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Stock Opinions by Brian Madden

COMMENT

An economic slowdown will continue, so fade the cyclicals. Avoid companies with weak credit ratings and balance sheets, because rates have shot up. Earnings last month were great, not as weak as expected, though down YOY in the US and Canada, though market sentiment shifted this month. September is known for seasonal weakness and past crashes.

Unknown
BUY
TC Energy

It's been challenging to own this long term, but things are improving--they divested their stake in their Columbia gas pipeline, freeing $5 billion, and will spin off the liquids business, which will be a long, complicated process. But this will unlock flexibility and remove some ESG taint to TRP. Shares are cheap and pay a 7.6% dividend (a record high and higher than peers like Enbridge). Trades at a discount to peers. Shares are down. All these factors set it up well.

oil / gas pipelines
BUY

One of the Brookfield affiliates; it invest in data centres, ports, etc. internationally. The world needs more infrastructure, and Washington passed an infrastructure bill last year, so there is money looking to be invested. BIP is a good combination of income (growing dividend) and growth. BIP has a funding advantage via its parent company, though theoretically there shouldn't be a wide difference in share price between the parent and their affiliates. But if shares are close, you can buy this for a taxable account; for non-taxable account, buy the cheaper one.

Energy Infrastructure, Industrials & Utilities
BUY
Coca-Cola Company

A good company, an iconic brand, pays a good dividend and offers growth. It has diversified away from soft drinks in the last decade. Doesn't own it, because he prefers Pepsi for its exposure to salty snacks.

food processing
BUY
PepsiCo
Question about Coke

A good company, an iconic brand, pays a good dividend and offers growth. It has diversified away from soft drinks in the last decade. Doesn't own it, because he prefers Pepsi for its exposure to salty snacks.

food processing
DON'T BUY
Bank of Nova Scotia

Their Latin American business has never delivered good returns, though net interest margins are juicy down there, but not enough to compensate for the risk. A new CEO (not a bank insider, which is unusual) is integrating some wealth management acquisitions, never easy to do. There's a lot on their plate. BNS has lagged the big 6 for 5 years. 

banks
BUY
NextEra Energy
NEE vs. AQN

NEE is the biggest American utility, much bigger than AQN. NEE has a huge business in electricity (Florida) which is much more stable than AQN's green energy. NEE does have a renewables business though in the US and Canada, and this holds promise. The grid will continue to get greener over time. A consistent earner and has been meeting or beating quarters much more consistently than AQN. 

electrical utilities
DON'T BUY
NEE vs. AQN

NEE is the biggest American utility, much bigger than AQN. NEE has a huge business in electricity (Florida) which is much more stable than AQN's green energy. NEE does have a renewables business though in the US and Canada, and this holds promise. The grid will continue to get greener over time. A consistent earner and has been meeting or beating quarters much more consistently than AQN. 

electrical utilities
WATCH
Nike Inc

It's on his shopping list as a rental, to hold a short (not long) term. A secular grower and dominant brand. Now and then, this goes on sale, and that's when you buy. He's researched this a lot. Has owned this in the past and is strongly considering it again.

misc consumer products
PAST TOP PICK
Tractor Supply

(A Top Pick Nov 09/22, Up 10%)

They target hobby farmers who need lawnmowers, snow blowers, livestock feed, etc. Their customers have higher than usual disposable incomes and live outside cities, so their living expenses are lower. Also, they live in remote areas away from Costcos and other shops. TSCO has 2,000 stores in the US and keep opening a hundred or so annually. They keep growing same-store sales, though the rate has been declining lately. Offers good historic growth. Continues to like this.

merchandising / lodging
PAST TOP PICK
Franco-Nevada Corp.
(A Top Pick Nov 09/22, Up 9%)

The go-to gold name for retail investors. Let's you sleep well at night. They're insulated from capital costs and overruns from gold and silver production. Also, they benefit from upside in commodity price through optionality. A perennial outperforming in mining.

precious metals
PAST TOP PICK
Brookfield Corp
(A Top Pick Nov 09/22, Up 2%)

They spun off the asset manager, and this is the core company. The tickers are confusing. This is the mothership to its affiliate companies and stocks. This is a great compounder over 3 decades and continues to be so. He continues to buy this.

investment companies / funds
DON'T BUY
Fortinet Inc

Has done well with this for the past few years. The big competitor to Palo Alto. It benefitted from the pandemic during remote work. Also, there's a secular market in cybersecurity. He sold it a few weeks ago after they reported Q2. Things changed abruptly; corporates are prioritizing away from cybersecurity and spending instead on AI. This spending is probably deferred, not cancelled.

Technology
WEAK BUY
Telus Corp

Likes it, but is sensitive to higher interest rates (it is highly leveraged). They spun out the international unit, which is struggling, probably losing market share. Because of this, Telus reduced its full-year guidance. A great business and the best of the Canadian telcos, though. Will continue to grow the dividend.

telephone utilities
COMMENT
Nuvei Corp

He bought it early this year. Has been disappointing. It's in the penalty box. He won't own it for long, but holding on for now. That said, there will be a bounce, because the recent sell-off was overdone.

Technology
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