There's roughly $1.4 trillion in margin debt in the US. Says Warren Buffett, "People aren't investing. They're not even speculating. They're outright gambling." Historically, then, we'll see markets in any month go up down 1-2%, but this year it's 5-10%. If investors hold a stock that's up 500-600% in one year, they need to remember that stocks historically move up or down 10% a year. So, the most prudent thing is to rebalance and sell half your position. In a few weeks, if the tech companies don't report that the billions they're spending aren't profitable, the market could correct. Rebalancing is important. He's holding 5-15% cash to buy beaten-down stocks. Not only tech, but banks and insurers have gone up fast and far, so take some profits.
He owns a preferred share. AQN's problem is the debt from all their acquisitions back in the day; interest rates hit them hard and forced a dividend cut. They sold their renewables business. Then, shares fell after an earnings report that lowered their 2027 profit guidance. AQN now focuses on gas, water and electric services. The street is saying to them, "Prove to me you can make money again." It's sitting in the penalty box waiting for management to show a positive move.
It's in a transition away from Warren Buffett to the new CEO. It's a show-me story. Greg Abel has recently bought Google and Delta Airlines. The main issue here is that BRK has little exposure to AI, which is driving the US market. Also, the underlying economy in the US sees many consumer struggling to make ends meet and watching their money. This is slowing down BRK. Insurance competition is also a drag.
Its earnings and competition are dragging it down. Many people are getting tired of binge-watching. They aren't growing the business as fast as before after massive growth. It's the law of diminishing returns. Warners is up for sale, but carries a lot of debt--whoever buys them must absorb that debt. He won't own any streamers.
India is a big importer of oil. When the US-Iran war broke out, Indian stocks started to fall. Each $10 rise in the oil price reduced India's GDP by 0.25%. This hurts the bank, because they lend. Recent earnings were light. Shares are down 9% today on that. It's one of the largest banks in India. Half the population is under 35. If India ever builds its infrastructure and removes its corruption, it could become the next superpower over the next 25 years. HDB gives you wide exposure to India. You can dollar-cost average this stock. Lower oil prices will help India and HDB.
He exited all software stocks last fall. Probably we won't see if these companies still have a business model in the face of AI till 2027 or the PE decline so far will keep these stocks where they are. CSU has recently come back 20%, but remains 30% the past year. Some investors feel that software is not dead and are dollar-cost averaging. All software, though, remains a wait-and-see story--what is the impact of AI? If software loses its pricing power, they will trade like utilities at lower multiples.
Aerospace is a hot industry given the war, the Pentagon and Spacex. MDA is volatile, but what are the potential earnings, which are supposed to be $1.80 EPS in 2027, then jump to $2.08 in 2028, or 10% growth. But MDA trades at 30-50x PE. Volatile stocks like this that double or triple, you must sell half your shares.
Software and spending concerns are problems. What will OpenAI do for MSFT? But if quantum computing happens, MSFT is one of the three hyperscalers who will take advantage. Google and MSFT have produced chips for quantum computing; MSFT's chip is self-cooling, which extends their lifetime. MSFT is volatile, but he wants to add to his position.
Trades at 41x PE. It comes down to whether demand will continue to rise with AI spending. If so, profits will continue to be profitable with EPS to jump from $10 in 2026 to $15 in 2027, then $19 in 2028, then $26 in 2029. CLS comes down to how much you want to pay for it. Beta is a volatile 2.04, twice as much as the TSX. So, earnings is very important.
It's the weakest Canadian bank. They're reducing exposure to the Caribbean, because that area lacks growth. Tailwinds for all Canadian banks: the stock market is going up, management fees are up, M&A is increasing, and loans and mortgage rates are rising in a struggling economy. BNS is still struggling. Their dividend increase was the weakest of the six. He's not convinced BNS will catch up to its peers.