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Today, David Driscoll commented about whether 6861.T, LFUS, STN.TO, UNH, SAP.TO, GOOG, MSFT, AMZN, ZID.TO, XID.TO, KHC, BRK.B, NSRGY, CSCO, LAGRB, TRP.TO, CB, RCI.B.TO, CCA.TO, BCE.TO, MDA.TO, CAE.TO, HEI, BX, KKR, GE, NFLX, BN.TO, ROP, UNP, OTEX.TO, MSI are stocks to buy or sell.
Yes, because over the last 3 years we've had a momentum market. That's where you get the rise in the Mag 7, AI, and gold stocks. But now we're getting to the point where things are starting to get a bit tired. Money's starting to move into more value-oriented names or those that have been forgotten for the last few years.
If you look at the overall markets, the Russell 2000 small-cap index is up 8% YTD, but the S&P 500 is up 1%. Japan is #2 at 7%, the EM index is up 6%, Canada's up 4%. Then you have the laggard of Europe at 2%, the global developed market at 1.5%, and the NASDAQ up 1%.
So we're starting to see movement away from what's been working the last 3 years, there's more diversification. Investors are moving toward what's cheap and what provides good long-term valuation.
Investors should be diversified across the board, as that's the best protection against any downside.
The other thing that investors have to consider is return on invested capital (ROIC). This brings in the law of diminishing returns. For example, you can look at the gold sub-index and see that it's up ~98%, but over 20 years it's only up 1%. It's important for people to get away from the emotions of chasing returns. Try to create a portfolio that will get you through both the good times and the bad times. This lets you stay in the game, and if markets fall 30-40% you're not going down with it.
You have to think from a logical standpoint that there are 8B-odd people in the world, but NA makes up only 550M. There's a lot going on outside Canada and North America.
The other thing is that, last year, both the CAD and the USD fell against a basket of global currencies. A lot of international investors, including pension funds and large institutions, are investing in tech but also elsewhere in the world to shy away from USD exposure. Let's say you get a total return of 10% on a stock. But if the home currency rises 5-10%, then your total return is 20%. Compare that to investing in a US stock where the currency went down 7%, then you have a total return of 10% minus the currency drop for a total return of 3%.
Has done quite well over the last few years. Software management (a large portion of its business), videos, government, walkie talkies. Two of the three businesses are doing well. Software management is the big issue because AI is starting to have an impact on software overall. How much can you charge for software if AI is going to take away pricing power?
Good long-term investment. An opportunity to buy on the drop.
AI is starting to impinge on software businesses, which will hamper ability to sell as much or for as much profit. These stocks will continue to struggle over the next couple of years until they can prove that they can provide something over and above what AI may be taking away from them.
Last summer his team exited their software companies completely.
Software sector has issues because it can't get the pricing it had before. AI is starting to impinge on software businesses, which will hamper ability to sell as much or for as much profit. These stocks will continue to struggle over the next couple of years until they can prove that they can provide something over and above what AI may be taking away from them. Software could go the way of the buggy whip.
Last summer his team exited their software companies completely.
Right now the US economy is doing better, so this stock's started to pick up again from April lows. But not shooting the lights out. This rail hauls agricultural, auto, and chemical products.
Biggest challenge is what are these railroads carrying? CNR has suffered in Canada because it's one of the largest shippers of vehicles, and tariffs are causing issues. Economy will drive how well the rails do. They've been going sideways, and there's no catalyst right now. If you want to buy now, you'll need to be patient.
Biggest challenge is what are these railroads carrying? CNR has suffered in Canada because it's one of the largest shippers of vehicles, and tariffs are causing issues. Economy will drive how well the rails do. Right now the US economy is doing better. They've been going sideways, and there's no catalyst right now.
If you want to buy now, you'll need to be patient.
You have to think of trends moving forward, especially for financing and underwriting new ideas. It'll be focused on pools of private equity and it has private debt. On the utilities side of the business, the "underlings" (such as BEP.UN and so on) are going to be trying to fund all these growth areas (such as data centres).
Just like the banks, companies like this (along with KKR and BX) will be necessary moving forward to provide all the financing to fulfill the trends.
This name get dividends filtered up from the subsidiaries, as well as management fees. He's owned for a long time. A good buy at this time.
Big battle right now is focused on content. Earnings came out a bit weaker because subscriber growth has started to slow down. Lots of competition out there. Growth will come not only from movies, but also from live events such as sports. Stock's down 8% YTD, but still trades at a hefty valuation ~33x PE.
He'd certainly wait to see if it can sustain earnings growth, as that's the challenge.
Don't forget that things don't go straight up forever. Stock had a 46% return in the last year, similar to a lot of the aerospace companies. (He owns HEI and CAE.) Commercial aircraft growth plus increase in defense spending contributed to the gains.
Don't worry about short-term volatility. More important to focus on what's to come. Aerospace sector has huge demand moving forward, as we're seeing countries around the world increase defense spending.
A lot of the aerospace companies have had tremendous runs. Commercial aircraft growth plus increase in defense spending contributed to the gains.
Don't worry about short-term volatility. More important to focus on what's to come. Aerospace sector has huge demand moving forward, as we're seeing countries around the world increase defense spending.