COMMENT
Markets.

He looks at a number of factors to determine market direction. It was mainly the technology sector that experienced a summer swoon. Luckily some of the other sectors held up, such as financials and healthcare. At the end of July and early August, everything has come back together. 

That's a really good sign for the market. It means that there's strength elsewhere than in just technology.

He also looks at credit markets, which aren't showing fear or widening spreads. Interest rates have been a big story this year -- expected decreases flipping to potential increases. There's still a buffer there to decrease if things go off the rails with the economy. Lastly, we have low volatility. There's a saying: "Never short a dull market." When volatility dies down and markets seem to be trending higher, that's not the time to get out.

COMMENT
AI capex concerns.

That was part of the tech swoon. Hyperscalers came out with good earnings, but there are concerns on the capex side. This is a really big investment cycle, and the market acknowledges that these are big numbers but can see them working out over time with monetization. They also have massive cloud revenues to back up spending.

COMMENT
TSX.

Canadian market's been on a tear for the last 2 years. Right spot, right time. We have lots of energy, financials, and materials. He hopes we can do more to access those and bring them to other markets. We're really firing on all cylinders in Canada. It's our time to shine.

Sees that persisting. The banks are getting high on valuation. Don't mess with the trend. If the trend is higher, you keep going.

PARTIAL SELL
Time to take some profits?

It's always a good time to look at your asset allocation. No one likes to pay taxes, but there's a risk to not crystallizing your gains. (Not that you'd ever lose everything with Canadian banks.) Co-ordinate the sell with your tax planning.

Disclosure:  His firm uses National Bank as a custodian.

COMMENT
If you think the TSX will march higher, why would you trim a position?

Fair question. He might have a market outlook and thinks he's right. But what if he's not? His team always grounds itself in asset allocation. If something's run up, they take some profits and put them into fixed income. 

Investors can suffer from recency bias. Times have been good, so why shouldn't they continue? Protect against that by taking profits along the way.

PARTIAL SELL
Time to take some profits?

It's always a good time to look at your asset allocation. No one likes to pay taxes, but there's a risk to not crystallizing your gains. (Not that you'd ever lose everything with Canadian banks.) Co-ordinate the sell with your tax planning.

BUY

Has done very well, comes with some volatility. TSM is in this ETF. He uses it for clients who are really looking for aggressive growth. 

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Has done very well. Two major holdings are CRWD and PANW. The best idea in the space, good track record. Demand will only grow.

HOLD
Investor is retired, holding ~10% in non-registered account, using the DRIP. Yield ~10.25%.

One major problem with gold is that it doesn't pay a distribution. Writing covered calls creates that distribution for you. Sometimes the distribution can be too high relative to the options strategy; so they replace that by giving you your own $$ back. He doesn't love that idea. The yield pulls you in, but there's not much advantage on total return.

At 10%, investor is in a good position. But don't add any more.

WATCH

Feeds into the AI theme. Long-term projections show that electricity will definitely be a bottleneck. Assuming that data centres all stay on the ground (and not up in the sky), we'll have that bottleneck. Likes this ETF if you have a long time horizon. 

He's been looking at it, hasn't purchased yet.

PARTIAL SELL
Keep adding, or take some profits?

Tough call. It's about asset allocation again. There's another saying in the trading world:  "Bulls make money, bears make money, but pigs get slaughtered." The idea is to not be greedy. Don't let a position become too large in your portfolio. 

If you've done well, trim a bit (and put proceeds into the fixed income side of your portfolio). No need to sell completely.

PARTIAL SELL

Very solid holding, can be a core holding in a portfolio. It can see you through the ups and downs over the long term. The only point he'd make is that technology has become such a heavy weighting in that index. So he'd move into the equal weight space a bit more.

DON'T BUY
Stable hold for 5% of a retiree's portfolio?

"Aristocrats" means that they keep raising their dividend. If they don't, they get removed from the ETF. He doesn't want a dividend raised by a penny or so just to qualify. He wants a healthy boost to a dividend.

Instead, he prefers XEI.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Slightly lower MER than CDZ. As well, criteria for dividend payers isn't as strict. He doesn't want a dividend raised by a penny or so just to qualify. He wants a healthy boost to a dividend.

PARTIAL BUY
30-year US treasuries?

Big managers in the US are leaning in to duration here and going further out. It's looking attractive at these rates. The big piece is the inflation story. If inflation starts going higher, rates won't be as attractive and you're going to get hit.

At his firm, they write options on fixed income. They can better manage a position that way. He'd be OK with a position in this, but only take a very small slice. You're pushing your duration up to 30 years, and there's a lot of uncertainty between now and then.