Absolutely. In fact, the inflationary concerns never really went away.
The market was really pricing in an end to the conflict, and she's been more doubtful. Regardless what happens from a military standpoint, economic consequences outlast all of that. Bottom line is that she doesn't necessarily buy a ceasefire when you're dealing with several countries who aren't getting along.
Inflation is tricky because it takes a while for the effect of events to get priced in. We're dealing with higher energy prices, but there's a lag before it impacts food, airline prices, and such.
Another question is what effect will inflation have on interest rates? Prior to the conflict, the expectation was for cuts. That stopped. Now there's an expectation for possible increases. And that will affect the consumer. It's a snowball effect, which wasn't being price into the market until a day like today.
There's only so much the market can continue. She hates to use the word "bubble", but let's just say the market's showing late-cycle characteristics. A lot of capital was raised with SpaceX, and we're not done with upcoming IPOs. The market seems to be absorbing it at any valuation.
The valuations don't make any sense, but this is typical of a late cycle (similar to the late 1999 tech crash). There's strong investor enthusiasm, regardless of what the fundamentals or economics are dictating.
Down almost half from its peak. Hit by 2 areas: commercial real estate and fears of AI impacting engineering.
Could be good value as a long-term investment. Not something her firm would invest in. Yield is only 0.3%, and she wants a better yield for the risk. Commercial real estate is very economically sensitive. If you have a stronger risk appetite, could be a good entry point.
Peak on chart due to disruption in fertilizer components due to Iran war. She was buying last week below $90. Good for the patient investor with a long horizon. Limited new potash supply coming on, the need will increase, high barriers to entry.
Yield is 3.4%, which is paid from recurring revenue from the defensive retail channel. The solid dividend makes it safer to invest in this cyclical stock. Dividend's grown over 10% for past few years.
Gas producer. She's very bullish on the natural gas space, especially in Canada. Nothing against this name, but it's smaller cap (and that brings risk). For example, if nat gas prices fall then this dividend may not be safe. Balance sheet stretched, though paying down debt aggressively.
More volatile than traditional names. If you have the risk appetite, more upside. Long-term LNG is a big growth catalyst.
See her Top Picks.
Thinks dividend is safe, as the payout ratio is lower than some other telcos. Plus, the yield is lower than peers. Telco sector is not in favour, but RCI.B has outperformed.
Riskiest of the telcos right now. Higher debt. When you "flip" these sports assets (high valuation, but not cashflow positive), there's valuation risk. Lots of noise.
She really thought the bottom was ~$18. (She was wrong. Sigh.) Thinks dividend will be cut, though they probably don't actually need to. She's expecting a "kitchen sink" quarter, so she didn't make this a Top Pick.
She likes the underlying businesses. Really good job pivoting toward AI and data centres. Further ahead on capex for fibre to the home. Going to start selling its copper in the ground.
At the end of the day, barriers to entry are really high and it has defensive characteristics of critical infrastructure. History has shown that when a sector's out of favour like this, it's a good time to buy.