Today, Richard Orrell commented about whether PAVE, ZWS.TO, VMO.TO, VEQT.TO, VBAL.TO, VGRO.TO, VDY.TO, XBM.TO, ZPAY.TO, ZWU.TO, QMAX.TO, CNCC.TO, FLVI-CBOE, ZUQ.TO, TLT, XEI.TO, CDZ.TO, VFV.TO, HTA.TO, ZAP, HGY.TO, CIBR, CHPS.TO, ZEB.TO, NA.TO are stocks to buy or sell.
He looks at a number of factors to determine market direction. It was mainly the technology sector that experienced a summer swoon. Luckily some of the other sectors held up, such as financials and healthcare. At the end of July and early August, everything has come back together.
That's a really good sign for the market. It means that there's strength elsewhere than in just technology.
He also looks at credit markets, which aren't showing fear or widening spreads. Interest rates have been a big story this year -- expected decreases flipping to potential increases. There's still a buffer there to decrease if things go off the rails with the economy. Lastly, we have low volatility. There's a saying: "Never short a dull market." When volatility dies down and markets seem to be trending higher, that's not the time to get out.
That was part of the tech swoon. Hyperscalers came out with good earnings, but there are concerns on the capex side. This is a really big investment cycle, and the market acknowledges that these are big numbers but can see them working out over time with monetization. They also have massive cloud revenues to back up spending.
Canadian market's been on a tear for the last 2 years. Right spot, right time. We have lots of energy, financials, and materials. He hopes we can do more to access those and bring them to other markets. We're really firing on all cylinders in Canada. It's our time to shine.
Sees that persisting. The banks are getting high on valuation. Don't mess with the trend. If the trend is higher, you keep going.
It's always a good time to look at your asset allocation. No one likes to pay taxes, but there's a risk to not crystallizing your gains. (Not that you'd ever lose everything with Canadian banks.) Co-ordinate the sell with your tax planning.
Disclosure: His firm uses National Bank as a custodian.
Fair question. He might have a market outlook and thinks he's right. But what if he's not? His team always grounds itself in asset allocation. If something's run up, they take some profits and put them into fixed income.
Investors can suffer from recency bias. Times have been good, so why shouldn't they continue? Protect against that by taking profits along the way.
One major problem with gold is that it doesn't pay a distribution. Writing covered calls creates that distribution for you. Sometimes the distribution can be too high relative to the options strategy; so they replace that by giving you your own $$ back. He doesn't love that idea. The yield pulls you in, but there's not much advantage on total return.
At 10%, investor is in a good position. But don't add any more.
Tough call. It's about asset allocation again. There's another saying in the trading world: "Bulls make money, bears make money, but pigs get slaughtered." The idea is to not be greedy. Don't let a position become too large in your portfolio.
If you've done well, trim a bit (and put proceeds into the fixed income side of your portfolio). No need to sell completely.
Big managers in the US are leaning in to duration here and going further out. It's looking attractive at these rates. The big piece is the inflation story. If inflation starts going higher, rates won't be as attractive and you're going to get hit.
At his firm, they write options on fixed income. They can better manage a position that way. He'd be OK with a position in this, but only take a very small slice. You're pushing your duration up to 30 years, and there's a lot of uncertainty between now and then.