Interest rates are probably top of mind for most investors, and something his team is watching. Not only the level of rates, but also the 10-year to 2-year spread. The spread has been compressing recently and moving toward zero. It's always something to be aware of, as it means that the market thinks economic activity could potential be slowing into 2027.
Everyone's watching oil prices, which have a big impact on inflation.
It's anyone's guess. If we were to see some type of resolution, he'd think the price would go down. Does it go back to previous levels? No, because damage has taken a fair bit of production offline, and it'll take a significant amount of time to come back on.
Even if we saw peace tomorrow, we'd probably see something in the $70-80 range. Without a declaration of peace, and compliance on that peace, he sees it above $80.
For every $1 that a barrel of oil moves up or down, it equates to around 3 bps of inflation in the US. If we were to see it move down from here, you could see inflation starting to tick down; if it goes up, inflation moves the other way.
The thing to focus on, heading into the first part of 2027, is that we're going to see higher numbers on the previous year's inflation rolling off. So we should start to see inflation trickling down. Unless we see another dramatic move up in inflation from where it is right now.
They certainly have an impact. But the market is heading into what tends to be the best time in the 4-year cycle. Just before midterms (end of October), and all the way through to the next presidential election, is the strongest period in the market cycle. Next year would actually be the strongest year of that cycle.
We're going through weakness right now (last half of September to the first part of October) where the market tends to be the most weak in a presidential cycle. After that it starts to accelerate.
Tends to be really volatile, more than he would expect given the tailwinds. Accessibility gets cheaper each time anyone launches a rocket, so corporate adoption will only increase. Market gets excited on news, and then the company hits a speed bump. A challenging back-and-forth.
Two ways to play. Either have a core position and trade around that as news comes out. Or put it in your account and just forget about it for 10 years.
Long-term trend involves demographic + lack of supply of residences. Short term, we've seen pressure on anything that's interest-rate sensitive. Debt is impacted by rising rates, as it's more difficult to service that debt.
If inflation moderates, and doesn't continue its accelerated pace upward, this and other REITs will start to move up again.
Pullback has to do with its debt level and rising interest rates. More volatile than you'd expect for a utility, partly to do with projects its won/lost. Nice dividend. If you want capital appreciation, may need to manage your position. If you're in it for the income, the income is there.
He owns no utility names right now, based solely on interest rates moving up.
Natural gas and oil projects in Uzbekistan, amazing drilling results. LNG almost finished in Kazakhstan. Diesel prices are even worse over there, and there's a shortage. Early in 2027, certain large vehicles can convert to LNG from diesel.
Stock's run up, some are taking profits. He's holding, and it'll go up over time.
Leadership change, refinanced debt at a lower rate, changing business to have more AI focus. Chart shows it's been hurt by potential of AI, but numbers haven't been impacted that much. Earnings are flat, whereas he looks for earnings acceleration.
In general, software stocks are starting to recover. If you look for bottoms, one to watch.
(Note the short timeframe.) Quite disappointing. Expectations got ahead of it. Latest acquisition will diversify. Concern that PLTR, a big client, is developing its own underwater batteries. (PLTR has been posting job openings for battery engineers.)
An example of how important it is to manage position size, and to have an exit strategy with smaller companies. He got stopped out, but is now starting to look at it again. Looks to be basing.
Continues to produce exceptional results, even though quarterly numbers can jump around a bit. Continues to increase dividend. Concerns surround "sub-prime lending", but their lending book doesn't necessarily fit that description. Transparent about certain segments not increasing as in the past, but margins have improved. Using AI to improve loan book.
Earnings screen well, but it hasn't translated to a stronger stock price. Expects an eventual takout.
His firm doesn't usually have a lot to do with ETFs. They do, however, use them to track sector flows. Now seeing reacceleration of Mag 7 in US -- indicates interest rate concerns are prompting investors to move up-cap to the strongest and largest companies. So the TSX 60 could benefit in a similar way.
One caveat is the banks. If the interest rate margin continues to compress, more difficult for banks to maintain their interest margins. Slowdown in capital markets would impact that segment of business.