Today, Andrew Moffs commented about whether REI.UN.TO, FR, CSH.UN.TO, VITL.UN.TO, XRE.TO, PMZ.UN.TO, CRT.UN.TO, KMP.UN.TO, PLZ.UN.TO, MEQ.TO, AP.UN.TO, GO.U.TO, SIA.TO, DIR.UN.TO, GRT.UN.TO, FCR.UN.TO, CHP.UN.TO, MRG.UN.TO, CAR.UN.TO, HR.UN.TO are stocks to buy or sell.
The public markets have underwritten that higher rates are going to have negative ramifications on commercial real estate. His team says that's not the case. Yes, we've had a big rise in rates recently. But there are a couple of silver linings in the commercial real estate market, which the public market isn't fully appreciating.
The first one is falling new supply. It's cheaper to buy than build today, due to those increased interest rates. Publicly traded companies have access to capital, with credit markets wide open. We've seen resilient cashflows across commercial real estate companies. During recent US earnings season 70% of REITs beat consensus, and 86% increased full-year guidance.
The last thing we're seeing is M&A. We've seen 21 takeovers of REITs in the past 2 years. The private market's looking at the public market and asking if it's on sale.
All that combines to present a big opportunity.
In Canada, we have an interesting setup. Rates have moved higher, though not nearly to the same level as in the US. In certain sectors, we're seeing growth and strength. Think about seniors housing, retirement homes, grocery-anchored shopping centre REITs.
The offset to the headwind of higher rates has been higher income growth, especially in more recession-resistant sectors and those that are tariff-resilient.
Largest multi-family REIT in Canada. Very nice portfolio across the country. 36% in GTA, 20% of that tilting to higher end of the market. Ontario is rent controlled. Lots of new supply at high end of the market, putting pressure on rent. Seeing low turnover, but because inflation is higher, utility costs and such are being borne by the landlord. So margins are being squeezed.
Value stock. Cheap. He's waiting for the catalyst to earnings growth, which is not imminent.
Largest REIT in Canada, concentrated in Loblaw-anchored shopping centres. 68% in retail, 25% industrial, balance in residential. Blue chip, great balance sheet, solid management. Can hold through any cycle. Safe distribution.
Currently acquiring half of First Capital Realty (great portfolio). Will be dilutive initially. Taking on more debt. Stock's pulled back, probably an interesting level to look at buying for the long term.
One of the most attractive discounts to NAV in the entire industrial warehouse space. Post-liberation day, plus with rising interest rates, tenants took a pause. But life must go on. Now seeing pickups in leasing. Sees market rents ticking higher, especially in Europe. Good place to be.
Cut distribution, earnings outlook dramatically lower. Office leasing in general picking up. Needs to get leasing up and debt down. Asset sales are helping with debt. AFFO still over 100% (distribution not covered by earnings). Two projects will potentially cough up proceeds, which would help a lot. Need high risk tolerance for this one.
Likes management, and that it's a corporation (so they can retain as much cashflow as possible). Stock's come off along with the rest of the space. Good geographic positioning. Great opportunity to own at discount to NAV.
Population growth has decelerated in Canada, so you have to look for inter-provincial growth. That's showing up in many of the places MEQ operates in. For example, Alberta is affordable and provides jobs.