Latest Stock Buy or Sell? Make More Informed Decisions!

The US jobs report came out this morning and blew everyone away, very strong. That will add fodder to the arguments of the Fed hawks, though there might be some dissenters.

For the BOC, the job number today was very weak and broad-based by sector and region. Very much poured cold water on any thought of a near-term rate hike by the BOC, and there wasn't much inclination of that.

Yes, it's likely that inflation will stick around for a while and is being pushed up by energy prices. This war in the Middle East was supposed to be over in 3 days or some grandiose timeframe. The off-ramp for both sides is looking very congested. That will likely keep the oil market fairly tight, though we are hearing some reports of escorted tankers making it through the Strait. 

Nevertheless, $90 oil is a problem for inflation because oil prices are implicit in the cost of transportation for all goods. And oil prices are explicitly part of consumer goods. It's a bigger problem in the US where the economy is running hotter in the first place and the labour market is tighter.

The big thing is what happens to wage inflation. In the States, it was not getting either worse or better. It cooled off remarkably in Canada, from 3% and a bit last month down to 2%.

The big thing is this cliche that the market climbs a wall of worry, and it's been doing that since he was last on the show in August. Both the S&P and the TSX marched up to fresh all-time highs before pulling back in the last couple of weeks, but still not too far off their highs. 

That's on the back of very strong corporate earnings growth -- close to 20% in Canada, and an unbelievable north of 50% in the US. All driven by an investment super-cycle that's centred on AI and data centres.

His firm is seeing opportunity in the suppliers of critical minerals, who are selling into the massive global infrastructure, AI, and data centre buildout. Also seeing opportunities in stalwart secular growth champions in non-cyclical industries. Here and there are AI babies thrown out with the bathwater, and on which his firm is taking a contrarian view.

Fair and friendly tuck-in acquisitions. Pullback is probably a compelling opportunity. Chart shows it's done well over time, just under 20% compound shareholder return over 10 years. One of the purest plays on the acceleration of economic growth in Northern Canada. Windows business has been under a bit of pressure. Excellent company.

Volatile because it's newsy, a mid-cap name, and only popped on investors' radar in the last 18 months. Secular outlook is excellent. Should benefit from ongoing buildout in military spending domestically. Acquisition will position them well to bid on classified contracts in US. Mostly a domestic play. Backlog is large and growing.

Great large, US super-major with both downstream and upstream integration. Unique in that it's one of the few international companies to operate in Venezuela, where it's difficult to operate. Is that a risk or an opportunity? His team says geopolitical risk. Owns XOM instead.

Well-positioned to meet massive power demand of data centres and AI. One of the largest producers of nuclear energy (clean, always on) in the US. Demand outstripping supply, which creates pricing power and will fuel earnings over the long haul. Likes assets and footprint.

Pullback probably due to NIMBY obstructionism on data centres, and political pushback on resulting electricity price inflation. Short-term setbacks. Buyable with new $$ today.

Good question. Succinct answer:  not a chance. AI is driving 2/3-3/4 of overall US economic growth. Canadian banks are a levered play on economic growth, always have been and always will be. If the AI bubble bursts, it'll be a macro headwind.

To one degree or another, Canadian banks are all operating in the States. Provisions for credit losses would likely pick up, which would impact earnings. Capital markets businesses are all making money hand over fist. If that were to fizzle and dry up, would be a headwind. Wealth management fees are predicated on value of assets managed; if markets tanked, fees would go down. Overall market multiple would compress, and banks now are trading at elevated PE ratios.

Real question:  would they weather the storm better than other parts of the market? Probably better than some, but wouldn't be immune.

Not a pure play on AI and data centre buildout, but benefits. Primarily a US domestic business. Stalwart grower for long periods of time; compound earnings over last decade at high teens pace. Undemanding multiple of ~20x PE, similar to peers. Dip is buyable.

Disappointing, still under a cloud. An AI baby thrown out with the bathwater. M&A hit a lull, but has reaccelerated. Back in gear. Very undervalued. Good opportunity.

AUM grew 15% YOY in latest quarter. Earnings grew more than 30%. Shares are now ~15x PE. Monetizations growing like gangbusters. Market is dislocated from fundamentals, and that's the time to grit your teeth and keep holding.

He sold in February. When events negate your investment thesis, you have to change your position. 

Not a stock his team would buy. Fashion is difficult. NKE, GAP, and CTU could tell you that things that are on trend stay on trend until they don't, and then it's really hard to get them back. Not convinced new CEO can turn it around.

If you hold then sell on a bounce, but don't hold your breath. Something's clearly not right.

Loves it. His firm just bought more this week on the weakness after quarterly results. Pursuing $8B deal in Poland/Romania -- in retrospect, that's a better prize than 7-Eleven. Zabka's organic growth is ~20%, digitally enabled, all in-store merchandise (higher margins than fuel). Probably the best acquisition they've ever done.

He's bullish on uranium, as it feeds into the clean, green, always-on energy that the grid needs. Saskatchewan is a mining-friendly jurisdiction. Project is financed and fully permitted. Upside, despite the nice run. Comfortable buying today.