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Latest Stock Buy or Sell? Make More Informed Decisions!

Today, Andrey Omelchak commented about whether ELVA, TSU.TO, BDT.TO, BDI.TO, DXT.TO, VHI.TO, WSP.TO, DSG.TO, ISC.TO, DCBO.TO, FLT.V, NFI.TO, CSU.TO, BYD.TO, TOI.V, PRL.TO, MDA.TO, LMN.V, EIF.TO, WELL.TO are stocks to buy or sell.

COMMENT
Tariff deals signed today between Canada and China.

It's a very logical step for the federal government to go to China, and to other countries, and sign those agreements. They have to forge their own path, stand on their own feet, and form agreements with other countries. They shouldn't be held hostage to ongoing negotiations with one trade partner.

COMMENT
Uncertainty about CUSMA affecting markets?

Absolutely. Negotiations will take place later this year, and you never know if they'll be postponed again or not. If there's no agreement, it could get extended. We'll have to see what happens.

What he's seeing is a firm commitment to build Canada. There's a lot of excitement and a real investable theme. At some point real money will start flowing, and this will translate into operating results for companies.

COMMENT
Investable themes in Canada.

Build Canada is a big theme, and he thinks it's here to stay. Given what's happening on geopolitics globally, we've seen what happened in Venezuela and the rhetoric around Greenland, and potentially the Panama Canal and Cuba. Look at the Monroe Doctrine, its history, and what it means. The US administration has been very active and very clear in communicating what their vision is for the future -- dominance of the Western Hemisphere. The playbook is pretty clear.

Against that reality, we have to really invest in national defense and domestic priorities. We have to stand firm so we can maintain our position against pressure from the US in the years to come.

It's true that energy, infrastructure, and defense are all interesting industries. However, Canada should count its blessings. We have immense natural resources that we should take advantage of, but we shouldn't build a whole economy around natural resources. We have to take the proceeds from that and invest in high technology and aerospace as well.

COMMENT
Canadian market.

Last year was mainly driven by the resources complex. Gold prices have rallied a lot, after about 10 years of waiting for them to do so. Now it's happened on the back of geopolitics and other dynamics. It's anybody's guess where gold prices are going. 

Overall, Canadian markets have benefited tremendously from that. Canadian banks also did really well last year and carried the benchmarks higher.

At the same time, it's been a very bipolar market -- some industries are under pressure. A number of tech companies really underperformed last year on the back of AI threats. Question marks about whether their business models will be challenged or not and what AI developments mean for those businesses. So last year was a unique environment -- some companies did tremendously well, but others are under quite a bit of pressure.

BUY

Good company, likes the CEO quite a bit. Great buying opportunity right now, lots of upside. Especially likes that they're divesting from the US, which they absolutely need to do. Less than 2% market share, with lots of runway to consolidate in Canada. As they do that, investors will get more comfortable with the overall business.

Also, intends to IPO Wellstar this year -- the crown jewel, should command a healthy multiple, unlocking value.

HOLD

Very safe to hold onto. Healthy dividend yield. Exposed to defense as well as Canada's North. Has other avenues to improve operating margins. Good company, business is growing quite nicely. Expects it to do a bit of M&A consolidation.

Everyone's looking to get exposure to defense, and this is absolutely one of the names that will benefit from capital flows.

STRONG BUY

Tremendous buying opportunity at these levels. Sold off along with the other vertical software businesses due to AI threats. In reality, LMN has a very sticky business. It takes years to develop relationships with customers and apply software to address all the special cases, which can't be displaced by a single AI solution. As well, it can use AI to improve its offerings at a fraction of the cost.

Just made a highly accretive acquisition. Exceptional capital allocation at very high rates of return (for him, that's 20-25% or more). He thinks the market has it wrong.

HOLD
Canadian banks.

A solid hold. Long-term outlook remains pretty healthy, especially on the commercial side. Residential side is not doing as well. Provision for credit losses has been going higher, but nothing too alarming. Doing a pretty good job on expenses. Sees growth of 10+% for the sector this year, and potentially next year as well.

Also likes their high capital ratios, as ROE is trending higher. Regulatory environment is becoming more favourable.

BUY

Lots of volatility. Part of the Golden Dome -- no $$ amount associated with that, but that they're part of it is a good endorsement. Needs to diversify its client base. Business is doing well, generates cashflow. A mission-critical company in Canada, with opportunities in Europe. Exposed to the right themes of defense and national security. A good hold for the next several years.

PARTIAL BUY

Exceptionally high ROE. Originations (new loans) slowed last August/September, but then they increased. (These are short-duration loans, and they always need to grow the loan book.) Business has been growing almost 40% a year. Expanding in UK, US, and looking at other countries. Presence in Canada is not too big.

Management are smart and capable individuals, and their own capital is at stake. Extremely well run, high quality. If you're OK with volatility, buy here and you should do well over time. Keep your portfolio position small.

Caveat: US government is imposing rules left and right. Doesn't think proposed interest rate cap of 10% will be applied to non-prime lenders, but it's unpredictable. If a cap were applied, would be devastating. This is still one of his best ideas in the space, given quality of management and the fact that UK business is growing fast.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Apr 01/25, Down 22%)

(Timeframe not quite a year.)  Victim of attack on vertical market software. In reality, business is doing really well. Deployed $835M last year. Pressure on the business is overdone. Generates 6+% FCF yield if you look at next year. Tremendous upside. Organic growth rate is OK. 

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Apr 01/25, Up 9%)

(Timeframe not quite a year.)  Collision repair has been challenged for quite some time. Thinks industry has bottomed and is doing better. This company's results have been tremendously better than the rest of the industry. Same-store sales have gone positive, which is a very good indication. Stability of used-car prices helps its business.

Expects it to accelerate M&A with continued good multiples. Caveat: the industry is not as fragmented as it was, so don't expect the same accretive M&A trajectory. Introduced Project 360 to improve efficiencies, which isn't easy in this business model but management's done a good job.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Apr 01/25, Down 38%)

(Timeframe not quite a year.)  He actually bought more on the stock's drop, which is absolutely overdone. Generates 8% FCF yield if you look at 2027 numbers. As with TOI, vertical software integration companies might actually be beneficiaries with what is happening with AI. 

Last year was its second-highest year of capital deployment. Private equity is not as competitive right now, so CSU can do acquisitions much faster.

BUY ON WEAKNESS
Investor has been building a position over the past year on weakness.

Supply chain issues, on and off. It's a complex business with the 1000s of components required (if you're missing just one you can't ship the bus, inventory builds, and you have a working capital problem). These issues are transitory, though the current battery issue is more complicated.

Solid business, very difficult to displace, essential service. Investor's doing the right thing. Backlog is growing, and at some point that will mean much better profitability. You have to be patient.

RISKY

Drones. Monitors critical infrastructure. Talk of it being a defense play in Canada. Signed some good contracts, raised quite a bit of capital. Still needs to see profitability, so it's more speculative. Money can flow in, and out, really quickly. Likes the theme a lot, but you have to be really careful.

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