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Best way to look ahead from where we are today is to consider which data points are going to filter through for a prolonged period. So, looking at where inflation could be and where interest rates could go over time. Those things will endure longer than any headline events that could resolve quickly.
The oil shock can be temporary, but the lasting effect in terms of inflation is where you want to keep a closer eye.
When you see the market selling off as a whole, there are a lot of stocks out there where that doesn't make sense.
Today's environment gets him more than a little interested in blue-chip companies that deserve higher valuations and have more durable growth rates than the market is giving them credit for today.
The companies that deserve attention are ones that we're all familiar with. This environment is unique in that some of the bigger-cap stocks (MSFT, META, GOOG, AMZN) are phenomenally well-positioned for where AI's going, as well as for their general defensibility. These names are trading at pretty big discounts relative to their own history.
You can pick up low-debt, high-growth companies at pretty attractive valuations. So big tech as a whole is interesting, with specifics determining which names to actually buy.
When you look across the different sets of companies, the bottlenecks tend to move.
AI is the biggest cross-sectional theme we're seeing across the entire market. But where you look under the hood step-by-step, and how that value capture changes, is a lot more important than it used to be.
Here's a simple example. All the excitement has been on memory stocks. But NVDA has seen a lot of relative de-rating, trading at huge discount. The pendulum swinging from where you are in the bottleneck, and all the way back to the core bundler, is an example of what you're seeing in the stock market as a whole.
Stock's done extremely well. Now let's zoom out a bit. There's a current shift in where profit pools are. Memory has done REALLY well because there's a huge shortage.
Not a long-term hold. It's known as a "deep cyclical" -- times you make $100 per share, and times you lose $$. This memory shortage is more structural in nature, so at $330 it's worth holding on to. Hold for years 1 and 2 of profitability, but in year 3 market will be anticipating year 4 of potentially negative earnings.
Weight-loss drug was a huge launch for it, yet LLY has been surpassing them on clinical trials and pipeline in the therapeutic area. Drug launch does not equal pipeline. NVO is behind, hence the 10x PE. If you buy, you're signing up for the dividend yield and the hope that it doesn't lose too much market share along the way.
Screaming buy? No. Touchstone, cornerstone, foundation? Absolutely not. Makes sense as a very small part of a broad, diversified portfolio? OK.