Jamie Murray

BMO and BNS reported today, and the market rewarded BMO for its US outperformance. BNS has less of that presence, so the market is favouring a US presence, given the Trump tariff threats. There's tons of uncertainty in the market, and nobody has a good understanding of what is actually happening. Will tariffs be implemented on what goods and sectors? Stay diversified, and consider sectors in a weaker market and when interest rates decline, which he still expects. The US 10-year rate has fallen a lot in recent weeks, and there are more homes for sale in the US sunbelt now. He expects homebuilding levels to come down in the spring, and the Fed to ease rates. He expects US deregulation to come later, in 2026, as Trump decides where to cut back in Washington, which will have a negative impact short term. The market will be choppy till then. It's hard to invest when you don't know what the policy is going to be, the main issue with the Trump issue. 

It's now a momentum story, but now very expensive. A great company. He bought a lot of shares during the sell-off a few years ago when competitors like Prime launched. There are better opportunities in gen AI. They've done a great job in live programming (sports).

Yes. It was a top pick of his last spring. He doesn't think there will be much negative impact from Washington investigating their billing practices, though there remains headline risk. Fundamentals are improving, though they are paying out more for medical costs, which he hopes will normalize. It's trading below the market PE, when usually it trades above.

He owns the quarterly debentures. It was a good story, but now stuck in neutral. Sales and revenue growth are lumpy, because they depend on contracts (in infrastructure). Has disappointed investors. He will let his debentures mature in 2026. They have cash to buy companies as revenue grows. It's worth holding onto.

It's the cheapest oil company. Are buying back stock an are increasing the dividend, but they let their debt get too high. Then, oil prices softened. We likes the new CEO, though, and will announce a new strategy. He expects asset sales to reduce debt and eventually raise share prices.

It's a UK private equity investment firm that buys and flips companies, including a European discount retailer, a huge retail success. He expects this growth to continue as that retailer adds more stores globally. As long as that retailer does well, so will 3i shares.

They rallied last summer, then faced headwinds last fall when a cancer drug failed to perform in trials and there was an investigation in their large Chinese business. Both problems are clearing now. They have a drug pipeline that should become a great growth story. Trades at 15x PE. 

A year it ago, it traded at a dirt cheap 6-7x PE. Many thought it was left for dead with bad insurance contracts. In Dec. 2023, they sold a lot of those contracts at a decent price. That's when he entered this. But he recently sold this to buy TD (which has more upside).

He's most excited about banking de-regulation, loosening constraints as a result of the 2008 banking crisis. De-regulating will loosen a lot of capital, so he owns MS in anticipation.

Volatile the past year, though paying great returns. After a sleepy history, it is now benefitting from the AI build-out as it works with Broadcom. The recent downturn is tied to headlines of a slowdown in building date centres. Ultimately, revenues will increase over 2-3 years, and the 2028 outlook will drive this stock higher.

It's one of his largest holdings. Waymo is a great product and a pillar of growth for GOOG; how will they monetize it? GOOG leads in autonomous driving. GOOG has the cheapest PE in the Mag 7 and the strongest moat. Isn't worried about their search business declining.

He owns a small holding. Likes their growth profile from their weight-loss drug; they will continue to take market share from Novo Nordisk. The big news this week was that drug shortages were over. They lowered the price too. But shares are expensive at  20x PE on 2028 numbers--expensive for a pharmaceutical. It's had a big run, so he's not adding shares, but trimming.

He recently added to it. There's $25-26/share of asset value, considering all their projects on a NAV value. Question is, how will they finance growth? The answer is their new CEO, from Atkins Realis. He sees lots of value in NPI.

Is one of his largest holdings. It's had a rough week. Their infrastructure business stores oil in Alberta and Texas, and they have a marketing business. The latter has been weak and volatile. The dividend is sustainable; cash flow covers it. Is not worried about tariffs.

They changed the CEO last summer, one of the best in fast food (did a great job at Chipotle). The CEO is improving through-put, will restore the coffee house vibe, and wants to add 10,000 locations in the US alone. You're betting on the CEO.