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That's right, yet we're living through the worst energy crisis in our lifetimes (even taking into account the 1970s). The complacency still in the oil market is astounding.

Let's put things in perspective. Middle Eastern production is down almost 11M barrels per day. Flows out of the Strait are down ~17M barrels per day. The last of the ships that were able to exit the Strait have now reached port.

So you're now starting to hear stories such as 500 gas stations in Australia shutting down because they've run out of gasoline. Some fish markets in Asia have no fish on the shelves because it's not economic for the fishers to go out anymore.

The real effects are just being felt today. The situation is dynamic, but if the Strait remains closed, and you look out 2-3 weeks from now, we will lose throughout 2026 (based on data from Energy Aspects) approximately 920M barrels of Middle Eastern production. That's more than we lost during Covid (so far the biggest demand shock in history).

The benchmarks don't yet reflect reality. Reality will hit very soon in the coming days and weeks.

We need to reach an oil price within about a month where you kill demand, because you're depleting stockpiles so quickly. Strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) releases are, at most, 4M barrels per day (but production is down 11M, and flows are down 17M).

There's no policy change you can enact to offset this mismatch. Once the SPR release is over, that's when it really blows up. To restore balance, you have to kill demand. Unfortunately for the global economy, the oil price for that is a shockingly high number of roughly $175 per barrel (when oil price reaches 5.5% of global GDP).

We're using up the safety buffers -- strategic releases, onshore storage, offshore storage. Those are all ending in the next several days to weeks. That's when the paper market will reflect the physical market.

There's all this talk that Trump will TACO this weekend, and everything will go back to normal. There is no normal to go back to. Consensus was that 2026 would face the biggest oil glut in history, and oil would fall to $40. In the next 3 weeks, inventories will go to multi-year lows because we've lost so much production. 

That resets the floor for the price of oil when this ends. He calls this "the day after". What does that look like? It'll take at least 3-4 months to bring back production in the Middle East, even if peace breaks out on the weekend and oil sells off. There will be a long-term $10-20 premium on oil that the world will have to put up with.

Technology has been unlocking value in wells, which are booming. He hasn't sold any shares. Try not to trade around it. Just sit on it, and let returns compound for you.

Loves it. Very best play in the very best rock in the very best place to be (Canada). Technology and water flooding keeps getting better. Decades of drilling inventory. Don't trim.

His view is that whatever you want your energy weighting to be, you want maximum weight right now. Things continue to get worse by the day, not better.

The worst energy crisis of our lifetimes. In the coming days and weeks, prices of WTI and Brent will need to better reflect reality.

You have to have a macro view -- incredibly challenging for DIY investors. Portfolio managers spend a lot of time and $$ to obtain global perspective. Then you need to decide if you want to be in drillers, refiners, oil, natural gas, etc.

Trades at a 2x premium to TVE -- partly due to management's finding resources early and being successful. Thinks a lot of future upside already baked in, though may have another 20% upside. Prefers other names.

At maximum weight in his fund. Most obvious Canadian large-cap name to own right now. Security of supply is the most paramount issue right now. Thinks it's a $50 stock at $80 oil; his own in-house estimates model $79.

Benefits from best rock in Canada and massive expansions in US refining.

The global LNG perspective has changed dramatically in just the past month. There was supposed to be this massive glut going out to 2029. Now with Qatar being hit, 20% of global LNG supply is offline right now. They say it'll take 4-5 years to rebuild, which translates into 17% of capacity. 

That means the world's lost 3.5% of global LNG for at least the next 4-5 years. Disaster. There's no strategic reserve for natural gas.

He has zero natural gas in his fund. Domestic natural gas fundamentals really eroded. There's too much supply. More oil drilling also produces gas alongside. You want to be all in oil right now.

About 25% of volume exposed to spot pricing. Spot's up ~150% YTD. He looked at it, and decided a lot of the juice was already baked in. He's positive on LNG as a theme, but it's difficult to benefit from that.

Sell now, it's fully valued. The PE multiple is fair. He'd love to rebuy. Likes its pragmatic approach to hedging, deep inventory, underappreciated well results. 

Total respect for management. Lots of insider ownership. Great job aggregating resources. One day it'll be strategic, just not today. Tailwinds from Alberta data centres, but that's really down the road.

See his Top Picks.

Used to be the beta name for leverage to oil. Doesn't have that as much anymore. Cash on balance sheet will be used to buy back shares. With oil where it's at, you get paralysis on M&A (sellers want current price, buyers want to pay what it was a month ago).

Approaching fair value, though can maybe spin out another 10-20%. See his Top Picks.