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His signals point to a market peak. Momentum is coming into defensive stocks, signalling new highs today. Growth is breaking down vs. value. The tech trade this week could be front-running the Fed meeting later this week where they could raise interest rates. If so, this would contract liquidity and hurt cyclical and growth stocks. Insider selling is elevated and margin debt is high. The indices aren't doing much, but there is a large momentum blow-off and rotation. There could be more insider selling later this year. Margin interest by investors is extreme; extremes happen close to market peaks. The rotation into defence could continue. The Mag 7 has powered the market, but their giant free cash flows have gone into investing in AI. CDS's are expanding to names like Nvidia and Broadcom. If inflation returns, tech and growth stocks will be most harmed. The risk of an oil spike, to the US-Iran war, is abnormally high and oil prices could be more damaging than in spring. Energy and healthcare are sectors that could do well. Healthcare has been out of favour, generates a lot of free cash flow and not effected by oil prices; also is driven by aging demographics.

The PE remains too high. Wait for a lower one. Inflation is the biggest risk to high-PE stocks, and Palantir is the poster child of that.

Uber is the rideshare leader here and prefers that to Lyft.  

Visa and Mastercard have been treading water the past year because the market has been fixated on AI, but that money has been rotating out of AI into places like credit cards. The two companies have some of the best business models, big moats and trading at attractive PEs, though neither are at decades-long low PEs. Visa's layoff of 7% of workforce is good for the stock. Probably AI is making Visa more productive.

 Visa and Mastercard have been treading water the past year because the market has been fixated on AI, but that money has been rotating out of AI into places like credit cards. The two companies have some of the best business models, big moats and trading at attractive PEs, though neither are at decades-long low PEs.  

Their last earnings had one of the largest gaps ever in their history which could signal further problems in the company. Wait to see them sort out of their problems. Would not buy this dip.

The new CEO inherited a total mess. Extremely low valuations don't show value but signal problems. It will be dead money for a long time.

Of the hyperscalers, Meta has the most off-balance sheet debt. This and given the carnage in semis stocks, he wouldn't touch this.

That was an eye-opener. The Mag 7 has peaked, and it could be a multi-year peak due to the negative free cash flow. GOOG is one of the winners in AI. Once the PE declines or AI spending slows, the stock could react better. The street would be very disappointed if only the core businesses of the Mag 7 were generating free cash flow growth and AI was not. It's tough to look through AI spend and invest the Mag 7 which remain great companies, but now face the biggest risk in years.

October highs and relative performance resembled the peak of the Tech Bubble. Now, we're breaking down from critical levels where the tech bubble cracked. Moving has been and will rotate into growth and value. He's looking at the beneficiaries of AI like biotech, which has lagged but is overperforming this year. AI tools are benefiting their R&D.

The semis stocks have seen extreme momentum and peaked. He is moving away from semis and is now underweight the space. These stocks will continue to be volatile and could even make new highs, but now is a good time to exit if you have made good money.

Is correlated to agricultural prices. DAR collects oils from restaurants; and they operate biodiesel. If energy and egg prices rise, so will DAR. DAR is managed well.