Stock Opinions by John Stephenson - Stockchase Experts
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John Stephenson @

On Stockchase since : Sep 2002

President & CEO at Stephenson & Company Capital Management

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Stock Opinions by John Stephenson - Stockchase Experts

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General Market Comment 

August 3, 2017

Market. Tech stocks are showing some weakness, and it is probably a decent opportunity to buy some. Some would say it is a crowded trade, but the reality is that we have a very slow growth world. The US just came out with their economic growth, and the 2nd quarter was 2.6%, well away from the 4% that Trump was promising. In a very slow growth world, companies that can post 30%-40%, and some cases more, are going to be prized. The FANG stocks are really unique monopoly companies. For most of them, their growth rate and the run rate is pretty unlimited at this point.

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Market. Tech stocks are showing some weakness, and it is probably a decent opportunity to buy some. Some would say it is a crowded trade, but the reality is that we have a very slow growth world. The US just came out with their economic growth, and the 2nd quarter was 2.6%, well away from the 4% that Trump was promising. In a very slow growth world, companies that can post 30%-40%, and some cases more, are going to be prized. The FANG stocks are really unique monopoly companies. For most of them, their growth rate and the run rate is pretty unlimited at this point.

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John Stephenson

President , Stephenson & Company...

Price Price
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

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HOLD
FedEx(FDX-N) 

August 3, 2017

The business mix has changed a little. There has been a real decline in the sort of “envelopes overnight” as well as international delivery. A lot of business is now done through email. They acquired TNT, so we have to see how that goes. It is a survivor and a good company.

Transportation
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The business mix has changed a little. There has been a real decline in the sort of “envelopes overnight” as well as international delivery. A lot of business is now done through email. They acquired TNT, so we have to see how that goes. It is a survivor and a good company.

Transportation
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John Stephenson

President , Stephenson & Company...

Price Price
$209.360
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT

A US defensive stock? To a large extent, you have missed a lot of it. They are not cheap. His choice would be this or Boeing (BA-N), which has the commercial side, but also has defence.

transportation equip & components
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A US defensive stock? To a large extent, you have missed a lot of it. They are not cheap. His choice would be this or Boeing (BA-N), which has the commercial side, but also has defence.

transportation equip & components
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John Stephenson

President , Stephenson & Company...

Price Price
$199.330
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
Boeing(BA-N) 

August 3, 2017

A US defensive stock? To a large extent, you have missed a lot of it. They are not cheap. His choice would be General Dynamics (GD-N) or this, which has the commercial side, but also has defence.

Transportation
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A US defensive stock? To a large extent, you have missed a lot of it. They are not cheap. His choice would be General Dynamics (GD-N) or this, which has the commercial side, but also has defence.

Transportation
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John Stephenson

President , Stephenson & Company...

Price Price
$238.250
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
Tesla Motors Inc(TSLA-Q) 

August 3, 2017

This is something where the Shorts have been wrong, at least in the short run, however, it’s a name that is very hard to Buy and recommend. It totally defies belief, and is a totally “story driven” stock. The idea that they are going to bring out 400,000-500,000 Model 3s, having no manufacturing problems, and be profitable all of a sudden, is hard to imagine.

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This is something where the Shorts have been wrong, at least in the short run, however, it’s a name that is very hard to Buy and recommend. It totally defies belief, and is a totally “story driven” stock. The idea that they are going to bring out 400,000-500,000 Model 3s, having no manufacturing problems, and be profitable all of a sudden, is hard to imagine.

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John Stephenson

President , Stephenson & Company...

Price Price
$347.090
Owned Owned
Unknown

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DON'T BUY

A generic producer of pharmaceuticals, the largest in the world. It just reported and missed, and the stock got pounded. Thinks it is a “no touch” for awhile. Clearly there will be pressure on the generics. If you own this, you are probably looking at a good year before it digs itself out of this mess.

biotechnology/pharmaceutical
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A generic producer of pharmaceuticals, the largest in the world. It just reported and missed, and the stock got pounded. Thinks it is a “no touch” for awhile. Clearly there will be pressure on the generics. If you own this, you are probably looking at a good year before it digs itself out of this mess.

biotechnology/pharmaceutical
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John Stephenson

President , Stephenson & Company...

Price Price
$23.750
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT

Overall, a great company. Has good leverage to global growth. To a large extent, the glory days are behind, because he doesn’t think we are going to see the infrastructure boom in China or India any time soon. A good, solid company with a decent balance sheet. It is probably fine, although it wouldn’t be his 1st choice.

precious metals
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Overall, a great company. Has good leverage to global growth. To a large extent, the glory days are behind, because he doesn’t think we are going to see the infrastructure boom in China or India any time soon. A good, solid company with a decent balance sheet. It is probably fine, although it wouldn’t be his 1st choice.

precious metals
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John Stephenson

President , Stephenson & Company...

Price Price
$27.250
Owned Owned
Unknown

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PAST TOP PICK
Caterpillar(CAT-N) 

August 3, 2017

(A Top Pick June 13/16. Down 57%.) *Short* He closed out the Short on November 15. Overall, they have done really well, and certainly defied many people who thought a Short was a good idea.

machinery
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(A Top Pick June 13/16. Down 57%.) *Short* He closed out the Short on November 15. Overall, they have done really well, and certainly defied many people who thought a Short was a good idea.

machinery
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John Stephenson

President , Stephenson & Company...

Price Price
$113.560
Owned Owned
No

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PAST TOP PICK
Duluth Holdings(DLTH-Q) 

August 3, 2017

(A Top Pick June 13/16. Down 20%.) Sold his holdings in September. This started as an online catalogue company, essentially workwear and clothing for men and women. Thinks they have a long-term margin goal of 35%. They’ve doubled their stores in 18 months. Retail has been undergoing pressure. Feels it could easily be a $30 stock.

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(A Top Pick June 13/16. Down 20%.) Sold his holdings in September. This started as an online catalogue company, essentially workwear and clothing for men and women. Thinks they have a long-term margin goal of 35%. They’ve doubled their stores in 18 months. Retail has been undergoing pressure. Feels it could easily be a $30 stock.

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John Stephenson

President , Stephenson & Company...

Price Price
$19.230
Owned Owned
No

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PAST TOP PICK
Kinross Gold(KGC-N) 

August 3, 2017

(A Top Pick June 13/16. Down 16%.) At the time, this was a sort of a turnaround story. Still a decent gold company if you want to hold one.

Golds
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(A Top Pick June 13/16. Down 16%.) At the time, this was a sort of a turnaround story. Still a decent gold company if you want to hold one.

Golds
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John Stephenson

President , Stephenson & Company...

Price Price
$4.320
Owned Owned
No

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BUY

Thinks it has sort of bottomed here and is heading up, with a little more of a bullish outlook. Supply/demand has been a little bit out of whack for a number of years, but thinks things are tightening up. He likes the merger with Agrium (AGU-T).

integrated mines
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Thinks it has sort of bottomed here and is heading up, with a little more of a bullish outlook. Supply/demand has been a little bit out of whack for a number of years, but thinks things are tightening up. He likes the merger with Agrium (AGU-T).

integrated mines
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John Stephenson

President , Stephenson & Company...

Price Price
$22.610
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT

This has struggled. It is cheap, trading at about 9X earnings. There has been a resurgence of late, which is positive. The hep C franchise is just not showing tremendous growth, and there are not a lot of things in the pipeline. They have a fair bit of cash. He would prefer Celgene (CELG-Q) on a pullback or Vertex (VRTX-Q), which has had some innovative drugs on multiple sclerosis.

biotechnology/pharmaceutical
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This has struggled. It is cheap, trading at about 9X earnings. There has been a resurgence of late, which is positive. The hep C franchise is just not showing tremendous growth, and there are not a lot of things in the pipeline. They have a fair bit of cash. He would prefer Celgene (CELG-Q) on a pullback or Vertex (VRTX-Q), which has had some innovative drugs on multiple sclerosis.

biotechnology/pharmaceutical
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John Stephenson

President , Stephenson & Company...

Price Price
$74.370
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
Home Capital Group(HCG-T) 

August 3, 2017

Looking out 12 months, this is probably an attractive name. The company is doing all the right things in terms of their board and a new president. It might be a bit of a grind higher from here. The easy money has been made.

investment companies/funds
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Looking out 12 months, this is probably an attractive name. The company is doing all the right things in terms of their board and a new president. It might be a bit of a grind higher from here. The easy money has been made.

investment companies/funds
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John Stephenson

President , Stephenson & Company...

Price Price
$13.860
Owned Owned
Unknown

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HOLD
Rite Aid Corp.(RAD-N) 

August 3, 2017

Doesn’t think there is really an issue with this stock. Pharmacies haven’t quite been where the action is in the healthcare vertical. This is a decent name.

specialty stores
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Doesn’t think there is really an issue with this stock. Pharmacies haven’t quite been where the action is in the healthcare vertical. This is a decent name.

specialty stores
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John Stephenson

President , Stephenson & Company...

Price Price
$2.390
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT

A really quality name and has been for some time. They control many parts of the Western Sedimentary Basin, and are very strong. It is going to swing up and down with the commodity, even though they have no commodity sensitivity to its earnings. Doesn’t think you can go too far wrong with this.

pipelines
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A really quality name and has been for some time. They control many parts of the Western Sedimentary Basin, and are very strong. It is going to swing up and down with the commodity, even though they have no commodity sensitivity to its earnings. Doesn’t think you can go too far wrong with this.

pipelines
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John Stephenson

President , Stephenson & Company...

Price Price
$42.620
Owned Owned
Unknown

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