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Today, The Weekly Buzzing Stocks by Billy Kawasaki and The Panic-Proof Portfolio (Stockchase Research) commented about whether GAP, RCI.B.TO, BCE.TO, PNP.TO, AMD, BULL, MSTR are stocks to buy or sell.
Seeing jitteriness on the US markets. Whether the TSX or the S&P, you see this nice, smooth upward trajectory on the charts. We have a breakout to all-time highs on the TSX. Then around the beginning of October, we've had a lot of volatility and not much progress.
What we're seeing is some brittle behaviour with respect to what's going on in the AI world. Investors are wondering if the AI capex will be rewarded. The capex is real, with $350B spent this year. Global AI spend is $1.5T by year end. So it's not hype, it's real money. But what we have is 1.5B users engaging with consumer tools around AI, but only 3% are paying for the premium services. That's the gap between adoption (which is explosive) and monetization (which is lagging). That's driving the week-to-week volatility.
We really don't know, but he thinks the concern is unnecessary. It could take time for this to roll out. We had 81% of the S&P companies beat earnings expectations. So the tech-led beat is real. It's not the eventual effect of AI that's uncertain, but the timeline in which it will manifest.
Some parts of the market are showing "bubblicious" action. PLTR, for example, is a pretty expensive stock with lots of high hopes. But at the same time, you have Warren Buffett taking a position in GOOG.
So this is not a bubble by normal standards. Looking back to the tech bubble, it was up 800% by the time the bubble popped. Today we're up 100%. Not a bubble today, but we're working through a natural progression where it's a bit uncertain as to what the adoption's going to be.
Plus, we've talked in the past about the J-curve of resource production to build the AI centres and the power generation required. This is also adding uncertainty.
Stocks are discounting mechanisms. They're trying to discount the future of pretty massive growth -- very small changes to that will have larger impacts today.
Make sure you stick with quality growth companies that have some pricing power. You want commodity and natural resource exposure to get to the picks and shovels that will go into this AI buildout and grid expansion.
For the uncertainty, make sure you have some gold and some high-quality bonds in your portfolio.
Canada is really well-positioned here. Huge cross-border flows coming into Canada, in both bonds and stocks. The TSX and the TSX mid-caps (XMD is the ticker) are doing really well because of industrials, energy, and materials. Those areas will all have an impact in the rollout of AI. So there are places to go.
Equal weight exposure to the Big 6 Canadian banks. Well capitalized, strong balance sheets. Earnings growth still constrained a bit by loan demand issues and higher credit provisions. But on balance, a good place to be. Reasonable valuations. Strong dividends. Expecting a tailwind from rate cuts and rate cut expectations.
Good for long-term, income-oriented investors. Canadian banks will benefit from global flows moving into Canada. Banks will take advantage of resource expansion that comes along with AI adoption.
Actively managed. Enhanced monthly income via covered calls. Equal weight, so you're not taking on too much individual stock risk. Pretty good holding, for what the investor's looking for. A lateral transition to something like TXF may not achieve anything more, as the 2 baskets of stocks are so similar.
You are taking a significant bet on technology and the AI rollout. May behoove you to think about other areas of the market, such as energy. Try ENCC.