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His team is still pretty constructive on the markets. They've been long the tech sector for the last 5-10 years, and think that still has a great outlook. AI will continue to flow into the enterprise market. Tech is a huge part of the S&P 500, so that should continue to do well.
Tech's had a great run over the last 3 years, and we're now in the digestion phase where multiples are starting to level out after having expanded. We're going to need to see further earnings growth and further EPS revisions for a lot of these companies moving forward.
The Russell's seeing a rebound in more of the "real economy" companies such as auto stocks and equipment rental companies. That turnaround will continue to push the market higher. For the real economy, interest rates are lower and that's helping. From 2021-2022, ahead of the inflation spike, there was a huge surge from stimulus by governments around the world. We got ahead of ourselves in terms of inventories in lots of areas, and we have to work through that.
He has some exposure to metals and materials -- great performers last year, and expects that to continue.
Still shying away from consumer staples whether it's personal care or alcohol. Multiples in the sector have come down a ton. Sees a lot of headwinds that are structural in nature. Pricing power is non-existent, lower-end consumers are moving to private label. The digital economy has taken away a lot of the shelf space that companies used to have, and there are now a lot more options.
For upwards of a 20% position, he's generally comfortable holding in a long-term portfolio such as a TFSA. Especially if it's a stable, core anchor such as this name. Stock's had a great run over last 3-4 years, multiple's expanded from 9x PE to 12x. Doing everything right, but it is getting expensive.
He has been trimming, and you may want to do the same. Especially as there are no tax implications in a TFSA for selling. A 10-20% weighting in this name in a TFSA is appropriate.
It's really just a case of unfortunate entry timing. Spun out Canada Packers, and MFI shareholders received some shares of that. Looking more attractive at current prices, as the spinout eliminates a lot of the commodity risk. Heavy investment cycle is behind it, so now should see higher cashflow, higher returns, more share buybacks, and potentially higher dividends.
Hold, and you might even consider adding at this level.
Pivoting from technology patents to transportation sensors. Strategic pivot looked good on paper, but hasn't worked out. He'd be looking at other options.
His firm owns the debentures instead. They collect a 6% interest coupon, the bonds won't be converted (as the stock price hasn't risen), and they hope to get their money back in about a year.
P&C insurance, rather than the life insurance of MFC or SLF. Great performer over last 3 years, with its strategy to acquire smaller insurance companies. Good 5-year outlook. Bit expensive at 19.4x PE. Has sometimes been in the 14-16x PE range, and that's a better long-term entry point.
Start a position now, and then look to double it if it drops 15-20%.
Owns a bit in his dividend income fund. Great yield of ~7%, which he thinks is sustainable at current prices. If WTI oil moved down to $40-45 for any prolonged period, dividend might be cut. Great management, well run and well diversified. Some heavy crude (of concern with Venezuela), but a lot is lighter oil and natural gas, with some condensate.
He wouldn't have any problem buying it today, and look to add it if falls below $10. He tends to buy it below $10 and trim between $11-12 (though merger with VRN last year is new source of upside with the larger inventory base).
One of the larger holdings in his income fund, with a 6% weight. Target price over $100, so he's not looking to get out. Firing on all cylinders. Great aviation assets in Northern Canada such as MedEvac. Can benefit from increased defence spending as Canada moves into the Arctic. Lots of levers to pull.
Sees a comeback. Started to reacquire stock last summer just below $200, and bought more at $160-170. Lots of things need to go right, but if they do then there's 50-70% upside. Doesn't think it's a broken brand, will still have lots of growth internationally.
Key is getting US business back to growth, and the new CEO will need to deliver. Products from new designer hit the shelves this spring.
Instead, they own AVGO in their global fund. CLS is sort of riding the coattails of AVGO by packaging components to sell to the end consumer. Benefiting from growth in TPUs that AVGO and GOOG have been delivering. Thinks that trend will continue.
Two years ago, traded at 10x PE. Now trades at 30-35x. Lots of other companies out there do this type of work. In an eventual slowdown, may see margin and volume pressure. Could be quite volatile from here, and he'd take profits so you're just left with the house's money.
Took a big hit last summer with closing stores and layoffs. However, hiring more baristas per location to try to improve operations and efficiencies in speed and service. Right thing to do long term, but sets earnings estimates lower for the next couple of years. Premium brand. Likes new CEO with plans to return to the beloved SBUX of old.
Still likes for long term. Adding in $80s.
Now the largest or second-largest holding in his global equity fund. Growing faster and with higher margins than WMT or COST, yet trades at big discount to those two. Believes AI division will grow over 20% over for next 2-3 years. Has power capacity available, while other companies are still searching. Lots of upside optionality on the AWS side for 2026.
Looking to sell off US assets. Stock's interesting at this level, and his team is starting to take a look. Market needs to see some of its pending transactions go through. If the assets are so great, why aren't they executing on the sales? Investors are in wait-and-see mode.