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He's not going to cross-check an expert like that who understands the dynamics. Though no reliable sources yet, he expects there's been some damage to Iran's ability to produce. There's enough excess capacity in different parts of the Gulf to offset that, so he's not too worried at this point.

The market's celebrating today with a relief rally that the war isn't escalating, but he suspects there's more to come. The rally may last the rest of the week, until negotiations start. You can also expect the US to be bulking up its presence in the Gulf; this was just a bit of a pause.

Right now, it's a glass half full/half empty scenario. For him, the end goal is about regime change in Iran; the world just might be a better place if we had less terrorism.

A couple of weeks back he reduced exposure in the energy sector, assuming that the spike would be temporary. But recent events suggest it's a bit more permanent.

If we see that December crude oil is starting to trade a lot higher than where it is today, that suggests sustained elevation. We're not seeing that yet, but something to keep an eye on.

Oil and gas are big inputs into everything. Transportation is the obvious one. When you raise the price of gas at the pump that's $$ that literally goes up in smoke, leaving less discretionary income for the consumer to spend. Restaurants, clothing, you name it.

Discretionary income is what will get hit if this is a more permanent thing. He doesn't think it will be, but it's going on longer than the couple of weeks initially thought. Could easily be several more months.

The extent to which the US has mitigated Iran's military and missile capability is still being debated.

It's a huge factor. By and large, President Trump has broad support from the Republican Party in the sense that the world's a better place with less terrorism. They want to finish the job, rather than leave it half-done at this point. Trump's request for additional funding last week put pressure on the bond market which, in turn, helped put pressure on the stock market. 

A number of things need to be considered.

It depends on the holder. To make it more tax-efficient, you need to hold it in a taxable account. Let's say you bought at the beginning of the year, and you earned 3% (earned, but not distributed), the value will have gone up 3% by the end of the year. 

If you sell it before it reaches its tax date at the end of the year, then theoretically it will trigger a capital gain in the asset. Thereby turning fixed income returns into capital gains. Not the core purpose of the fund, but a very nice idea. But you have to be active to do it.

Great long-term exposure for Canadians in taxable accounts. Our banks have withstood so many business cycles over the years. From time to time, they will go down a lot; for example, during tariffs last year.

If we get close (and he thinks we are) to an economic environment in Canada where we're worried about recession and job growth, Canadian banks will underperform and go down more significantly than the broader market decline.

A way to play defense, and the covered call overlay adds another layer of defense via the extra yield. But to put new $$ in now after the run they've had? Absolutely not. But loves them for the long term.

If we get close (and he thinks we are) to an economic environment in Canada where we're worried about recession and job growth, Canadian banks will underperform and go down more significantly than the broader market decline.

Not as defensive as ZWB, where the covered call overlay (and its extra yield) adds another layer of defense. Loves Canadian banks for the long term, but not a place for new $$ right now.

Let's do some simple analysis. 

MSFT is roughly 5% of the S&P 500. If he wants to beat the market, how much of MSFT should he own in his portfolio? Given where the stock is today, he'd probably be about 2/3 full weight and looking to add on weakness. That's because there's a scenario where it could fall to $325-350.

Right now trading at 25x PE, and it could go to 21-22x if we get another leg down in equity markets. Loves it long term.

When it comes to the impact AI will have on it, the moat's a lot bigger around its IP than some other companies. No one's going to create another widely adopted suite like that of MSFT.

Great long term. Growth story to buy on dips. From a cyclical perspective, after the current rally, he'd be a seller at this point. Take a look at the 5-year chart.

It also depends whether you hold it in a taxable account or not. He's pretty sure we're going to go through a time when it's like 2022-2024 -- stock will go sideways and potentially lose you money.

If you're a trader in a registered account, sell sell sell sell. If you're a long-term buy-and-holder, trim a bit or buy some put protection. Don't throw new $$ at it. We're headed back to $60 oil.

Question is will AI destroy the moat around a lot of these companies? This name is one of them. There are cheaper PDF readers out there, and AI can do a lot of creative work. Likes it here and bought some for a trade, risk/reward pretty compelling.

Contrast that to the IP of MSFT -- the moat's a lot bigger around it, as we're not going to create another widely adopted suite like that of MSFT.

Likes it a lot here for income seekers. Lots of commentary and disruption in the private credit space. A way to buy a basket of some of the best credit players. Yes, there are a lot of bad loans out there. But a lot of these companies are trading at 15-30% discount to NAV.

The answer depends on your specific situation. If you're an active trader, currency trading can get very expensive. It would be different for a buy-and-hold investor. Are you in a taxable account or not? Generally speaking, CRA doesn't look kindly on tax-avoidant strategies.

CDRs give Canadian investors a way to invest in big US firms by using only small amounts of money. The smaller amount of capital required also lets you diversify more easily.

Tracks the broader copper market. Loved the sector when it was cheap a year ago, but not so much here after it's run up. He'd be cautious at this point.

If the Iran conflict has triggered an economic slowdown, then copper's going back to the low-mid $4 range. A lot of copper stocks will go with it.

The sector is one to buy on dips and trade. Anything commodity-based is more a trader's market than a structural buy-and-hold.

US Debt

That it's at a tipping point is an understatement. The amount of debt in the world is catastrophic. We're at a place where there's an opportunity here.

Over the years, governments have been very lazy in not being willing to make hard choices because it risks their political future. They've been poor governors of our tax dollars. So the debt problem just gets worse and worse and kicked down the road.

The book This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly comments that the inflection point is when public debt is 100% of GDP. Last year, 2025, was the year the US crossed the Rubicon of more than 100% debt to GDP. Projections by the US Congressional budget office aren't even taking into account recession risk, and we'll almost certainly have one. (There's a link in his blog for those who want to look into the book further.)

It's the 10-year bond rate, not necessarily the overnight rate, that matters the most. It has everything to do with supply of debt and inflation. With the war going on, both inflation and the cost of debt are big problems.

TLT is an ETF that he likes to trade. It's the long bond, giving you the 20+ end of the bond market. Chart shows that it's at the lows it's hit for the last number of years. With a US slowdown and recession, it has the potential to return to $110 (though not much more). Big potential for capital gains. Compelling risk/reward.

The falling chart reflects a vote on whether there will be a interest rate cut by the Fed. Don't give up on this stock. It has value.