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S&P 500 still remains very healthy -- earnings growth for the year still expected to come in between 8-10%. That resilience will, hopefully, be bolstered by a stable job market and Fed rate cut (or cuts). 

Midterm elections are coming up, and those typically introduce a lot of policy uncertainty. 

Continued overhang of capex in AI and data centres among the hyperscalers -- this year it's going to be show me the ROI (return on investment). They'll need to show how they're turning investment dollars into revenue. 

His firm is being fairly patient. When you look at what the capex was last year, it was around $440B. When they reported Q4, the numbers have come up dramatically. Projections are for $750B for 2026, and $900B for 2027. Some of them have over $1T as we approach 2030.

Those capex numbers have to translate into profits for the hyperscalers. Typically, hyperscalers would show 2-3 times their capex in terms of profits over the next several years.

If we look at current estimates for profitability for these companies, they have to come up dramatically to support the ROI expected from the capex spend.

People are moving from the speculative hype of last year toward measurable productivity. Generative AI will have more to do with cost efficiency and margin expansion than with pure revenue growth. 

In the news over the last month or so we've seen how the productivity of companies and professionals (lawyers, accountants) is benefiting dramatically from using these tools.

Important strategy shifts, with the first one being purchase of KVUE (continued litigation overhang). Divesting pulp business (always volatile). Significant transformation as it pivots from that to a high-margin, pure-play personal care giant. 

If you're willing to hold on and litigation and pulp issues get resolved, then clip your coupon and stock could work quite well. Attractive yield of 4.5%. 

Most banks have rallied strongly over last year and a bit, so yields have come down. As we look toward midterm elections, typically Republican governments are good for deregulation (allowing banks to invest more and grow faster). Strong business, especially as the IPO pipeline is opening up this year. Solid hold. Yield is 2.3%.

He owns MS.

Most banks have rallied strongly over last year and a bit, so yields have come down. As we look toward midterm elections, typically Republican governments are good for deregulation (allowing banks to invest more and grow faster).

Lots of chatter on this topic right now. These would help the US banks, by way of supporting the consumer and overall lending. Positive for stocks broadly speaking, as well as for the banks.

Successful transition to e-commerce is why stock's been on fire. Topline growth is only 4-5%, and his team debates this company all the time. PE is 46x earnings for 2026, extremely expensive. Seen as a safe place to park $$ as they continue to execute.

See his Top Picks.

Be cautious. Very expensive. About 100x PE on this year's earnings. Discounting a lot of good news and flawless execution for next several years. Owns massive fabrication plants (fabs); unlike NVDA, which designs chips but then pays others to build them. 

New strategy to build new fabs, but let competitors use them -- wants to become second-largest foundry by 2030. Government investment is positive. Stock's gotten ahead of itself.

Significant structural changes. Just spun off life sciences business, and merged that with WAT. So now it's a pure-play "med tech" company (per management). The "new" BDX is focused on higher-growth, higher-margin areas.

Before the changes, company looked for $15 EPS. For 2026, now looking at $12.50. Operating margin expectations have gone up from 21% to 25%. Fairly cheap at 14x. Wait-and-see. Changes add risk.

Lots of moving parts. All telecoms are helped by increased immigration. People leaving would impact the numbers needing telco services, but will that actually happen? Mature business. New CEO, who may focus on paying down debt. Dividend flat, but market's now expecting a cut. 

Overhang has been potential disruption in digital payments. Lagged S&P, and multiple's come down. Benefiting from the broader theme of moving from cash to credit. Growing revenues 10-11%. It'll come through this OK. Probably 15% earnings growth. Valuation not stretched at 22-23x PE. He's positive.

His firm owns MA instead. 

Down 5% YOY. Overhang has been potential disruption in digital payments. Still likes it. Benefiting from the broader theme of moving from cash to credit. Feels it'll come out still looking good. Growing revenues 10-11%. Probably 15% earnings growth. Valuation not stretched at 22-23x PE. He's positive.

Great entry point. Trading at only 22x PE. You get 15% revenue growth and EPS growth. Caught up in the "show me the ROIC" story. Capex continues to increase dramatically. About 39% Azure revenue growth last quarter (~2% below the whisper number, which always upsets all those fast-money people on the street ;). 

Don't forget about Copilot, ramping up from 15M paid seats to 30-40M over next year or two as people want to increase productivity.