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The private markets are ideal with people with a 20-30-year objective. He blames the media for blowing things up. If you read the fine print within these private equity stocks, they explain they're illiquid and a process to redeem your assets, and there will be gating when demand to redeem exceeds supply. None of this is a surprise, and yet the media reports it as the end of the world. These stocks are now trading at a steep discount to NAV. Everyone should own these stocks in their portfolios.
Almost half the Nasdaq is made up of the top 10 stocks. That concentration keeps growing. Three major IPOs, including SpaceX, are coming and could be trillion-dollar IPOs. The way Nasdaq is changing its rules is that once these companies go IPO, they will force the natural buying of the index funds. The passive index exposure is very concentrated too,.
The price of oil is sticking due to uncertainty. Until the Strait of Hormuz logjam ends, we will see a geopolitical premium in the energy market. Energy impacts everybody everywhere. The strait is the biggest chokepoint for oil. Trump is pressuring other nations to get involved to open the strait, nations which rely on this oil. It's a big week for central weeks, such as Australia's. Expects them to pause policy decision because of the Mideast war. Of concern is the weak employment number from last Friday--due to AI or the end of the business cycle? Rising oil prices don't help.
The so-called credit crisis in private equity stocks is wrong. The fault lies with private credit funds that are inept at explaining the retail investors how their funds work and can access their capital. These cast majority of these private credit funds have and do work and can pay their debts. The banks are not hurt at all. These are not like mutual funds, but rather have limited liquidity and are set up to last 6-10 years and pay hefty dividends to investors in the meantime. These are long-term vehicles that lock in your investment. There will not be a private credit bank run.
There are three tipping points for oil prices. The first is the Headwind Zone where oil reaches $120 a barrel. Consumers feel the impact but this is mostly offset by increased revenue and taxes from oil producers in Canada and the US. For example the $9 billion dollar deficit in Alberta was gone two days after the war started in Iran. The second level is called the Recessionary Zone at $150 a barrel. This leads to demand destruction as consumers and businesses drastically curtail spending to cut costs. Spending on oil reaches 5% of GDP which historically has meant recession. The third zone is called Systemic Crisis at $200 per barrel. This leads to a systemic tax at every operational level of commerce which would lead to a global downturn.
The breaking point is higher than a week ago because Canada and the US are much more service oriented and a lot less manufacturing oriented, so are less energy intensive and more efficient with equipment. Also the US produces a lot more oil and gas now than in the 1970's