supportive even of eye health, and increased screen time also feeds into that. Reasonable valuation at 17x PE, 4-5% FCF yield.
Attractive, defensive business in this environment. Yield is 0.57%.
Tracks the S&P closely with a slightly higher weight in IT. He would add on the current pullback. Tech will rally after the US midterms. Small MER of 8 basis points. It's steady.