Investors are climbing a wall of worry: the US-Iran war, and trade tensions with the US. Markets are hitting all-time highs though as earnings growth is delivering. Q2 earnings growth on the S&P rose 50% in a year, primarily driven by AI. The semis did very well in Q2, though a July pullback was healthy to broaden the rally. Consensus thinks EPS will grow over 30% this year and 15% next. Nobody is calling for a recession, which would cause a sharp pullback. Most importantly, if the economy continues to grow, so will share prices. Canada has 2 quarters of negative GDP, but doesn't see a recession; things have rebounded since Q1. Many policies are spurring trade with other countries and Canada is building infrastructure, which all benefits the Canadian economy.
An ex-CEO from CIBC now leads Telus. The market expected the dividend cut, but was cut more than expected. They kept revenue and EBITDA guidance. They want to sell non-core assets, but an announcement has yet to come, and will focus on core telecom business. All this led to a share decline, and telcos have been weak. Immigration no longer drives growth. She doesn't like the telcos. Still waiting on the sidelines.
Has been underperforming. They exist in an oligopoly. The business model is good: you buy their elevator and sign a service contract, which is high-margin and often recurs. Elevators, especially in Europe, are aging, and need replacing and service. China is a weak market and a headwind, but Otis wants to capture this market. Still like this fundamentally.
Is the top Canadian bank and the largest. They benefit from capital markets and wealth management activity. THey bought HSBC, so they can grow by cross-selling products. The past year the Canadian banks have done very well, but PEs are historically high. RY's dividend is below 3%, but historically rises. Banks are provisionoing less. The regulators just lowered the amount of capital banks must keep on their balance sheets, so this benefits future growth.
Before recommending it, CNR reduced guidance a few times, there strikes and they had fire/weather issues that reduced their volumes. The stock pulled back, so did valuations. They had expanded their network, so they took on more volume and reduced capex this year, which increased free cash flow and bought back shares. Still likes it.