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Today, The Weekly Buzzing Stocks by Billy Kawasaki and Nick Mersch, CFA commented about whether DOCN, SNOW, PLTR, NVDA, META, CLS.TO, SNDK, WDC, VICR, LITE, MU, SHOP.TO, LYTE-CBOE, CRWD, XNDU.TO, PNG.V, SOXX, AAPL, MSTR, BULL, MRNA are stocks to buy or sell.
Every fundamental factor he's looking at indicates that we still need more compute. At the beginning of last year, we thought we were going to spend $350B in capex for 2026. Now that number's looking like $1T, going up to $1.3T for next year.
We're still seeing a significant amount of demand, which is not being met by the current supply in the market. For now, we still have a couple of quarters of solid demand getting ahead of supply.
Where you have to pay attention is as soon as the margin profiles come back down. You can have periods of glut. At the end of the day, these are more commodity-based assets.
Call him crazy, but he thinks we can buy software stocks again. A lot of applications in some of the horizontal software companies are going to be disrupted in a massive way. It's a function of a lot of alternatives being available on the market.
But you still need a lot of the software infrastructure companies. The ones that enable the AI agents were much more immune to the selloff of the SaaSpocalypse. Any companies you buy have to have an AI angle and have to be reaccelerating revenue.
Safe to get back into software, but it has to be on the infrastructure side.
People looking at these massive capex numbers see the spend side, but want to see the revenue side. Seeing explosive revenue from Anthropic and OpenAI. He's starting to pay much more attention to the return on investment among the hyperscalers.
GPUs have a longer life cycle than people are expecting (9 years vs. an estimated 6). So the payoff period can extend much longer.
Sat out the capex buildout, relying on owning the end consumer. Time will tell if this was the right strategy. Massive service industry, with margins above 75%. The default stalwart when investors get worried about AI capex debt. Really good brand and margins, best share buyback program ever. Market's still trying to figure out where it fits in the AI ecosystem.
Really good way to capture the entire buildout across the ecosystem. Massive run, then massive reversal in July. A lot of names are super-high beta and based on price momentum. Can't tell how soon we'll get back to all-time highs -- it's narrative-dominated with questions about debt and circular financing.
A Hold. Be selective on any dips.
Pullback due to digesting the acquisition, which is extremely synergistic. Healthy margins of 22-23%. Has won big, real contracts, so the momentum will only compound from here. Rising defense budgets, autonomous underwater systems, and protecting infrastructure. Good management. Be patient.
Hold, or accumulate around here.
More and more indicators that quantum is going to be a real technology, rather than just a science project. Commercial applications are appearing. Likes the space, but it's more of a gamble. Look at cash burn. Has lots of partnerships with deep-tech spaces. Look for commercial wins as it proves out the technology.
Leans into networking capability in terms of connecting all the racks. Lots of interest in new techniques of networking. Includes names that investors don't usually have easy access to. This area is very attractive for long-term growth.
A lot of the names are higher beta, so you have to be able to withstand the volatility. Any whispers around overbuild, overcapacity, or lower demand and you'll see increased volatility.
Delivered a monster quarter, showing its resilience to AI movement. Its software was built to be more friendly to an agentic future. The agentic push has resulted in more businesses being started, and these are all potential customers for SHOP. Susceptible to consumer spending patterns. Great company, best CEO.
(Note the short timeframe.) Pulled back in July along with other names, has retraced about half. Valuation's getting cheaper because earnings are blowing estimates out of the water. Look at the long term, but remember it's cyclical. Important to look out for peak earnings, not just focus on the cheap valuation.