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Gold can certainly correct but it is difficult to forecast and the reasons will vary. Gold has had five annual losses since 2005, including -51% in 2011 and -46% in 2013. The US dollar and interest rates are the biggest drivers (good and bad). Companies with good cost control such as AEM have very good leverage to price moves. At $5000 gold, we would be fairly sure AEM would trade above $300. It is 23x earnings today. We would be fine buying in the $235 range.
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FMC, $4B market cap, down 47% in the past year, is very cheap at 9X earnings, with a 7.2% dividend. But debt is extremely high (more than 10X recent 12-month cash flow) and earnings have stalled. 2026E EPS is expected to be less than it was seven years ago. The Q2 was decent, but free cash flow has been running negative on a 12-month basis. It did affirm guidance, but this is really a debt issue. If the global economy slows, their business is not likely to see big growth, but of course the debt will still be there. Going into year end tax selling we would sit this one out. We have no idea how Morningstar sees it tripling.
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Investing 101: Make mistakes when you are young with less money to lose
If you are going to make a mistake, in almost all cases it is probably better to make them young. With investing, you have more time to bounce back from a mistake but perhaps more importantly, the dollar value with which a mistake is being made is going to be far lower. A mistake at a young age is going to be far less impactful than at a later age and be assured, mistakes will be made whether you are active or passively investing.
As a 20-something that retires 40 years later (hopefully), you are probably not going to look back at that initial $10,000 you (maybe) lost in the market and view that as the big difference maker in your retirement. However, if that experience turned out well and led to added financial security, you will probably view it as one of the most important financial decisions you ever made.
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He wouldn't expect a lot from this meeting. The tariff regime from the Trump administration has been very well telegraphed. Most heads of state have come away with a deal they wouldn't have expected. Keep in mind that the land border between Canada and the US is the longest trade conduit we have. We have some critical minerals that they use in the US, so there are some areas that we can push back on.
The bigger, thornier issue is that USMCA is up for renegotiation next year. Will the Trump administration just rip it up and say let's start again? The optics of cutting a deal on the fly are interesting. Something like the healthcare sector had follow-through that was quite disconnected from the initial announcement.
He'd expect some headlines, but what we actually get delivered may be somewhat different. We've reached the point where the president needs to recognize that Canada's a major trading partner, and the US will suffer if tariffs remain. Tariffs are a tax on US consumers, not on Canadians.
You can look at a number of different sectors. Take healthcare, for example. If companies can find a workaround, then tariffs are irrelevant. Luxury has sold off. Europe has sold off. Tariffs on the Swiss with their 6 million people and global operations don't amount to much.
While tariffs are a hot button in the US, it doesn't get to the heart of US overspending or its debt problems. Budget deficit in the US is not helpful. Compounding that with the defense budget, and the fiscal stimulus being pushed into the US economy, the result has to be inflationary in some shape or form.
European companies sold off with the tariff threats. Growth by acquisition, and they have the cash to do that. Luxury is a growth category, and while it may be slowing it's outperforming many other segments. Attractively priced. Luxury category holds up very well during recessions. (Price target in euros.) Yield is 2.33%.
(Analysts’ price target is $559.89)Demand for carbon energy is still there within the broader, increasing demand for all energy. Plus, a place like Canada doesn't have the grid to support EVs the way some other countries can. People want nuclear, but not in their backyards. So what's the alternative?
Buying back shares in significant quantities. You make $$ when you buy, not when you sell. Good value, likes it long term. Dividend is safe. Yield is 3.84%.
PLUG is moving as a new potential AI play, as well as by short covering (31% short interest). Interest in hydrogen and fuelcells has increased as investors fret about the need for power to run AI data centres. It has never made money and cash flow is massively negative. It is a bit of a MEME/FOMO stock right now, and we can't endorse it on its fundamentals.
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