Since 1950 the S&P has been down in September about 60% of the time. The average amount in the last few years is 6%. Rate cuts in the U.S. are coming, probably 25 basis points at a time. This should introduce a bullish sentiment which was not the case last September. If the rate cut is 50%, this would cause concern about recession. Dividend stocks which got hid hard over the past couple of years are coming back as rates come down. Lower rates are also a lift for utilities and pipelines.

She believes the S&P is peaking and grains (agriculture) are seeing a lot of negativity. A very unusual confluence that could lead to a short-squeeze in the grain complex.

Trump will have better corporate tax policy and better individual tax-cutting compared to Harris. But the impact will be far worse for deficits going forward. This matters a lot. Because it's such a close race, this adds a lot of uncertainty over the next 2 months.

As always, it will come down to a couple of swing states. Most important one and closest race is Pennsylvania. US Steel takeover is a big focus there. It almost doesn't matter who wins the presidency, because tax policies get voted on by Congress. Whether we see a blue sweep or a red one, what does that mean?

According to polls, slight tilt now toward the GOP in Congress. Slight tilt toward Harris as President. Senate looking to be Republican. Likely going to be a split outcome, which is actually the best for equity markets based on the last 70 years. Until we get beyond the election, it really matters.

For the individual, everybody gets a tax cut under Trump. But do the top 10-20% need it? Vast majority of spending in his package will benefit the rich, by far. For Harris, the top 10% will pay a bit more, but the bottom half will be way better off.

At the end of the day when all's said and done, he thinks Harris will get the nod.

What does all this mean for equity markets as we head into the next couple of months? We've seen added volatility in markets since about mid-July, when Harris entered the race and Biden left. Favourable inflation numbers, but weakening labour situation. Worry in first days of August with Japanese carry trade, they changed policy, markets rallied but could not make a new high. 50-day MA was broken on Friday. Need to test support before we can rally, and support is about 3-4% below where the S&P 500 is sitting right now. Very high probability of testing that between now and the September 18 FOMC meeting.

If Fed does 50 bps, and is really worried about the economy, support will break and we'll come back down. If they do 25 bps, suspects we'll see a bit of a bounce, but ultimately don't expect new highs until US election results are in. Market's in a holding pattern, with volatility, between now and election day.