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Mixed American job numbers today would have made no difference to the US Fed's decision last week. The numbers are benign. The US is on a jobs strike--managers won't make hiring or firing decision until they see greater clarity of the economy, sectors, and industries. We're not in stagflation; the economy is still growing, but inflation is a risk. We got a rate cut, but the market was surprised by the dovish tone--and the market didn't react well, which is telling. The market is supposed to like a dovish Fed. If rates go down for the wrong reason, it could create other problems, namely higher inflation.
It's been a successful year for Visa the company, but Visa the stock not so much. One reason is that investors are unsure what will happen to economy--will there be a recession and will unemployment spike? The PE has shrunk from low-30s to 26-27x. The fundamental march on, but not the share price. Visa is much larger than Mastercard, trades at a lower multiple and Visa's debit card business is more entrenched. Visa remains the leader.
Every other person on the planet uses a Meta app or device, powerful, an advertising engine. He likes and doesn't like the leadership, which is bold, namely the metaverse which he has never understood. But they pivoted when the metaverse didn't work. It was good that the CEO pivoted and didn't stay the course.
He's owned this for over 20 years. It's asset-lite, AI-enhanced and own Open Table, Kayak, RentalCars.com, Agoda and others. Are growing rapidly, over 20%. Next year they will earn over $200/share. This year, the market was afraid of a weak consumer and travel stocks weakening, but that didn't happen. Experiential travel remains strong.
We again reiterate MSFT as a TOP PICK following recently released earnings showing rising cash reserves, while debt was retired and shares aggressively bought back. Margins expanded 18% over the year and its intelligent cloud revenues surged 28%. Its ROE over 30% continues to demonstrate its strong position in the growing AI space. We continue to recommend a tight stop at $453, looking to achieve $630 -- upside potential over 30%. Yield 0.7%
(Analysts’ price target is $630.33)