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He expects the Bank of Canada to hold rates this week due to strong Canadian labour numbers. It's expected that the bank will hike rates late in 2026. The US Fed will likely cut rates slowly, perhaps catching up to the Bank of Canada. Powell will move rates according to economic data. Likely, the Fed will have a hawkish cut where they signal a slower path forward. A larger question: Will the Fed lose its independence under the thumb of Trump. He hopes not.
Bonds. He was shocked by the bond market reaction to strong Canadian job numbers last week. The market is pricing in a rate hike; bond ETFs sharply went down after that jobs data. The XBB has returned only 1.86% annually since end-2014, bad relative to inflation. Corporate bonds offer more yield, but also more risk; XCB-T returns 2.79% annually, barely keeping up with inflation. Both bonds and equities look challenged looking forward, so investors need to look at private markets to generate returns. As for passive vs. active ETFs, most active funds don't deviate from the index, but charge active fees. Stick with passive funds.