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We always have to be on the lookout for change. After 18 months of great performance from anything that was economically sensitive or an inflation hedge, the nature of the market has been going through a shift in the last few weeks.
So far this year, defensive assets have done better. That's a bit of a tell. Energy was doing well leading up to the conflict in Iran, and has been doing well since. Consumer staples and energy doing well coupled with weakness in technology and financials is not a great combination.
The percent of stocks that are in long-term uptrends has deteriorated over the last 6-7 weeks, in Canada and the US and internationally.
Markets are assessing a higher degree of risk. The longer the disruption in Iran and the Strait of Hormuz goes on, the longer you have to take that into account in your calculations.
His firm is sitting on a bit over 20% cash. His biggest weight would be energy. In general, they're being a bit more cautious.
As we're going through this correction, he'd encourage you to be building your "farm team" -- a list of companies you'd like to own. As things start to show some improvement, then you have names you can start entering.
Economic data showed that earnings were great in Q4. Revisions were generally better looking out through the course of the year. Near-term PMI economic data has been improving. That's great.
However, when you have events in the Strait and oil prices moving up so sharply, that has a knock-on effect in a whole bunch of different industries. Has the potential to add to inflation, which is already sticky. Recent inflation data came in higher than expected.
Concern that all this could slow economic growth at a time when inflation is higher. Not a great combination. So investors have been thinking about their positioning.
We came into this during a time when people were exceptionally bullish and over their skis. Investors have been hedging and reducing exposure. Technically, the markets are looking a little weaker.
His firm really doesn't buy turnaround situations. He wants things that are good and getting better, with positive catalysts and technically sound. As the stock comes off the bottom, you have all these people just itching to sell and get their money back.
Won't be a market leader anytime soon. Better places for your $$. If you can take a tax loss, he'd step aside.
In financials, his positioning is down to 13% from 28%. Fintech has been weak, as have companies like MA, V, and PYPL. The P&C insurance group has been weak.
Canadian banks have been pretty resilient, and he has some good exposure there. He's watching the real estate market closely. Thankfully, mortgages make up a lot less of earnings than they used to because the banks have diversified.
Great way for investors to own long-life Canadian assets. Cash-generating machine. Paid down debt. Returning basically 100% FCF to investors. A more growthy oil sands story, plus opportunities for gas. We're at the beginning of a long bull market in energy.
Operates in a politically safe environment. Stay at home and buy this one.
Coming into February, the whole rail sector across NA was in the process of breaking out from a very large base. Transports also woke up.
Now we're going through some stuff with oil plus some weakness in the market. And these concerns are washing through transportation. They've pulled back to their breakout point.
Rails are particularly attractive if you think the price of fuel is going to be elevated. Biggest impact so far from rising oil price has been rising diesel prices. Diesel likely to work its way higher the longer the Strait is constricted. Rails are way more competitive in an elevated fuel-cost world.
He likes the rails. See his Top Picks.
Top Pick in August, stopped out in September. He recently participated in the public offering when it sold shares in New York.
You have to be prepared to change your view when the situation changes. Technically, trading above all the moving averages from 200-day on up. Making relative strength highs. Almost at new highs. Space sector is a leadership group in the market.
Better places to be. Dividend growth is more interesting than high dividend payers, especially in an inflationary world. He wants companies that grow their dividends more quickly, even if the dividend is lower to begin with. A rising stream of income offsets a rising cost of living.
Take a look at RDVY.
As silver went parabolic in January, he reduced his position. Likely to correct for a while (~2-3 months). Still owns some plus some AEM, but sold everything else in the space. A dividend grower. Safest way to play the sector.
Near term, companies need to do some digesting. Expects another leg higher of a 3-leg, long-term bull market in precious metals.