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Middle Eastern production is down 7.5 million barrels per day, we have forfeited nearly 4.5 million barrels cumulative of Mideast production, and exports out of the Strait of Hormuz are 12-20 million barrels daily (if you trust the White House) though 7-8 M are more likely. So, now we can't drawn much more production, and Iran is aware of this. Also, Ukraine is blasting Russia, which lowers oil refining, and the Houthis are attacking Saudi refineries. Diesel prices are up 60% the past year and gas is up 40%. China saved the oil market by dropping their imports by 5.5 million barrels per day, which is massive. We may see weakness in the refined product, but the strength will transfer to the oil price. Everything is on the table: oil prices could soar past $100, 120, 130, 140, 150. This war was supposed to last 2 weeks, and now it's month 7. We are in a critically dangerous area for oil. A key risk is bad US policy from now till the US Midterms. The US 10-year is at 4.8%. 5% is the red-light level. Energy is the biggest inflationary factor. The oil price is high, Trump has only a 33% approval rating heading into Midterms, and the is very unpopular with both sides of the House. Bad policy would be a crude or diesel export ban, or a TACO that will result in a massive loss.

With oil, you don't look at EPS, but cash flow. He hopes that in 2027 the US-Iran war is over and things resemble normal at a floor price of $70. At this price, FRU has a payout ratio of 68%. Their dividend is sustainable into the low $50s. He's recommended FRU many times and is not worried.

He's done well at a $4 cost. When to sell? Complicated because TVE is buying Headwater. The buying price depends on the price of oil. TVE stock is approaching fair value now with a little upside. Buy on dips.

He's done very well with it over years. Is a long-term hold, because he's bullish oil as demand grows. At $70 oil, this trades at 6.2x PE with a fair PE of 8x. He targets 28% upside. At $80, ATH is a $16.60 stock or 52% upside.

Very well-run small, heavy-oil producer. A key project is exceeding expectations. Pays a solid 6% dividend with modest growth. Execution risk is minimal. The stock won't double, but will be consistent. He targets $17.

Wants to see what the new management team can do. The Eagle Ford took their eye off the ball. They have a lot under the hood that the market doesn't appreciate, but BTE is a prove-it story. The CEO is paid only stock, not pay. 

It compounds 32% a year the past 5 years. 

Pays a 4.3% dividend. Could a temporary headwind: TOU entered into a few deals, paying in Topaz stock (TOU owns 12% of Topaz). Well-run, taking advantage of growth in Clearwater, and are growing natural gas volumes. The stock won't double but slowly rise.

Would name it top pick again. Based on $70 WTI, WCP has 20% upside to $22.50; at $80, it's $26. He wouldn't be surprised if WCP was bought out. WCP has a super inventory in the Montney and Duvernay and at least 17 years of stay-flat inventory. The CEO always buys shares on weakness, strong balance sheet and pays a dividend of 4%. Modest growth.

He sold it. Is a call on natural gas. Back then, there was good growth and demand. But then heating demand is gong down due to forecasts of a warm winter. Would rather buy WCP.

Is partially exposed to propane exports. He became negative on natural has and sold those nat gas stocks a while ago. He didn't make money on it.

It's too small in terms of assets and capex. There are better names.