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A few things are causing this.
Markets have had quite a run, and you really need the underlying businesses to catch up with that. And a lot of it is AI and gold. The speculative elements have still been moving in the market, whereas everything else has been flatlining for the last couple of months.
Money has, perhaps, been balancing out to other sectors. But if it is, it's the very first stage. We've been waiting for this for a while. Really, the market has to wring out the excess speculation right now. There are a lot of pricey companies out there and a lot of very pricey assets.
Interesting. Some of those that have disappointed the street (though they may have surpassed what the estimates were) have been severely punished. Even companies that well surpassed analysts' estimates saw their stocks go up only a bit.
So you can see that expectations are high out there, as well as some nervousness on the street.
What this market reminds him a little of is 1999-2000. Even though the tech bubble crashed and markets went down, probably half the stocks continued to go up for the next 2 years. It's really a two-tiered market between things that are overvalued and things that are correctly or undervalued.
His group is looking for a little more clarity on the tariff side, whether we get it or not. Also looking for some economic indicators -- coming through in Canada, but not so much in the US.
Earnings for NVDA are coming out, and that company's really the bellwether for things that have really been running this year.
He owns, so is right in there with the investor. JPM says Telus can't sustain its dividend, and market really punished it on that news. Next couple of years, capex won't be as robust as in past few years (going from ~17% to ~12%). So can more than cover dividend for next couple of years. Raised dividend the other day.
Underlying business is not a great growth business, but still has some legs. Yield is 8.95%.
He can't forecast the price of oil, it's tough. Right now, it's $60 a barrel. In Canada, with new pipelines being built, the spread between Canadian oil and West Texas Intermediate Brent is narrowing. If you want to own oil, CNQ is the place to be.
The AI buildout needs energy, wherever that comes from. Until they build more reactors and wind turbines, oil and natural gas will supply the need.
Wonderful business. Doesn't own because it's highly priced, even at this level. It would have to go down a bit more for him to buy. Any hiccup in the business and it'll go down more. But you never know what investors are going to do tomorrow.
Has done a great job of picking up other software companies, not worried about that part. A theme that will no doubt keep coming up in today's show is that it's all about price in this market today.
If he didn't already have enough, he'd be actively buying. On headline earnings, looks expensive, but earning cashflow like it's going out of style. Waste management business is great. Acquisitions are done well; very long runway, especially in the US where they add smaller operators (gives them the scale to make a lot of $$).
In this market we're facing a lot more macro uncertainties, as opposed to company-specific problems that you can get a handle on. It's always hard to commit fresh cash in this type of environment. If the underlying business is OK on a stock he likes, he's content just to hold for the time being.
He wishes he knew, because then he could make a lot more money ;) When we look at the whole tech market, everything is priced to perfection. If there's a stumble, these names can rocket down 10-20% in a day. He doesn't know that that's going to happen, but expectations are very high. Great business, but overpriced.
We'll see what happens. If NVDA stumbles and does not meet expectations, it could be a bad tomorrow for the company. A game he doesn't want to play, as there's too much danger on the downside.