Be cautious. We've seen this before and it ended badly. Many good things are happening: the US economy is doing well, Canadian jobs numbers were solid, the housing market is firming up a little, the AI boom. Though he's skeptical, the Middle East war is de-escalating. We're near the end of the bull market: are record-high multiples and the market should mean-revert in a correction. U.S. 10-year treasury notes are not being issued because 85% of the issuance is now at the short end. Even defensive stocks aren't cheap. Only energy and tech have gained in the last 12 months; all else has done poorly. In Canada, telcos are cheap because of competition and regulatory threats. Canadian banks have shot up to all-time high PEs. He's not in a hurry to deploy new capital.
The oil floor has risen since the US-Iran war, but alot of supply will come in soon. The oil price will test $70. Sanctions lifted, Iran can sell at market prices. Canadian producers are well-positioned. The CAD is at 70 cents, which means C$90 a barrel (based on US$70 barrels). He likes WCP; they've consolidated into a sizable-enough player.
Prefers AEM for its safer mining jurisdictions. Barrick hasn't been a great steward of shareholder capital for a long time. It's good now to add some gold. Gold is no longer an inflation hedge. Lower inflation could increase bond demand, but decreases gold's demand. Long term, he likes gold because he seems more problems for the global economy.
The cut the dividend which heavily disappointed him. Grudgingly, he stuck with NPI, which became a good decision. Two big projects in Taiwan and the Baltic Sea are close to hitting milestones with deliverables in 2027-8. This will trigger good cash flow. Will watch new management and its new dividend policy.
BCE is a warning for Telus: cutting the dividend, then the stock struggles. Long term, these wired and wireless network will have value for Canadians. Also, telcos are leveraging their tech footprint in the data centre business, which could become a growth lever. Telcos--which faciliatate social media and communicating--will continue to hold value. He likes BCE at current levels.
Yes, buy. This doesn't have much downside. This is good long-term. A new CEO will change the management team. The CEO, from CIBC, makes him confident. Even if he cuts the dividend, Telus still yields 4-5%. The stock should be in the mid-20s. There is a path back to it, but it could take time. Telus is a very long-term hold. It's already pretty cheap.
Three years ago these kinds of companies were the best deal in town, but are now a tricky. Huge revaluations were justified. These were never going to be stranded assets, though those who expects us not to need oil in the future thought otherwise. Given the Iran war, there's more demand to get oil safely to market. We'll see if their Prairie Connector project comes to pass. He's content to keep shares that came out of the TC Energy deal, never adding or selling.