Today, The Weekly Buzzing Stocks by Billy Kawasaki and The Panic-Proof Portfolio (Stockchase Research) commented about whether TEVA, XLC, XLE, VGG.TO, PLTR, GOOG, MCD are stocks to buy or sell.
If everything went completely wrong, markets would probably still go up. That seems to be what's happening anyway. He was sure (as sure as God made little green apples), with the new US Fed chair as Trump's boy, that there was no way they were going to raise interest rates before the midterm elections. They did.
And the market hit new highs.
Yes, US earnings have been robust. Despite all evidence to the contrary, there's evidence of tremendous optimism still out there in the market. You can say it's because there's nowhere else for people to put their cash, or because of the greater fool theory, or because (in real terms) interest rates are still quite low. (The stated interest rate is 3% or so, but he doesn't know of anything that's gone up only 3% in the last year.)
There's a lot going on out there psychologically that we don't understand. It's also possible that it's just AI and the first step toward singularity.
It's already catching up. Look at today's news surrounding ORCL and pipeline delays. Energy is an input, and there's a cost to running all of this technology. There are a lot of challenges around energy.
There's a lot of demand for energy that's not going to stop. So the price of energy will continue to be robust, which won't necessarily be a terrible thing for Canada.
He's looking for companies that are able to raise their prices, and that have control over their own markets to a much greater degree. It'll be interesting to see what happens with the banks, Canadian ones in particular, which had a huge run earlier this year.
With this rising interest rate environment, it could be a good thing for the banks. They've done very well in a low-interest rate environment. Typically, falling rates are better for banks. It'll be interesting to see how the financial services sector does from here.
The high debt issue has just come home to roost today. ORCL just issued a force majeure (which sounds terribly serious). They borrowed all this money to build all these data centres for computing power. Political headwinds surround new data centres, especially if there's a change after the US midterms.
Not a lot of room for error. Priced assuming everything's going to work, without any black swan events (which are almost becoming predictable at this point).
Depends very much on the economy. Had a good run, pulled back in last couple of months. Base metal stocks will continue to do well if the economy keeps going, buildouts keep progressing, and global infrastructure continues to be an important theme over the next few years.
If you want to start a position today, buy a little bit (say, 20%). If it goes down you can say, "Thank goodness I didn't invest it all." If it goes up, say "Thank goodness I bought a little bit."
Drop probably due more to the outlook for the bond market in general than to the company specifically. His father's friend used to say, "The bond crop never fails." The end of a tech bubble would see a diminished market for that area of fixed income, but there will always be a market for bonds (especially from governments).