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He was expecting a pullback like this for a while, because after a 3-year bull run, he saw valuations rise to overvalued. So, he was raising cash from the frothy tech space. The past month, he bought a tech stock and continued to raise cash. He's ready to pounce. Meanwhile, there remain issues in private credit, layoffs (i.e. Oracle), and no net new jobs being added.
Not a fan of this. They pay a dividend and reinvest capital into new projects, but this makes them dependent on generating capital gains and flipping projects. There's no real free cash flow as you see in a typical utility. Also, they are very interest rate-sensitive; they need to constantly borrow money to develop new projects.
He owns Rogers, instead. Telus is a good operator, but have stumbled along the way. Problem is, the dividend takes up all their free cash flow. So, can they grow into that huge 8.5% dividend distribution and pay down some debt and leave net cash on the balance sheet? Not sure if there will be a dividend cut, like BCE did.
Is the poster child of the private equity sell-off. Eventually, the tide will turn. Can they continue raising fee-related AUM to continue growing earnings. Their big dividend is eating up all their earnings. You'd have to bet that everything stabilizes in private credit and pray there are no black swan events in their book of business and that they can raise AUM capital again in order to expand the valuation. Nothing against OWL management, but this entire space has been hit.
Many lifecos are getting hit over exposure to the trouble private credit space. CRBG is well-financed. Last week, they said they will merge with Equitable Life, so they will become much bigger with excess capital. They pay a good dividend. Trades at 4.5-5x earnings and below book value.
He's watching it, but hasn't bought, because his entry point is more than 10% lower than today's price. He's concerned about helium, crucial to produce semiconductors, but 25% of helium transits the Strait of Hormuz. If there's a big shortage of helium, how will that impact NVDA's production? NVDA is a great company, but their competitors could catch up.