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Latest Stock Buy or Sell? Make More Informed Decisions!

Today, Mike Vinokur, CFA, CMT, and CFP commented about whether MFC.TO, UBER, MSFT, LNC, NFLX, META, NVDA, TD.TO, SES.TO, PKI.TO, CRBG, OWL, CVE.TO, PBH.TO, T.TO, BIP.UN.TO are stocks to buy or sell.

COMMENT

He was expecting a pullback like this for a while, because after a 3-year bull run, he saw valuations rise to overvalued. So, he was raising cash from the frothy tech space. The past month, he bought a tech stock and continued to raise cash. He's ready to pounce. Meanwhile, there remain issues in private credit, layoffs (i.e. Oracle), and no net new jobs being added.

DON'T BUY

Not a fan of this. They pay a dividend and reinvest capital into new projects, but this makes them dependent on generating capital gains and flipping projects. There's no real free cash flow as you see in a typical utility. Also, they are very interest rate-sensitive; they need to constantly borrow money to develop new projects.

DON'T BUY

He owns Rogers, instead. Telus is a good operator, but have stumbled along the way. Problem is, the dividend takes up all their free cash flow. So, can they grow into that huge 8.5% dividend distribution and pay down some debt and leave net cash on the balance sheet? Not sure if there will be a dividend cut, like BCE did.

BUY

He bought this last summer around $88-90. Likes management and pays a 3.4% dividend. Sales have grown the past 10 years due to tuck-in acquisitions and product growth. Likes their strategy being on both sides of the border to avoid tariffs. The balance sheet is stretched. Is a good long-term hold.

BUY
oil outlook

The war will eventually end and oil will resume flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, the WTI-Brent oil spread will widen. Cenovus has very long-life assets in the Tar Sands, but also benefit huge from the refinery crack spreads.

DON'T BUY

Is the poster child of the private equity sell-off. Eventually, the tide will turn. Can they continue raising fee-related AUM to continue growing earnings. Their big dividend is eating up all their earnings. You'd have to bet that everything stabilizes in private credit and pray there are no black swan events in their book of business and that they can raise AUM capital again in order to expand the valuation. Nothing against OWL management, but this entire space has been hit.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Mar 07/25, Down 24%)

Many lifecos are getting hit over exposure to the trouble private credit space. CRBG is well-financed. Last week, they said they will merge with Equitable Life, so they will become much bigger with excess capital. They pay a good dividend. Trades at 4.5-5x earnings and below book value.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Mar 07/25, Up 13%)

Sunoco bought it last year. He paid around $34 on average. He accepted part-cash, part-shares in the Sunoco deals. Excellent assets, especially now given the US-Iran war; their margins must be shooting up now.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Mar 07/25, Up 65%)

A great management team, buying back stock. He sold this last month to raise cash, not because the company did anything negative. He should have held on a little longer.

DON'T BUY

Avoids the Canadian banks now, because valuations are too high vs. historical norms. Also, the credit cycle hasn't run its course, which is a risk and could impact earnings.

WATCH

He's watching it, but hasn't bought, because his entry point is more than 10% lower than today's price. He's concerned about helium, crucial to produce semiconductors, but 25% of helium transits the Strait of Hormuz. If there's a big shortage of helium, how will that impact NVDA's production? NVDA is a great company, but their competitors could catch up.

WATCH
recent lawsuits

Lawsuits take many years. They are a dominant platform that executes. Is watching it. He nearly bought it a few days ago. Whatsapp, Facebook, Instagram--it's a cash-flow machine and likes it. He will buy this at the right entry point and hold it.

WATCH

Is starting to look at it after NFLX dropped its Warners bid. He likes their business, excellent. If it pulls back 10-20%, he's probably enter. Is still researching it.

BUY

They got hit a few years ago from the spike in interest rates. It holds great businesses, including life insurance and annuity. They have a huge capital buffer. Pays a nice dividend, around 4.5%. Will earn $8-9 and $10 in the near future, and trades around 4x PE. Solid cash flow, too.

TOP PICK

He recently bought it at a fine valuation. He would average down. It's like a utility--so many people and businesses depend on it. They also have the cloud business. Generates heavy free cash flow. Trades around 17x forward PE with record revenues.

(Analysts’ price target is $592.57)

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