Stock Opinions by Brian Madden - Stockchase Experts
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Brian Madden @

On Stockchase since : Aug 2016

Senior VP & Portfolio Manager at Goodreid Investment Council

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Stock Opinions by Brian Madden - Stockchase Experts

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COMMENT
General Market Comment 

October 24, 2018

Today was a rough ride for stocks. We've reached a turning point in sentiment, that's for sure. The markets took out the lows. We're in the middle of a correction, just like in January. The lack of volatility has lulled some investors. We're not out of the woods yet. The TSX is down 8% YTD. Maybe we could rally by the end of 2018, but to recover that much is a tall order. He expects Canadian earnings, coming in early November, to be good. The US Midterms are in two weeks, a time which is usually good for American stocks. He thinks the Midterms are a wild card. Maybe the Democrats will win, though polls have been wrong. Canadian interest rates went up today. That's the right move. Unemployment is at historic lows and inflation is still contained. Low rates are not needed anymore.

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Today was a rough ride for stocks. We've reached a turning point in sentiment, that's for sure. The markets took out the lows. We're in the middle of a correction, just like in January. The lack of volatility has lulled some investors. We're not out of the woods yet. The TSX is down 8% YTD. Maybe we could rally by the end of 2018, but to recover that much is a tall order. He expects Canadian earnings, coming in early November, to be good. The US Midterms are in two weeks, a time which is usually good for American stocks. He thinks the Midterms are a wild card. Maybe the Democrats will win, though polls have been wrong. Canadian interest rates went up today. That's the right move. Unemployment is at historic lows and inflation is still contained. Low rates are not needed anymore.

Unknown
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Brian Madden

Senior VP , Goodreid Investment ...

Price Price
$0.020
Owned Owned
Unknown

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BUY

They met yesterday's earnings. They've come a long way in past years to become the best railroad in its class. This has outperformed the TSX in the past 16 of 22 years. Trades at 17x earnings. Expects earnings growth. Definitely
consider it, especially for the long term. He respects it.

Transportation
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They met yesterday's earnings. They've come a long way in past years to become the best railroad in its class. This has outperformed the TSX in the past 16 of 22 years. Trades at 17x earnings. Expects earnings growth. Definitely
consider it, especially for the long term. He respects it.

Transportation
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Brian Madden

Senior VP , Goodreid Investment ...

Price Price
$107.790
Owned Owned
No

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BUY
Toronto Dominion(TD-T) 

October 24, 2018

Still confident with TD. It continues to trade at a premium to its peers due to its outsized presence in the States. It's one of three Canadian banks he owns and he's very happy to. 3.7% yield.

banks
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Still confident with TD. It continues to trade at a premium to its peers due to its outsized presence in the States. It's one of three Canadian banks he owns and he's very happy to. 3.7% yield.

banks
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Brian Madden

Senior VP , Goodreid Investment ...

Price Price
$72.460
Owned Owned
Yes

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BUY

He owns the holding company instead. A great company, well managed. BIP is not meant to be a capital appreciator and will trade within the $25 range. But own this for a stable, tax-advanted cash flow through its safe, sustainable dividend of 5%. 

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS
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He owns the holding company instead. A great company, well managed. BIP is not meant to be a capital appreciator and will trade within the $25 range. But own this for a stable, tax-advanted cash flow through its safe, sustainable dividend of 5%. 

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS
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Brian Madden

Senior VP , Goodreid Investment ...

Price Price
$50.570
Owned Owned
No

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BUY
Royal Bank(RY-T) 

October 24, 2018

The Canadian banks are value creators. RY is the granddaddy of them all. Ignore the short-term pullbacks and consider 5 years or more. RY will eventually rise above $150. The banks always grow their dividends around 5-7% annually. RY is the leading capital markets business and commercial and personal bank in Canada as well as wealth management. They have a good U.S. business. If you bought this recently before the correction, just hold on.

banks
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The Canadian banks are value creators. RY is the granddaddy of them all. Ignore the short-term pullbacks and consider 5 years or more. RY will eventually rise above $150. The banks always grow their dividends around 5-7% annually. RY is the leading capital markets business and commercial and personal bank in Canada as well as wealth management. They have a good U.S. business. If you bought this recently before the correction, just hold on.

banks
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Brian Madden

Senior VP , Goodreid Investment ...

Price Price
$94.600
Owned Owned
Yes

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COMMENT
George Weston Ltd.(WN-T) 

October 24, 2018

They just bought Choice Properties reit from Loblaw in a complicated deal. This creates a lot of cash flow that will likely go towards M&A. He suspects WN will invest in healthcare to synergize with the supermarkets. The bakeries, though, make up only 6% of the business and he's not thrilled by them.

food processing
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They just bought Choice Properties reit from Loblaw in a complicated deal. This creates a lot of cash flow that will likely go towards M&A. He suspects WN will invest in healthcare to synergize with the supermarkets. The bakeries, though, make up only 6% of the business and he's not thrilled by them.

food processing
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Brian Madden

Senior VP , Goodreid Investment ...

Price Price
$91.570
Owned Owned
Unknown

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DON'T BUY
Altagas Ltd(ALA-T) 

October 24, 2018

The 10% dividend isn't safe. They bought WGL in 2016 and this expensive deal just closed. The market didn't like it. ALA now has a ton of debt and it's paying it down by spinning off the Canadian assets. The market gave it a giant yawn, so ALA had to lower the IPO price. He doesn't like the management. Look elsewhere for a stable divide

oil/gas
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The 10% dividend isn't safe. They bought WGL in 2016 and this expensive deal just closed. The market didn't like it. ALA now has a ton of debt and it's paying it down by spinning off the Canadian assets. The market gave it a giant yawn, so ALA had to lower the IPO price. He doesn't like the management. Look elsewhere for a stable divide

oil/gas
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Brian Madden

Senior VP , Goodreid Investment ...

Price Price
$21.660
Owned Owned
No

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DON'T BUY
Laurentian Bank(LB-T) 

October 24, 2018

A troubled bank. Problems with mortgages last year sparked a plunge in investor confidence and a stock sell-off.
He avoids laggards in a sector.

banks
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A troubled bank. Problems with mortgages last year sparked a plunge in investor confidence and a stock sell-off.
He avoids laggards in a sector.

banks
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Brian Madden

Senior VP , Goodreid Investment ...

Price Price
$40.770
Owned Owned
No

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TOP PICK
North West Company(NWC-T) 

October 24, 2018

Deals in staples with inelastic demand, running stores in Alaska and remote northern Canada and isolated parts of the South Pacific and Caribbean selling food and general merchandise. These areas are so remote that there is no competition from e-commerce. These are natural monopolies, so NWC enjoys higher margins than a grocer. They're rebuilding their Caribbean stores after the 2017 hurricanes. (4.55% dividend yield, Analysts; Price Target $32.40)

merchandising/lodging
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Deals in staples with inelastic demand, running stores in Alaska and remote northern Canada and isolated parts of the South Pacific and Caribbean selling food and general merchandise. These areas are so remote that there is no competition from e-commerce. These are natural monopolies, so NWC enjoys higher margins than a grocer. They're rebuilding their Caribbean stores after the 2017 hurricanes. (4.55% dividend yield, Analysts; Price Target $32.40)

merchandising/lodging
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Brian Madden

Senior VP , Goodreid Investment ...

Price Price
$28.170
Owned Owned
Yes

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TOP PICK
Fortis Inc.(FTS-T) 

October 24, 2018

Recently added to his position. Offers non-cyclical stability. 97% of their assets are rate-regulated which insulates shareholders from changes in commodity prices and economic conditions. It pays a consistent and growing dividend which will continue to grow at 6% annually in the next five years. Thre's also a $17 billion capital expansion plan. (4.17% dividend yield, Analysts' Price Target $47.43)

electrical utilities
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Recently added to his position. Offers non-cyclical stability. 97% of their assets are rate-regulated which insulates shareholders from changes in commodity prices and economic conditions. It pays a consistent and growing dividend which will continue to grow at 6% annually in the next five years. Thre's also a $17 billion capital expansion plan. (4.17% dividend yield, Analysts' Price Target $47.43)

electrical utilities
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Brian Madden

Senior VP , Goodreid Investment ...

Price Price
$43.840
Owned Owned
Yes

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COMMENT
Enbridge(ENB-T) 

October 24, 2018

Preferred  Enbridge  shares: If you're looking for a preferred energy stock that pays a big dividend, then look at this. The preferred share market is complicated, some being extremely interest rate sensitive. Others are called "rate resets" which temper the impact of rate increases. ENB preferreds will never go much above $25 (nor fall from it).

oil/gas pipelines
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Preferred  Enbridge  shares: If you're looking for a preferred energy stock that pays a big dividend, then look at this. The preferred share market is complicated, some being extremely interest rate sensitive. Others are called "rate resets" which temper the impact of rate increases. ENB preferreds will never go much above $25 (nor fall from it).

oil/gas pipelines
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Brian Madden

Senior VP , Goodreid Investment ...

Price Price
$41.170
Owned Owned
Unknown

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PAST TOP PICK
Enbridge(ENB-T) 

October 24, 2018

(Past Top Pick Oct. 18, 2017, Down 13%)  This hasn't worked out yet. Interest rates have taken a bite out of the valuation of interest-sensitive stocks, and their Line 3 replacement pipeline faced more opposition than he expected. Also, the US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission invalidated the cost of capital advantage that ENB was getting from a complex structure of listed limited partnerships. At least, this will now clean up that messy corporate structure. They are integrating their Spectra Energy deal. The dividend is safe and will grow. Also, the rotation into defensive names like this may be a tailwind.

oil/gas pipelines
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(Past Top Pick Oct. 18, 2017, Down 13%)  This hasn't worked out yet. Interest rates have taken a bite out of the valuation of interest-sensitive stocks, and their Line 3 replacement pipeline faced more opposition than he expected. Also, the US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission invalidated the cost of capital advantage that ENB was getting from a complex structure of listed limited partnerships. At least, this will now clean up that messy corporate structure. They are integrating their Spectra Energy deal. The dividend is safe and will grow. Also, the rotation into defensive names like this may be a tailwind.

oil/gas pipelines
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0 comments
Brian Madden

Senior VP , Goodreid Investment ...

Price Price
$41.170
Owned Owned
Yes

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PAST TOP PICK
Bank of Nova Scotia(BNS-T) 

October 24, 2018

(Past Top Pick Oct. 18, 2017, Down 10%) They have a large presence in Latin America in a time when emerging markets are under pressure. But this is also a secular growth opportunity. It now lags the Canadian banks, but the laggard in one year often leads it the next.

banks
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(Past Top Pick Oct. 18, 2017, Down 10%) They have a large presence in Latin America in a time when emerging markets are under pressure. But this is also a secular growth opportunity. It now lags the Canadian banks, but the laggard in one year often leads it the next.

banks
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Brian Madden

Senior VP , Goodreid Investment ...

Price Price
$69.150
Owned Owned
Yes

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PAST TOP PICK
CGI Group (A)(GIB.A-T) 

October 24, 2018

(Past Top Pick Oct. 18, 2017, Up 17%)  They do IT outsourcing and consulting. They offer modest, but accelerating organic growth. It's very profitable and generates a lot of cash flow. It does some small tuck-in acqusitions. Continues to like it. A lower-beta stock than its tech peers.

consulting
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(Past Top Pick Oct. 18, 2017, Up 17%)  They do IT outsourcing and consulting. They offer modest, but accelerating organic growth. It's very profitable and generates a lot of cash flow. It does some small tuck-in acqusitions. Continues to like it. A lower-beta stock than its tech peers.

consulting
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Brian Madden

Senior VP , Goodreid Investment ...

Price Price
$78.180
Owned Owned
Yes

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BUY
Nutrien Ltd.(NTR-T) 

October 24, 2018

Likes it. It's the biggest crop nutriens player in the world, specifically potash and nitrogens, segments which are improving rapidly, and phosphates less so. As a condition of their merger, $5 billion assets were sold and those may  be re-deployed into retail network expansion in South America like Brazil, a huge market. There's also $500 million in synergies to be captured which they are doing ahead of schedule. Expect dividend growth, acquisitions and share buybacks.

agriculture
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Likes it. It's the biggest crop nutriens player in the world, specifically potash and nitrogens, segments which are improving rapidly, and phosphates less so. As a condition of their merger, $5 billion assets were sold and those may  be re-deployed into retail network expansion in South America like Brazil, a huge market. There's also $500 million in synergies to be captured which they are doing ahead of schedule. Expect dividend growth, acquisitions and share buybacks.

agriculture
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Brian Madden

Senior VP , Goodreid Investment ...

Price Price
$66.200
Owned Owned
Yes

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