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Today, Stephen Weiss, Founder, Short Hills Capital Partners and Jim Lebenthal commented about whether XLF, ADBE, CAT, META are stocks to buy or sell.
He bought more personally, because fears are overblown. Yesterday's earnings and guidance were good, but not enough to put the bear case to bed. He's not happy the CEO is leaving, but is a buy opportunity. Sales growth is over 10% and PE is 11x and free cash of 11% is also growing. They have bought back 10% of shares over two years and will continue. It feels lousy owning it now, but he will do well with this in time.
Amid this private credit sell-off, she keeps adding to their tech fund. Private credit fears now are overblown. Over 10 years, the top decile private credit manager earned 12% and the bottom decile did 4%. A year from now, the big earners will come out as big winners and those that don't, don't. She believes in Blue Owl.
We had a strong 2025. I think they missed the youth unemployment, and that's one of the main reasons why it went up that high this time around. Though youth unemployment reached 12-12.5%, he believes it's a lot higher than that. They're not counting people who have yet to participate in the market.
We need to improve on that. One way is to cut taxes, especially for small businesses. They're the backbone to our economy. If they start hiring again, that's fantastic. Youth employment would go up, overall unemployment numbers would come down.
Tiff Macklem has a tough job balancing interest rates and inflation (with the price of oil over $100).
AI is the easy narrative to blame. Sure, it has it's place, but it's not 100% responsible for the increase in unemployment in Canada or the US.
The US has the model somewhat correct -- cutting taxes, pressure to reduce interest rates. That's spurring growth and the economy.
Canada has announced some deals up north and overseas. But how about cutting taxes and interest rates here? Those measures alone will start promoting growth in Canada.
Downside risk is likely $600, but is more likely to bounce. Today announced it will delay rolling out its AI. Is not surprised. Delays happens alot in tech. He owns a full position, but otherwise would add more now.