President & CEO at Stephenson & Company Capital Management
Member since: Sep '02 · 2923 Opinions
This is something where the Shorts have been wrong, at least in the short run, however, it’s a name that is very hard to Buy and recommend. It totally defies belief, and is a totally “story driven” stock. The idea that they are going to bring out 400,000-500,000 Model 3s, having no manufacturing problems, and be profitable all of a sudden, is hard to imagine.
A generic producer of pharmaceuticals, the largest in the world. It just reported and missed, and the stock got pounded. Thinks it is a “no touch” for awhile. Clearly there will be pressure on the generics. If you own this, you are probably looking at a good year before it digs itself out of this mess.
Overall, a great company. Has good leverage to global growth. To a large extent, the glory days are behind, because he doesn’t think we are going to see the infrastructure boom in China or India any time soon. A good, solid company with a decent balance sheet. It is probably fine, although it wouldn’t be his 1st choice.
(A Top Pick June 13/16. Down 20%.) Sold his holdings in September. This started as an online catalogue company, essentially workwear and clothing for men and women. Thinks they have a long-term margin goal of 35%. They’ve doubled their stores in 18 months. Retail has been undergoing pressure. Feels it could easily be a $30 stock.
This has struggled. It is cheap, trading at about 9X earnings. There has been a resurgence of late, which is positive. The hep C franchise is just not showing tremendous growth, and there are not a lot of things in the pipeline. They have a fair bit of cash. He would prefer Celgene (CELG-Q) on a pullback or Vertex (VRTX-Q), which has had some innovative drugs on multiple sclerosis.
Market. Tech stocks are showing some weakness, and it is probably a decent opportunity to buy some. Some would say it is a crowded trade, but the reality is that we have a very slow growth world. The US just came out with their economic growth, and the 2nd quarter was 2.6%, well away from the 4% that Trump was promising. In a very slow growth world, companies that can post 30%-40%, and some cases more, are going to be prized. The FANG stocks are really unique monopoly companies. For most of them, their growth rate and the run rate is pretty unlimited at this point.