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We know that the president is a petulant infant, and there's a long-established fact pattern that supports this. Today it's the Doug Ford/Ronald Reagan ad campaign. Next week it's the World Series. And you can bet dollars to doughnuts that there'll be something else the following week.
As investors, what we want to do is tune in to the signals that the market's giving us and tune out the noise. All this Trumpian sound and fury signifying nothing ... just turn it down or turn it off. Investors are learning that lesson, and markets are trading accordingly.
We've seen a good flurry of earnings out of the US -- about 20% of S&P 500 companies. Notably, we've seen the big money-centre banks, some of the regional banks, and some tech names (though we're waiting for most of the Mag 7 reporting next week).
Early indications from US banks are that things are looking good. Same for other sectors like consumer and industrial names. Just starting to get a trickle of results from Canadian companies. Expectations are high.
It looks pretty good going into year-end.
This is a really important budget (though we always say that). But this particular budget is one where the Canadian government really needs to meet the moment.
Seeing estimates from private-sector economists that are bracing investors to steel themselves for pretty big budget deficits, something in the order of $80-100B. These are levels of deficit we've really not seen outside of those couple of years of Covid.
He'll want to see some indication that the government is realizing efficiencies in the day-to-day business of running the government. There are ambitious plans to make commitments to fund the military and to support NATO. He's hopeful that we're going to see incentives to encourage private-sector investment, which is something Canada desperately needs to enhance our prosperity.
If we have an ambitious and well-thought-out budget, it could alleviate some of the pressure on the BOC to cut rates more aggressively. May shore up some support for the CAD as well; it's up YTD, but lagging all of its G10 peers against the USD.
Big electricity-generating utility. Mostly in Alberta, with a presence in US and very small presence in Australia. He's not interested.
Endeavouring to grow its low yield of ~1.1%. Cut dividend by 78% in 2015, ratcheting upward since. Not profitable on bottom line, which is anomalous for a utility. Fairly highly levered (though that's not unusual). Not investment-grade credit rating.
Global. Big player in US, making a series of "metro market" acquisitions. A near-shoring strategy. Affected by US government shutdown, but so is everybody, and it's not a reason not to own. Pretty steady, stable grower. May be missing some of the sizzle that tech investors are looking for. Not rapid organic growth, more low-mid single digits.
No qualms owning. Take advantage of disinterest in an otherwise good company and buy when it's on sale. Very good long-term compounder over many decades; if you own it, definitely hold on.
His firm owns RY, BMO, and TD as cornerstone holdings in its dividend-growers mandate. Canadian banking is a stable, well-regulated oligopoly. Structurally profitable, heavy barriers to entry. Diversified by line of business and by geography. Its fee-based businesses should be very profitable this quarter.
One fly in ointment: tepid loan growth demand, especially in mortgages, and to a lesser extent in commercial loans. Thinks the worst of credit loss provisions is behind the Canadian banks.
His firm owns RY, BMO, and TD as cornerstone holdings in its dividend-growers mandate. Canadian banking is a stable, well-regulated oligopoly. Structurally profitable, heavy barriers to entry. Diversified by line of business and by geography. Its fee-based businesses should be very profitable this quarter.
One fly in ointment: tepid loan growth demand, especially in mortgages, and to a lesser extent in commercial loans. Thinks the worst of credit loss provisions is behind the Canadian banks.
His firm owns RY, BMO, and TD as cornerstone holdings in its dividend-growers mandate. Canadian banking is a stable, well-regulated oligopoly. Structurally profitable, heavy barriers to entry. Diversified by line of business and by geography. Its fee-based businesses should be very profitable this quarter.
One fly in ointment: tepid loan growth demand, especially in mortgages, and to a lesser extent in commercial loans. Thinks the worst of credit loss provisions is behind the Canadian banks.
Nice dividend, in his dividend growers mandate. Also pays special dividends -- this lets it not be beholden to a super-high dividend, but also honour commitment to return capital to shareholders. A more ambitious capex program might throttle back some of those special dividends, but this company is very good at capital deployment.
Alberta nat gas is the lowest cost to produce. Prolific resources. Biggest nat gas producer in Canada. LNG Canada had some growing pains, but those will get ironed out -- that's the ticket to accessing higher-priced markets, and more facilities are on the drawing board. Long-term outlook for the group is pretty rosy.
Timing was not great on this one. Still one of the best trucking companies in NA. Indigestion integrating less-than-truckload acquisition; shook up that management, and that bodes well. Whole sector is facing overcapacity, pressuring rates. Long-term potential and compounding will return.
Not setting the world on fire (but other stocks do that). Own this for its dividend and dividend growth. Share price is at a discount. Price war ended up being a zero-sum game, but competitive intensity has abated. Profits are linked to population growth, and that's slowing due to immigration policies.
Likes its array of non-core businesses and plans to monetize urban real estate. These are unpriced catalysts that could move the stock price. Yield of 7.8%, pretty juicy.