Brian Madden
Member since: Aug '16
Senior VP & Portfolio Manager at
Goodreid Investment Council
Goodreid Investment Council
537 Opinions
Latest Top Picks
(A Top Pick Aug 01/18, Down 11%) Still likes it, but was stuck in a corporate drama when the managers failed to sell it at the wrong time, when oil prices peaked a year ago. They got a few lousy bids for actually productive assets. Now, it's business as usual, producing 52,000 barrels a day from Colombia that get international pricing. They're growing production 20% a year and growing cash flow per share by 9%. They also buy back stock and don't carry debt on the books. Trades at 6x earnings. The market disagrees, but he's happy to hold it.
(A Top Pick Aug 01/18, Up 29%) Sold it in the spring because it was getting fully valued, but made a 20%+ return.
(A Top Pick Aug 01/18, Up 22%) A long-term core holding. It's a secular growth story. BAM benefits from a secular flow of funds, high fees and their breadth of expertise whenever someone is selling a birdge or tunnel. It's partially rate-sensitive, because some assets are long-duration like a bond. No, it's not a bond proxy, but a secular growth story.
A secular growth stock he's long owned. The business model is price sharply on fuel to drive traffic, then lure customers into modern shops to buy wide-margin cigarettes, coffee and candy (3-5x better than selling gas). They do well buying businesses and synergizing them, too. But they are pivoting more to organic growth with digital loyalty for instance. (Analysts’ price target is $90.00)
A contrarian pick. CNQ is Canada's biggest oil and natural gas producer. They have audited, proven reserve life of 27.7 years (current production rates until the lands are depleted to hydro-carbons). And yet, this trades at 10.2x earnings, which means the market ascribes zero value to the last 17 years of oil. This yields 4.7% which has grown 24% in the last 5 years. (Analysts’ price target is $46.17)
1
0
0
0
0
Your ReactionSignal
Opinion
Expert
Chart
COMMENT
COMMENT
August 7, 2019
Not every asset class, like gold, bonds and the US dollar, has been volatile this week, but actually strong. It's very difficult to invest for income now in an era of record-low interest rates--it's a race to the bottom. The low rates push investors to invest in stocks, especially retirees or those approaching retirement. The naive approach is to find the highest-yielding stocks, which is like getting a sugar high off sweets. You need to look at many other factors like sound business fundamentals in a company/stock.
Not every asset class, like gold, bonds and the US dollar, has been volatile this week, but actually strong. It's very difficult to invest for income now in an era of record-low interest rates--it's a race to the bottom. The low rates push investors to invest in stocks, especially retirees or those approaching retirement. The naive approach is to find the highest-yielding stocks, which is like getting a sugar high off sweets. You need to look at many other factors like sound business fundamentals in a company/stock.
Brian Madden
Senior VP & Portfolio Manager, Goodreid Investment Council
BUY
BUY
August 7, 2019
He recently bought it. There's lot of room to run. It's a growth stock based on geographic expansion. Horton's is a brand here, though still short of market saturation. They now have a deal with Beyond Meat to provide meatless items. QSR is also using an app to expand revenues. Not only opening stores, but QSR is also acquiring other restaurants; he expects a pizza acquisition. You can buy and hold this a long time.
He recently bought it. There's lot of room to run. It's a growth stock based on geographic expansion. Horton's is a brand here, though still short of market saturation. They now have a deal with Beyond Meat to provide meatless items. QSR is also using an app to expand revenues. Not only opening stores, but QSR is also acquiring other restaurants; he expects a pizza acquisition. You can buy and hold this a long time.
food services
WAIT
WAIT
August 7, 2019
It's been attracting negative headlines--fatalities in a U.S. pipeline, as well as regulatory delays in line 3 into the U.S., their biggest expansion, and government opposition to replace line 5. Yields about 7%, but it's safe. Once the dark clouds pass about pipelines, the share price will recover.
It's been attracting negative headlines--fatalities in a U.S. pipeline, as well as regulatory delays in line 3 into the U.S., their biggest expansion, and government opposition to replace line 5. Yields about 7%, but it's safe. Once the dark clouds pass about pipelines, the share price will recover.
oil/gas pipelines
COMMENT
COMMENT
August 7, 2019
Are puts effective if a crash is imminent? If he could predict a crash, he would be super-rich. He doesn't think a crash is imminent, but a correction is happening now which is normal and needed. Yes, puts are effective if a crash is imminent. It's like buying insurance for your house, though puts are very expensive. It's not a bad strategy, but there are better ways to protect a portfolio, like owning bonds, gold and items priced in US dollars. Also if you trade puts, you need to constantly keep an eye on the markets and to buy puts when volatility is low, like two months ago (and not now).
Are puts effective if a crash is imminent? If he could predict a crash, he would be super-rich. He doesn't think a crash is imminent, but a correction is happening now which is normal and needed. Yes, puts are effective if a crash is imminent. It's like buying insurance for your house, though puts are very expensive. It's not a bad strategy, but there are better ways to protect a portfolio, like owning bonds, gold and items priced in US dollars. Also if you trade puts, you need to constantly keep an eye on the markets and to buy puts when volatility is low, like two months ago (and not now).
Brian Madden
Senior VP & Portfolio Manager, Goodreid Investment Council
COMMENT
COMMENT
August 7, 2019
Will the 13% dividend get cut and drive down the share price? It's an interesting stock that he has researched. The dividend is safe, yes, based on his stress test. VET isn't exposed to depressed Alberta oil prices (WCS) so that's good. The market hates Canadian oil, whether or not assets are in Canada or not (VET's case).
Will the 13% dividend get cut and drive down the share price? It's an interesting stock that he has researched. The dividend is safe, yes, based on his stress test. VET isn't exposed to depressed Alberta oil prices (WCS) so that's good. The market hates Canadian oil, whether or not assets are in Canada or not (VET's case).
oil/gas
BUY
BUY
August 7, 2019
He confesses that gold is an enigma to him. Gold has now awoken from its slumber. Its producers have underperformed since 2011. He's exposed cautiously through FNV-T, though he would be comfortable owning AEM. Good managers with assets around the world and wisely acquire other companies. Their assets are in safe countries, not banana republics, which is a problem for some gold producers.
He confesses that gold is an enigma to him. Gold has now awoken from its slumber. Its producers have underperformed since 2011. He's exposed cautiously through FNV-T, though he would be comfortable owning AEM. Good managers with assets around the world and wisely acquire other companies. Their assets are in safe countries, not banana republics, which is a problem for some gold producers.
precious metals
COMMENT
COMMENT
August 7, 2019
A utility or pipeline to buy that isn't ENB-T. A utility offers better diversification than a pipeline, and is rate-sensitive and not commodity-sensitive. So go with a utility.
A utility or pipeline to buy that isn't ENB-T. A utility offers better diversification than a pipeline, and is rate-sensitive and not commodity-sensitive. So go with a utility.
Brian Madden
Senior VP & Portfolio Manager, Goodreid Investment Council
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
August 7, 2019
(A Top Pick Aug 01/18, Down 11%) Still likes it, but was stuck in a corporate drama when the managers failed to sell it at the wrong time, when oil prices peaked a year ago. They got a few lousy bids for actually productive assets. Now, it's business as usual, producing 52,000 barrels a day from Colombia that get international pricing. They're growing production 20% a year and growing cash flow per share by 9%. They also buy back stock and don't carry debt on the books. Trades at 6x earnings. The market disagrees, but he's happy to hold it.
(A Top Pick Aug 01/18, Down 11%) Still likes it, but was stuck in a corporate drama when the managers failed to sell it at the wrong time, when oil prices peaked a year ago. They got a few lousy bids for actually productive assets. Now, it's business as usual, producing 52,000 barrels a day from Colombia that get international pricing. They're growing production 20% a year and growing cash flow per share by 9%. They also buy back stock and don't carry debt on the books. Trades at 6x earnings. The market disagrees, but he's happy to hold it.
oil/gas
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
August 7, 2019
(A Top Pick Aug 01/18, Up 29%) Sold it in the spring because it was getting fully valued, but made a 20%+ return.
(A Top Pick Aug 01/18, Up 29%) Sold it in the spring because it was getting fully valued, but made a 20%+ return.
food stores
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
August 7, 2019
(A Top Pick Aug 01/18, Up 22%) A long-term core holding. It's a secular growth story. BAM benefits from a secular flow of funds, high fees and their breadth of expertise whenever someone is selling a birdge or tunnel. It's partially rate-sensitive, because some assets are long-duration like a bond. No, it's not a bond proxy, but a secular growth story.
(A Top Pick Aug 01/18, Up 22%) A long-term core holding. It's a secular growth story. BAM benefits from a secular flow of funds, high fees and their breadth of expertise whenever someone is selling a birdge or tunnel. It's partially rate-sensitive, because some assets are long-duration like a bond. No, it's not a bond proxy, but a secular growth story.
management/diversified
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
August 7, 2019
He sold it last year, concerned that the cycle was rolling over, based on several company metrics. They had a good 5-year run of organic growth and ended. They have a string of earnings missings and the market is punishing it. That said, the 6.5% dividend is safe, but this isn't enough to own this stock.
He sold it last year, concerned that the cycle was rolling over, based on several company metrics. They had a good 5-year run of organic growth and ended. They have a string of earnings missings and the market is punishing it. That said, the 6.5% dividend is safe, but this isn't enough to own this stock.
Automotive
WEAK BUY
WEAK BUY
August 7, 2019
A great stock in an unloved sector. The market hates oil stocks, but the global oil addiction continues even with the prevalence of e-cars. SU yields over 4% that is grows regularly. Buffet is an investor. He likes its cost efficiency and most importantly they have downstream integration, so they can refine their own oil and get interntional pricing, not the low WCS price. Buy more if this? He can't say; it depends on your portfolio. Don't double-down because it's now cheap.
A great stock in an unloved sector. The market hates oil stocks, but the global oil addiction continues even with the prevalence of e-cars. SU yields over 4% that is grows regularly. Buffet is an investor. He likes its cost efficiency and most importantly they have downstream integration, so they can refine their own oil and get interntional pricing, not the low WCS price. Buy more if this? He can't say; it depends on your portfolio. Don't double-down because it's now cheap.
integrated oils
HOLD
HOLD
August 7, 2019
Dividend is approaching 14%. Too good to be true? No. He used to own this. Trades at 0.6x book value, an all-time low. Dividend is safe. LNG will get built on the west coast, so be patient and get paid to wait.
Dividend is approaching 14%. Too good to be true? No. He used to own this. Trades at 0.6x book value, an all-time low. Dividend is safe. LNG will get built on the west coast, so be patient and get paid to wait.
oil/gas
COMMENT
COMMENT
August 7, 2019
He sees companies with better diversification outside Canada (the big Canadian banks), though CWB is generally fine and so is its current share price.
He sees companies with better diversification outside Canada (the big Canadian banks), though CWB is generally fine and so is its current share price.
banks
COMMENT
COMMENT
August 7, 2019
Sell CGI and buy Agnico and gold now? He's owned this for years and done well with it. Gold is a useful hedge, and Agnico Eagle is a quality miner (see his comments in this show). GIB stock will go higher. This trade makes sense.
Sell CGI and buy Agnico and gold now? He's owned this for years and done well with it. Gold is a useful hedge, and Agnico Eagle is a quality miner (see his comments in this show). GIB stock will go higher. This trade makes sense.
consulting
Comments
10000
© Stockchase Inc.
5
Stock saved to your watch list successfully.View Watch List
