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US market still has plenty going for it, but the easy part may be behind us. Economic growth still holding up well. Corporate earnings remain healthy. AI story continues to deliver -- recent earnings reinforced that demand for AI infrastructure remains incredibly strong.
We're seeing evidence that AI doesn't necessarily replace traditional software, but can make those platforms more valuable and more productive. That's an important evolution in the AI trade. Challenge is that investors are already paying a lot for that growth. Interest rates remain elevated. Valuations are slightly stretched, especially in parts of the market. Expectations are still extremely high.
Her team isn't necessarily stepping away from US equities, but they're becoming more selective. Still likes technology, particularly companies supplying the AI buildout. Also looking beyond the biggest winners for the next areas of opportunity.
Canada offers a very different opportunity set. We don't have the same growth engine as the US. But we do have meaningful exposure to energy, materials, and financials.
The economy has shown some encouraging signs of resilience. This week, all 6 banks beat earnings expectations. That's another indication that corporate Canada is holding up reasonably well. Financials have already had a tremendous run YTD, so there could be better opportunities elsewhere in the Canadian market.
We saw NVDA jump yesterday after another quarter of blowout earnings. They surprised on both the top and bottom line. EPS growth rate of 111% versus this time last year! Sales growth of 106%. Question is whether that's going to be sustainable long-term?
Not that it won't continue to be innovative and profitable, but some of these tech giants in the AI space have analyst expectations set very high.
Valuations are a little stretched. We're into the time of historical seasonal weakness. Still lots of turmoil between Canada and the US. Geopolitical risk is still there as well. And US midterms are right around the corner.
Wouldn't be surprised to see some volatility. Ultimately, diversification will remain the centre of her strategy -- by sector, geography, and source of growth. At this stage of the cycle, depending too heavily on any single market, sector, or theme could hurt you.
Generated $32B of operating cashflow last year. FCF is negative because they spent roughly $56B building AI data centres. Investors are willing to tolerate that spending because of extraordinary demand. Wouldn't expect a FCF reversal while the buildout continues, but those new data centres will produce revenue.
Rebound potential. Wait and see, earnings next week. She has only a 1/2 position now, and will see what the earnings report says.
Continues working through a multi-year turnaround. Now mostly a regulated utility providing natural gas, water, and electricity. Positive that management's returned focus to simpler utility operations. New, approved utility rates are helping earnings. More than 80% of operations in US, HQ plans to move to US (reduce taxes, attract more US investors).
Debt remains extremely high, earnings growth still modest. She's just monitoring, needs to see more execution.
Owns both. Likes both, but for different reasons. Complement each other in a portfolio. Recently added to MU on pullback.
MU makes memory chips. More cyclical. When demand and pricing are strong, can be a lot more earnings upside. A bit more torque in the current AI memory cycle.
TSM manufactures advanced chip design. Steadier, higher-quality manufacturing platform. Sits at the centre of almost the entire semiconductor ecosystem. Tradeoff is geopolitical risk, with most of advanced production concentrated in Taiwan.
Owns both. Likes both, but for different reasons. Complement each other in a portfolio. Recently added to MU on pullback.
MU makes memory chips. More cyclical. When demand and pricing are strong, can be a lot more earnings upside. A bit more torque in the current AI memory cycle.
TSM manufactures advanced chip design. Steadier, higher-quality manufacturing platform. Sits at the centre of almost the entire semiconductor ecosystem. Tradeoff is geopolitical risk, with most of advanced production concentrated in Taiwan.
Several different earnings streams under one roof. Aviation is the real engine, a lot of the demand is essential rather than discretionary (makes cashflow more resilient). Last quarter very strong, raised guidance. Acquisition model keeps them buying profitable, niche businesses. Recently increased dividend.
She'd trim for sure, but continue to hold.
Long-term story very interesting. She wants to see a bit better execution. Last quarter disappointing, lowered 2026 outlook. Consumer demand weakened. Closing older facilities, walking away from unprofitable products. Management expects increased capacity expected to boost sales and profits, and she wants evidence of that.
Valuation more attractive. Debt remains elevated.
Very volatile. Underlying growth is pretty exceptional. Revenue grew 61% last quarter. Now very profitable. Enormous amount of authentic, human conversation makes it unique in an AI world. That content has value for advertising and AI models. Added to the S&P 500 this month.
Her preference in the space is still META, advertising engine is more mature and diversified. RDDT has more upside, but more volatility and execution risk.
Finally showing that the turnaround has real substance. Really likes QNX, huge future royalty backlog from cars it's embedded in. Moving beyond cars into physical robotics and AI. Revenue grew 26% last quarter. Cash generation is moving in the right direction. Catalysts are very real.
Question is not whether turnaround is real. It's what price should you pay for it? Next reports on September 24 -- see if that confirms that growth is accelerating.