It's been a big train wreck of a year with conflicts on and conflicts off. If peace breaks out, funds that flowed into energy will exit amid profit-taking and flow to other sectors of the economy.
The under-appreciated risks include potentially higher interest rates in the US. That would put the Canadian dollar under pressure. Will the BOC have to defend that? There's a limit to how far we can allow our dollar to fall.
There are some issues with regard to the US labour market. Starting to see a bit of weakness in job creation. Participation rate is down. Average growth in hourly wages is marginally in the black. That could be a harbinger. Usually when the labour market rolls over it tends to be a bad signal.
By and large, US market's going with the theme that AI's going to take over the world. There's a lot of opportunity now, especially with cash reserves that people have from taking profits.
Listing on the NASDAQ is good for fund flows and for the stock, but there's some degree of geopolitical risk. Stock's gone vertical. He's read that the average South Korean has gone into lines of credit to buy this stock. If that doesn't signal the top of the market, what does?
It begs the question of whether the AI chip is really going to monetize? Market's currently fixated on hardware. History shows that the lion's share of profits typically accrues to the software side of the ecosystem.
Over its history this stock's gone from boom to bust, almost going bankrupt a couple of times. Very volatile segment. A very interesting question is will you make $$ if you hold it for 5-10 years? Remember the dot-com era.
Canadian banks, for example, have had stellar runs and trade at significant premiums. Our underlying economy isn't great, we're in a trade war, and so there might be some profit-taking.
Relatively, with a stronger economy and rising interest rates, the US is a better place to be. This one is a specialty bank. Attractive entry level, he'd be OK adding some exposure. But rising interest rates in the US will bring some downside.
For oil energy, pessimism on supply was really priced in on March 26. Since then, oil names have retraced. Oil is a significant portion of the economy, and that's why it causes inflation.
With oil prices coming down on the back of peace breaking out, the narrative and fund flows are going to be somewhat negative. Capital will move to other areas. The price will be higher than it was pre-conflict, but we'll have to see what this "new normal" price will be. And he wouldn't buy any energy names till that shakes out.
Data centre high-energy use is causing demand for copper, heating issues, cooling issues, water demand. This company provides a solution to lower energy consumption. The space is worth looking at, as is this company.
Valuation is something like 93x PE. Phenomenal chart, great run. Don't own it here, but spend some time doing homework to see how this will all play out.
He took some profits. Canada's jurisdiction is safe, and we have ample resources. Money's now being made in energy, people like the dividend, and ESG pushback has declined. Applauds growing its portfolio by purchasing ARX.
Attractive here, but wait for the "new normal" of oil pricing to kick in if there's peace in Iran.
Iran conflict prompted a lot of natural gas drilling in the US, and so the price collapsed. LNG Canada allows exports to higher-priced markets in Asia. New floating gasification plants will also add capacity. More upside. (You could take some of your oil profits and redeploy into gas names, which look really cheap.)