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Today, Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA and Gordon Reid commented about whether UBER, GOOG, EME, ELV, BAC, AMZN, MELI, TSM, TOL, BLBD, RTX, UPS, PFE, BSX, META, FCX, ANF, WPM.TO, FFN.TO, ZMMK.TO, ZPAY.TO, BRK.B, IFP.TO, CACB.TO, NVDA are stocks to buy or sell.
It was always going to be resolved by U.S. Thanksgiving, but count on US politics to drag it out. It doesn't matter if government reopens today or two weeks from now, but we were reaching a critical point. For the markets, this news is not a bullish catalyst. Today's snapback is a little overdone and he doubts we'll see new highs. The current market is speculative, relying on leverage and day to day options as opposed to robust economics. He's concerned.
A fine ETF that provides better returns that an index-based, corporate bond ETF. But in 2022, it performed badly. Corporate bond spreads are right now. You want the yield, but not the credit risk. So, if the economy is struggling and stocks falling, corporate bonds underperform government ones. There are not government bonds of high grade in Canada or the US paying enough yield unless you take a lot of interest rate risk. He likes the long end of the treasury curve, if we enter a hard economic landing to protect against weaker stock markets rather than an actively managed corporate bond fund.
Loves it long term and Buffet's legacy. This is so massive that it acts like an index-type strategy. It doesn't pay a dividend, so it's tax-efficient for Canadaians (good). They have a huge amount cash. This will go up and down with market risk. Since Buffet left, the stock has lagged. Still, a great company. Will perform like a market index.
If markets correct suddenly like last April, don't be in a GIC; you can't buy stocks. If you want to take advantage of a market decline, don't lock it up into a GIC. Much prefers a money market instrument or a long-term bond fund in the US and not Canada (out interest rates have declined a lot).
When more debt enters the market, there are few dollars for other assets. He was shocked, well shouldn't have, when Trump said we're making so much from tariffs that we're giving back $2,000 to every American, except the rich. Trump is trying to manipulate markets with a social media post, even though Bessent was very critical of Janet Yellen of manipulation, and yet they are doing the same thing. The TLT chart (the long end of the treasury curve). Getting the long-term rates down will benefit the US government. But giving $2,000 to everyone is an election promise going into the US Midterms is terrible policy, because it would increase the cost of funding the US debt. Therefore, bond yields will creep up on the long end. He likes TLT at $84-85. This will break out if the US falls off a cliff--a recession, stocks are in trouble. But if TLT falls below $84, this means stress on interest rates that could hurt stock markets. Watch the long end of the treasury curve.
The sell off last week was a natural pullback and the market needs breaks from times when they keep rising, especially if not based on fundamentals. However the AI trade is still intact. Also many companies are trading at slight premiums but have the fundamentals for it with growth in cash flow and earnings. Be cautious with some that are trading on hope. Some are at 80 to 90 times revenue and should be avoided, eg. Palantir. A good portfolio can afford to have one or two companies with stretched valuations but they must be coupled with companies that are grounded. Portfolios should be overall composed of quality companies. A basic theme is to hold companies that are growing faster than the market and trading at lower prices than the market.
There are two views for copper. The cyclical one is hard to peg and it's hard to know what is going on in China. The secular view takes into account the ever increasing usage of copper which will probably double by the end of the decade due to data centres, etc. EV's use 4 times the amount of copper than conventional vehicles. Own it for the long term.