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Stock Opinions by Jerome Hass

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COMMENT

The deal between the US and Russia for diesel is a drop in the bucket and will have little impact. What's interesting is the US seems to have relaxed the sanctions against Russia, but now faces US bi-partisan pushback. He'd be surprised if this deal goes through, considering many Republicans oppose it. He doesn't see an end to to the US-Iran war. Iran has leverage and will string out this war for as long as they can to gain even more leverage. He's amazed that some believe that oil prices will fall after the U.S. midterm elections. In Canada, Alberta's premier first proposed the TransMountain extension a year ago, but nothing has been done so far. Carney isn't moving at breathtaking speed, as promised.

DON'T BUY

Is 87% gas and he isn't keen on Canadian has producers--doesn't like the exposure to echo pricing, but management is diversifying away from that. They have a great 20 years of drilling inventory.  PEY signed a deal with a UK company for 10 years of supply starting in 2029. This will be linked to European nat gas pricing which is much higher than here. Pays a great 5.9% dividend and at a 7x PE. Not for him.

STRONG BUY

Trades at a cheap 5x PE. They have 50 years of drilling inventory, but the street doesn't give them credit for it. So, they will increase production by 50% in the next few years. Lots of upside.

BUY

They use cutting edge technology to drill. They service 18 of the top 20 oil/gas producers in North America. Trades at a only 3.3x EBIT to EBITDA. Pays a 6.2% dividend. Trades at 4.5x PE, so pretty good upside is ahead. 

STRONG BUY

This and Suncor are the blue-chips of Canadian oil. Both can access refining. Q3 and Q4 refining results will go through the roof if oil continues at these levels. Trades at 5.6x PE, when it should be 8x, so there's lots of upside. Has great upstream and downstream assets.

DON'T BUY

The CEO has done a great job. It's the biggest nat gas producer in Canada, but he doesn't like exposure to the nat gas price in Canada. It trades at 7x PE and is worth that already, so there's little upside.

COMMENT

Is a foreign play, so he pays little attention to it. His company is focused on Canadian companies. He's sure CDR has fine managers. Doesn't know that much about it.

BUY

Shares have come back in the past month, because TOU announced a secondary offering for their 13% stake in TPZ, but the offering closed last week. So, shares should move better. Canny management team. They have royalties on quality assets and much exposure to the Clearwater. They also own infrastructure assets and pays a good dividend.

DON'T BUY

It's so hard to build pipelines in Canada, so it you hold these stocks, you should receive strong returns. He prefers Pembina, and he ranks TC at #3 which faces high yields and slower growth. TRP acts like a bond, which is hitting the share price.

WATCH

It was spun out of TC Energy and the Keystone assets and pipeline. Is perceived as little growth, just the dividend. The Canadian segment of the Keystone pipeline is largely built, but the US operation offers more growth and potential. Is interesting.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Aug 05/26, Up 8%)

Is a crude oil infrastructure play, touching 25% of western Canadian oil. It operates terminals and export facilities and contract-based services, so not tied to the oil price. If more pipelines are built, GEI would supply storage. Pays a nice dividend.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Aug 05/26, Up 26%)

Is very tied to the oil price. They announced last August they will go ahead with Redford 2; they brought in Redford 1 on time and on budget, which is remarkable. Redford 2 will boost growth by 18% when it comes online next year. CJ boasts the lowest decline rate in Canada. Pays a good dividend around 6%.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Aug 05/26, Up 25%)

It's tied to the oil price. They've had great drilling results the past two years. Trades at 5x PE.

WEAK BUY

It's a show-me story on the street after buying Ranger Oil a few years ago and the market detested the deal. Last year, BTE sold the company to pay down their debt. Last January, they replaced the CEO. They used their cash to buy back shares, which he liked. The duration of their drilling inventory is unclear, but trades at a cheap 4.5x PE instead of 6x. 

WEAK BUY

Doesn't know why they don't just concentrate on their Netherlands business, which is good. He doesn't pay attention to companies operating outside Canada, but it's a good time to own exposure to European gas given supplies there and the potential for a price spike there.

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