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WATCH
Earnings today after the bell.

CEO reminds him of the Cisco CEO in the dot-com era -- under-promised on guidance to give them wiggle room so that they could keep beating the numbers. The numbers always sounded impressive because they always beat. Not quite the same thing here.

Biggest issue for NVDA is what happens when they miss? The odds of beating this time are better than average. It's a know-how-to-play-the-game kind of story.

COMMENT
Where to focus this year?

His team runs a more diversified portfolio rather than being just in tech. Interesting selloff in software, leading to some quite ridiculous valuations for some stocks.

On the AI side, just because you can build something doesn't mean you can create a viable company. A successful company has to communicate with customers, retain business, and grow that business.

In the US this is a midterm election year, with a president who doesn't want to become a lame duck. That means there will be spending, which will positively impact growth. Like him or not, Trump is a catalyst for growth. So we can expect growth in some shape or form, as we had last year.

PARTIAL SELL

Good numbers today. Its business will continue to do well in this environment. Great run, so you might want to take a bit of profit.

Only caveat (on the sector in general) is that if CUSMA gets ripped up, we're probably going to see a bit of economic pain in Canada. Interest rates might fall, which would be somewhat negative for the banks.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

A big part of its business is buying distressed companies and adding value. But in a year where the US president is going to be spending big, how much distress is going to show up?

Good company. Sector looks interesting. In general, buy good companies when they're slightly on sale.

PARTIAL SELL

You probably don't want to add capital to a name that's moved significantly. Perhaps trim. The time to buy was when it was facing the uncertainty of a new CEO. 

Canadian banks will have credit issues if CUSMA vaporizes. But in general, good franchises. Instead, look outside Canada; JPM is one to consider.

BUY ON WEAKNESS
SAN vs. C

Good quality franchise. Similar to a BNS, but bigger and more global. Citi has done quite well. Based on prior history, he'd default to SAN.

DON'T BUY
C vs. SAN

Has done quite well. Too big to fail. Based on prior history, he'd default to SAN.

SELL

One of the few hot tech names from 2000 that didn't run up. Will benefit from data centre demand. Not the only game in town. Not a significant enough moat, may be time to move on.

PARTIAL BUY

With its complex structure, difficult for general analysts to accurately declare its value. Just because it dips 10%, still have to be careful. The space operates in multi-year cycles. Not recession-proof. 

Quality franchise and track record. If you don't own it, buy a bit here; add a bit more if it goes down.

TRADE

Benefits from infrastructure projects. Believes it has a lot of exposure to roadwork asphalt, but also relatively diversified businesses that grow. Track record and dividend are good.

Likes it, but it doesn't do anything completely different than others. When it goes on sale, you can buy it for a trade.

SELL

Big play now is data centre expansion through fibre. Look at that chart -- when stocks gap up, it's the trend that's in vogue. At some point you're part of a Ponzi scheme, and you need to get out with your profit.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Mar 04/25, Down 6%)

Ended up selling. Ontario government was going to revisit rent control, but then didn't. No point being in a sector when the underlying catalyst isn't there.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Mar 04/25, Up 82%)

Trimmed a bit in January to bring his overweight position in line. May have to do that again if it keeps running. For new clients, would only buy a half position. Benefiting from currency debasement discussions.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Mar 04/25, Up 2%)

Gave back a lot on the AI trade. At these levels, no problem buying for new clients. A long-term winner. At some point, the AI spending will get to a Jerry Maguire "show me the money" moment for results.

BUY

Good, sustainable dividend income stream, and that's going to grow your portfolio. Big opportunity for Canadian energy is shipping to Asia via the LNG terminal. Long term, LNG will bring parity in pricing -- that will flow through to the Canadian pipeline sector. Well run. 

If it's become 10% of your portfolio, good idea to trim that back.

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