
Chief Investment Officer at First Avenue Investment Counsel
Member since: Aug '16 · 2052 Opinions
In the basket of companies falling victim to the "AI witch-hunt" trade. Business made obsolete by AI is nonsense. Professional engineers have legal liability, while ChatGPT does not ;) Much of the work has to be done on the physical site. AI will be an efficiency advantage.
Well-positioned in a number of important verticals. Increased presence in power and energy, expects defense contracts. Backlog is big and growing. Tremendous long-term grower and compounder. Trades at only 15x PE, well below historical 25x.
Riskier and lower-quality in the space. Broadly speaking, waste is a need and not a want. Non-discretionary, non-cyclical. SES is a good business, but more cyclical -- regional, plus narrow focus on oilfields. Safer bet is to sell your shares before the deal closes.
He prefers, and owns, WM. Higher credit rating, more conservatively run, better mix of businesses.
GFL is riskier and lower-quality in the space. Broadly speaking, waste is a need and not a want. Non-discretionary, non-cyclical. SES is a good business, but more cyclical -- regional, plus narrow focus on oilfields. Safer bet is to sell your shares before the deal closes.
He prefers, and owns, WM. Higher credit rating, more conservatively run, better mix of businesses.
Not trading yet, but IPO coming fairly soon. Not much of a publicly traded healthcare market in Canada, so this should attract a fair bit of attention.
Well-positioned, generic drug manufacturer. An exciting catalyst are GLP-1 drugs, and it has the first license to sell. His firm doesn't generally buy IPOs, but they're taking a close look at this one.
Right here, right now is a good entry point for a long-term hold. Part of the AI witch-hunt trade. Competitive moat won't be eroded by agentic AI. People don't understand that writing code is not "one and done", not to mention cybersecurity concerns and complex payment systems.
Increasingly catering to larger customers. Continues to innovate and to add value to legacy markets.
Never discount the important of dividends to your total return! Underwhelming, while a lot of other energy stocks have really taken off. Has "oil" in its name, but it's actually Canada's largest nat gas producer. SHEL acquisition of ARX was a watershed moment in the Canadian oil patch and, in particular, nat gas.
Still grossly undervalued.
Lumber companies are not good businesses, full stop. They're commodities, and this period in time with tariffs and trade is particularly fraught. After the pandemic deck-building peak, demand and prices crashed. Tariffs have been plaguing the lumber industry almost 30 years now, his entire career; they're not going away. Canadian industry is being decimated.
As well, primary use for lumber is housing, and housing demand is still subdued because mortgage rates are still high.
A trade at best. Instead, go downstream for a company that adds value such as DBM or SJ.
Kudos on that choice, because it's not been a market darling (since the dot-com bubble). Riding coattails of stronger players in the space, catching the halo effect. The old adage: "No one ever went broke taking a profit" -- good risk management.
Prefers, and owns, ANET.
Run up, so take some profits. You don't want to sell them, though. Good line of sight to double-digit total return over a cycle. Yes, we're in a "technical recession", but it's narrow and concentrated in certain parts of the economy. As well, the banks own global and US assets, and the US is not in a recession.