Stock Opinions by Brian Madden - Stockchase Experts
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Brian Madden @

On Stockchase since : Aug 2016

Senior VP & Portfolio Manager at Goodreid Investment Council

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Stock Opinions by Brian Madden - Stockchase Experts

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COMMENT
General Market Comment 

January 9, 2019

Positive going into 2019? He was cautious going into 2018, de-risking portfolios, as we approached the late stages of the economic cycle. Some of those concerns came home to roost in the fourth quarter. Prices, valuation, and sentiment are markedly lower. Risks and rewards are more balanced for 2019. Recession risk is still out there, but we could still have a soft landing, and we have a cushion with contraction of P/E multiples last year.
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Positive going into 2019? He was cautious going into 2018, de-risking portfolios, as we approached the late stages of the economic cycle. Some of those concerns came home to roost in the fourth quarter. Prices, valuation, and sentiment are markedly lower. Risks and rewards are more balanced for 2019. Recession risk is still out there, but we could still have a soft landing, and we have a cushion with contraction of P/E multiples last year.
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Brian Madden

Senior VP , Goodreid Investment ...

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
General Market Comment 

January 9, 2019

Seeing buying opportunities? Yes. They have a blank sheet every single day. If they wouldn't buy it today, they wouldn't own it.
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Seeing buying opportunities? Yes. They have a blank sheet every single day. If they wouldn't buy it today, they wouldn't own it.
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Brian Madden

Senior VP , Goodreid Investment ...

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
General Market Comment 

January 9, 2019

Market vs. US Fed. The minutes are signalling a certain amount of discord on the committee, which is not unusual. The vote needed to be unanimous to demonstrate solidarity and stand up to the bullying White House. Foreshadowing of less hawkishness going forward.
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Market vs. US Fed. The minutes are signalling a certain amount of discord on the committee, which is not unusual. The vote needed to be unanimous to demonstrate solidarity and stand up to the bullying White House. Foreshadowing of less hawkishness going forward.
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Brian Madden

Senior VP , Goodreid Investment ...

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
General Market Comment 

January 9, 2019

Canadian interest rates staying put. Represents the totality of all market conditions. It's more complex than just one variable. Extent of credit, bond yields rising, equity conditions all have an impact. When the markets, bank lending channels, and bond market are doing some of the tightening for you, you can take your foot off the brake.
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Canadian interest rates staying put. Represents the totality of all market conditions. It's more complex than just one variable. Extent of credit, bond yields rising, equity conditions all have an impact. When the markets, bank lending channels, and bond market are doing some of the tightening for you, you can take your foot off the brake.
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Brian Madden

Senior VP , Goodreid Investment ...

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
Unknown

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BUY
CGI Group (A)(GIB.A-T) 

January 9, 2019

One of Canada's largest tech companies. Continues to like it. Valuation has crept up, trades at 18x earnings, but is quite profitable returning high teens ROE. Rose quickly and consistently, with 9% compound growth rate. "Untech" tech stock. Shook off huge rotation from growth to value in the summer. Unloved because organic growth rate is tepid. Tuck-in acquisition strategy working nicely. IP30 strategy is margin accretive. Would be a buyer here. Despite lack of respect from the street, has gone up 10 years in a row.
consulting
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One of Canada's largest tech companies. Continues to like it. Valuation has crept up, trades at 18x earnings, but is quite profitable returning high teens ROE. Rose quickly and consistently, with 9% compound growth rate. "Untech" tech stock. Shook off huge rotation from growth to value in the summer. Unloved because organic growth rate is tepid. Tuck-in acquisition strategy working nicely. IP30 strategy is margin accretive. Would be a buyer here. Despite lack of respect from the street, has gone up 10 years in a row.
consulting
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Brian Madden

Senior VP , Goodreid Investment ...

Price Price
$85.240
Owned Owned
Yes

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BUY on WEAKNESS
Toronto Dominion(TD-T) 

January 9, 2019

Core part of his portfolio. Weak housing in Canada is a risk. Though lower house prices affect the mortgage books of banks, and this will be a headwind, TD isn't a one-trick pony. Good commercial loan book, plus significant business in US in commercial and personal banking. Also nice wealth management business, which is going gangbusters. Below 10x earnings. Buy the dips on Canadian banks.
banks
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Core part of his portfolio. Weak housing in Canada is a risk. Though lower house prices affect the mortgage books of banks, and this will be a headwind, TD isn't a one-trick pony. Good commercial loan book, plus significant business in US in commercial and personal banking. Also nice wealth management business, which is going gangbusters. Below 10x earnings. Buy the dips on Canadian banks.
banks
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Brian Madden

Senior VP , Goodreid Investment ...

Price Price
$68.140
Owned Owned
Yes

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COMMENT
General Market Comment 

January 9, 2019

Housing starts weren't as low as expected. Only one month of data, need to see more data before you can call a trend. Starts are only a fraction of the housing market. More importantly, prices are coming down which  affects the banks' mortgage books, so this will be a headwind.

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Housing starts weren't as low as expected. Only one month of data, need to see more data before you can call a trend. Starts are only a fraction of the housing market. More importantly, prices are coming down which  affects the banks' mortgage books, so this will be a headwind.

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Brian Madden

Senior VP , Goodreid Investment ...

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
Unknown

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DON'T BUY
A good bank, but he questions if it's best in breed. Best in breed involves dominant industry position, sustainable competitive advantage, very strong management, high margins and ROC. There are better examples in the banking industry. Not very diversified geographically. Wealth management, insurance, and capital markets are voids in its portfolio.
banks
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A good bank, but he questions if it's best in breed. Best in breed involves dominant industry position, sustainable competitive advantage, very strong management, high margins and ROC. There are better examples in the banking industry. Not very diversified geographically. Wealth management, insurance, and capital markets are voids in its portfolio.
banks
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Brian Madden

Senior VP , Goodreid Investment ...

Price Price
$28.300
Owned Owned
No

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DON'T BUY
Because Canada runs a well-regulated banking oligopoly, he has no doubt that in due time, it will be a 150B company. But it's not worth this now. It's grown up, and is now playing in the big boys sandbox. They've accomplished a lot over the last 10 years. Most importantly, they've improved their ROE, the primary driver of valuation for a bank, and the market has recognized and rewarded this already. Prefers larger, more diversified banks.
banks
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Because Canada runs a well-regulated banking oligopoly, he has no doubt that in due time, it will be a 150B company. But it's not worth this now. It's grown up, and is now playing in the big boys sandbox. They've accomplished a lot over the last 10 years. Most importantly, they've improved their ROE, the primary driver of valuation for a bank, and the market has recognized and rewarded this already. Prefers larger, more diversified banks.
banks
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Brian Madden

Senior VP , Goodreid Investment ...

Price Price
$58.690
Owned Owned
No

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WATCH
Cineplex Inc(CGX-T) 

January 9, 2019

A controversial stock. Has performed badly, after being a market darling. Under secular threat, as people flock to streaming. Is trying to reinvent itself, pivoting to new revenue sources such as liquor and the "Rec Room." Tapping into digitization. Likes the strategy, but it's too early. Look for signs that share price is turning around, such as earnings momentum and beating forecasts. Beware the dead cat bounce.
other services
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A controversial stock. Has performed badly, after being a market darling. Under secular threat, as people flock to streaming. Is trying to reinvent itself, pivoting to new revenue sources such as liquor and the "Rec Room." Tapping into digitization. Likes the strategy, but it's too early. Look for signs that share price is turning around, such as earnings momentum and beating forecasts. Beware the dead cat bounce.
other services
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Brian Madden

Senior VP , Goodreid Investment ...

Price Price
$26.330
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
Rail is not the preferred way to move oil, because it's expensive. One of the best long-term stewards of capital. Reluctant to put money into rail cars, which will be obsolete as soon as pipelines get built. Some upside to this stock from crude by rail, but not overly material.
Transportation
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Rail is not the preferred way to move oil, because it's expensive. One of the best long-term stewards of capital. Reluctant to put money into rail cars, which will be obsolete as soon as pipelines get built. Some upside to this stock from crude by rail, but not overly material.
Transportation
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Brian Madden

Senior VP , Goodreid Investment ...

Price Price
$104.970
Owned Owned
Unknown

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PAST TOP PICK
Shopify Inc.(SHOP-T) 

January 9, 2019

(A Top Pick Jan 17/18, Up 38%) Exited this trade in July when it was even higher, as they were de-risking portfolios. The valuation was high, and some concern about churn in the customer base.
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(A Top Pick Jan 17/18, Up 38%) Exited this trade in July when it was even higher, as they were de-risking portfolios. The valuation was high, and some concern about churn in the customer base.
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Brian Madden

Senior VP , Goodreid Investment ...

Price Price
$196.360
Owned Owned
No

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PAST TOP PICK
Franco-Nevada Corp.(FNV-T) 

January 9, 2019

(A Top Pick Jan 17/18, Down 5%) Believe in strategy and management team and the assets (royalties). Way to get exposure to gold, which he's constructive on, without exposure to mining companies. Likes that they're diversifying away from gold. Delivering great year over year growth. Developing one of the biggest copper mines in the world. Continues to buy.
precious metals
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(A Top Pick Jan 17/18, Down 5%) Believe in strategy and management team and the assets (royalties). Way to get exposure to gold, which he's constructive on, without exposure to mining companies. Likes that they're diversifying away from gold. Delivering great year over year growth. Developing one of the biggest copper mines in the world. Continues to buy.
precious metals
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Brian Madden

Senior VP , Goodreid Investment ...

Price Price
$92.270
Owned Owned
Yes

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PAST TOP PICK
Bank of Nova Scotia(BNS-T) 

January 9, 2019

(A Top Pick Jan 17/18, Down 10%) Didn't pay off last year, but none of the banks did. Likes it because they deployed a lot of capital.
banks
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(A Top Pick Jan 17/18, Down 10%) Didn't pay off last year, but none of the banks did. Likes it because they deployed a lot of capital.
banks
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Brian Madden

Senior VP , Goodreid Investment ...

Price Price
$70.470
Owned Owned
Yes

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DON'T BUY
Imperial Oil(IMO-T) 

January 9, 2019

Produce oil upstream and refine it. Stock under pressure since 2014, as most oil companies. Financially strong. Insulated from weak or declining oil prices, as they're integrated. Not enamoured with their asset base or their management, as they are with Suncor. Want to be careful with your exposure to the oil patch. Pipeline shortage and WTI discount are issues. Integrated companies like this are better than pure-play.
integrated oils
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Produce oil upstream and refine it. Stock under pressure since 2014, as most oil companies. Financially strong. Insulated from weak or declining oil prices, as they're integrated. Not enamoured with their asset base or their management, as they are with Suncor. Want to be careful with your exposure to the oil patch. Pipeline shortage and WTI discount are issues. Integrated companies like this are better than pure-play.
integrated oils
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Brian Madden

Senior VP , Goodreid Investment ...

Price Price
$35.280
Owned Owned
No

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