Brian Madden

It seems they are. Whether they welcome it or not is another story. The year has started off with an ironic twist, which is that the on-again, off-again clumsy aspects of the MAGA economic agenda are really rattling investors. And none more so than in the US, which is the ironic part. 

The other major equity indices worldwide pretty much are all outpacing the S&P 500, and most are in positive territory YTD. It's a function of a tremendous amount of confusion. "Uncertainty" is the buzzword of the year, for both households and businesses on both sides of the border. It's sort of boomeranged back at the US administration because the impacts seems to be felt most acutely in the US.

That's true. A month or two ago, the degree of uncertainty around Canadian federal leadership renewal would have been much lower. The polls had been predicting a landslide victory for the opposition. Now, with Mark Carney, the polls are neck and neck.

As for a reaction in the Canadian stock market, we've been talking about a 2025 election since the middle of last year. We knew there would be policy change, no matter which party wins. Realistically, only plausible direction for economic policy has to be in the direction of pro-growth, less red tape, smaller government, less tax. Generally speaking, positive for investors. Markets will probably take this in stride when we go back to trading on Monday.

He'd consider owning. People are on the sidelines because iron ore is used to make steel, and tariffs have been slapped on. Tremendous compounder over 2 decades; high teens total shareholder return, mostly from dividends. Dividend is highly variable, though reliable, current yield is ~6.7%. To get a sense of the actual dividend, take a 10-year average, which puts it close to an 8% yield over time.

At 3x book value, trading below 5-year average of 3.4x. Long-life assets, tons of reserves, producing below capacity.

Eliminated dividend in 2015, reinstated a smaller one last summer. Has since bought back 11% of shares. Doesn't generally earn its cost of capital, and so it trades at a discount. De-leveraging balance sheet, though still not investment grade. Chart's making lower lows.

Forefront of AI revolution, which is in early innings but a long game with fits and starts. Technological superiority. DeepSeek started the uncertainty, bringing into question the capital spend by hyperscalers. 

Big run, but earnings have moved along in step, so PEG is actually less expensive than before. PE has contracted to high 20s, earnings expected to grow at a similar cadence for the next 3 years. Pullback is buyable.

Airline stocks are not long-term holds. Travel is discretionary, especially for pleasure. Most profitable part is business travel, which won't make a full recovery to pre-Covid levels. Air travel to US is suppressed. CAD at this low level doesn't bode well for overseas purchasing power. Massively leveraged balance sheet, plus looming tariffs.

Looking at it with renewed interest. Political situation has changed, license may be reinstated. That's critical to this company going forward, but also critical for Panama. Multi-decade reserve life, produces 1.5% of world's copper. Cautiously optimistic. Potential outsized upside for a risk-hungry investor.

Turned the page on money-laundering fine, but the fix won't be overnight. Likes the excess capital on the books. Applauds its plans for share buybacks, focus on capital markets, and strengthening its Canadian franchise. #1 discount brokerage platform in Canada.

Got it wrong. Sold last summer. Selling pool consumables is less cyclical and discretionary than a whole new pool. Consumer confidence didn't bounce back, Fed slower to cut rates. Still a great company.

Sold in September. Drought drove cocoa prices up. Passing prices on to consumers eventually made people close their wallets.

Pullbacks are great opportunities to add. Continues to invest in R&D. Payments is a big growth vector, still available in only a handful of countries. Secular rise in e-commerce still has room to run.

Continues to like it here. About 80-85% is office, rest is retail and parking. Occupancy around 85%, versus 96-97% pre-Covid. In his dividend growers mandate, though it may not for the foreseeable future. Shedding non-core assets. Trades ~40 cents on the dollar of book value, should attract a re-rating.

Best of breed. HQ remains in Canada, hearing message loud and clear from shareholders. Tremendous compounder, great serial acquirer. Purchase of UPS less-than-truckload still trying to be integrated to their standard. A good business, buy on sale.

Among Big 6 in Canada, more exposed to commercial lending. Commercial highs are higher in US, but lows are also higher, than in Canada. Extra credit provisioning is behind them. Likes synergies from Bank of the West. Excellent wealth franchise and growing. Formidable capital markets business is growing quickly. Strong balance sheet. Nice dividend will probably grow.

A good day to buy, despite tariffs.

Just OK. Better-managed retail out there. Essentially, everything it sells is a discretionary purchase. Also susceptible to tariff risk. Recent retail sales report in Canada shows slowing. Sidestep this one.