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Stock Opinions by Brian Madden

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COMMENT
Markets & IPOs.

Rabidly enthusiastic demand for stocks, which is shown by S&P 500 and the TSX hitting sequentially fresh all-time highs. Next week will be an interesting test of investor mettle, as that's when the enthusiastic demand collides head-on with unprecedented supply. He's referring to the SpaceX IPO, by leaps and bounds the largest IPO ever. 

Add to that the OpenAI IPO later this year, and Google recently raising $85B.

We don't know how it's all going to play out. What we do know is that history teaches us that some of these blockbuster IPOs garner a tremendous amount of attention, but don't always fare that well in their rookie season.

It can go one of 2 ways. The IPOs coming down the pipe could create a halo effect and add fuel to the fire of enthusiasm for thematically similar businesses. Or, they could compete with some of the leading index heavyweights and siphon investor $$ away.

His team is going to be watching with interest in the coming months.

DON'T BUY

Where it stands out (not in a good way) is that its ROE is middle of the pack. Riskier credit, with non-performing loan ratios higher than average. Efficiency ratio is a high-side outlier. Chart's not that great.

Prefers JPM.

BUY
Bought years ago, did extremely well. Got greedy, bought more on dip, stock keeps going down.

In the basket of companies falling victim to the "AI witch-hunt" trade. Business made obsolete by AI is nonsense. Professional engineers have legal liability, while ChatGPT does not ;)  Much of the work has to be done on the physical site. AI will be an efficiency advantage. 

Well-positioned in a number of important verticals. Increased presence in power and energy, expects defense contracts. Backlog is big and growing. Tremendous long-term grower and compounder. Trades at only 15x PE, well below historical 25x.

DON'T BUY
Sell SES before deal closes, or let shares convert to GFL?

Riskier and lower-quality in the space. Broadly speaking, waste is a need and not a want. Non-discretionary, non-cyclical. SES is a good business, but more cyclical -- regional, plus narrow focus on oilfields. Safer bet is to sell your shares before the deal closes.

He prefers, and owns, WM. Higher credit rating, more conservatively run, better mix of businesses.

SELL
Sell SES before deal closes, or let shares convert to GFL?

GFL is riskier and lower-quality in the space. Broadly speaking, waste is a need and not a want. Non-discretionary, non-cyclical. SES is a good business, but more cyclical -- regional, plus narrow focus on oilfields. Safer bet is to sell your shares before the deal closes.

He prefers, and owns, WM. Higher credit rating, more conservatively run, better mix of businesses.

WATCH
Apotex IPO.

Not trading yet, but IPO coming fairly soon. Not much of a publicly traded healthcare market in Canada, so this should attract a fair bit of attention. 

Well-positioned, generic drug manufacturer. An exciting catalyst are GLP-1 drugs, and it has the first license to sell. His firm doesn't generally buy IPOs, but they're taking a close look at this one.

BUY

Right here, right now is a good entry point for a long-term hold. Part of the AI witch-hunt trade. Competitive moat won't be eroded by agentic AI. People don't understand that writing code is not "one and done", not to mention cybersecurity concerns and complex payment systems.

Increasingly catering to larger customers. Continues to innovate and to add value to legacy markets.

DON'T BUY

Iconic athleisure wear. Men's market didn't pan out. Activist group agitating for change, but he wouldn't bet on that. Had the pole position, but leadership position has changed.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jun 25/25, Up 3%)

Never discount the important of dividends to your total return! Underwhelming, while a lot of other energy stocks have really taken off. Has "oil" in its name, but it's actually Canada's largest nat gas producer. SHEL acquisition of ARX was a watershed moment in the Canadian oil patch and, in particular, nat gas.

Still grossly undervalued.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jun 25/25, Up 12%)

Still the biggest and best global bank in the world. A good time to buy is any day that ends in "y".

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jun 25/25, Up 1%)

A buy-and-hold forever. Omnichannel retailer, as it's increasingly seeing acceleration in e-commerce and delivery channels.

DON'T BUY
Lumber stocks.

Lumber companies are not good businesses, full stop. They're commodities, and this period in time with tariffs and trade is particularly fraught. After the pandemic deck-building peak, demand and prices crashed. Tariffs have been plaguing the lumber industry almost 30 years now, his entire career; they're not going away. Canadian industry is being decimated.

As well, primary use for lumber is housing, and housing demand is still subdued because mortgage rates are still high.

A trade at best. Instead, go downstream for a company that adds value such as DBM or SJ.

PARTIAL SELL
Bought in January, stock's really jumped. What to do?

Kudos on that choice, because it's not been a market darling (since the dot-com bubble). Riding coattails of stronger players in the space, catching the halo effect. The old adage: "No one ever went broke taking a profit" -- good risk management.

Prefers, and owns, ANET.

PARTIAL SELL
Canadian banks.

Run up, so take some profits. You don't want to sell them, though. Good line of sight to double-digit total return over a cycle. Yes, we're in a "technical recession", but it's narrow and concentrated in certain parts of the economy. As well, the banks own global and US assets, and the US is not in a recession.

BUY

Biggest and best gold producer in Canada. Very low political risk. Loves its recent acquisitions. Pullback is buyable. Gold price is cooling off after meteoric rise last year, but bull run is not over.

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