Today, Mike Philbrick commented about whether CIF.TO, QVAL, ZAG.TO, XETM.TO, UBNK.TO, UMAX.TO, FEQT.TO, XEQT.TO, ZEQT.TO, FXI-US, ZWB.TO, HMAX.TO, NVHE.TO, VEE.TO, NLR, SIL, FBTC.TO, IBIT, SOLQ.TO, VFLO, COPP, COPP.TO, ZSP.TO, XUS.TO, BANK.TO, EMAX.TO, ENCC.TO are stocks to buy or sell.
Every industrial revolution spends capital before it creates productivity, and the AI revolution is no different.
The next phase is what needs to be built, who finances it at what price, and who gets to bear the risk? There's a 3C framework. Capability: what have we invented? Capacity: can we physically build and deploy it? Capital: how do we finance it, at what price, and where does the risk end up?
Investors should ask not only which technologies will win, but who gets paid to finance the buildout, whether the price they're paying is sensible, and who owns the infrastructure everyone needs.
Lots of talk about yields and inflation. For him, it's not simply whether rates go up or down. It's why the market's demanding that price for long-term capital. A 5% yield can tell you different things. It can mean that an economy has great projects for capital. It can mean that there are more projects than the economy has the capacity to build, and higher rates are a means to ration that capital. Or, investors want more compensation for inflation deficits and policy uncertainty.
Today, AI investment is competing for capital at the same time that governments have very large financing needs. Also has significant portfolio implications. Canadian bond market's yielding about 4%, US is around 5%. For a long time stocks didn't have much competition from bonds, but now they do.
This puts a premium on 3 things: income, valuation discipline, and scarce productive capacity.
Some of it was funded internally, because the hyperscalers had huge cash reserves. But they've also tapped bond markets and private equity players. At the same time, we have these huge financing obligations from government. So it's evolving.
The price of that financing could be telling you that there are concerns around fiscal and monetary uncertainty. It also could be telling you there are just really good projects to be done and they need to be financed.
Equal weight portfolio of Canada's 10 largest banks and insurance companies. Adds 25% leverage on top of that. Remember, leverage cuts both ways. Writes calls on up to 1/3 (better than on 100%) of the portfolio to enhance the monthly income. Examine what you receive as "yield", to see if some of it was actually return of (your own) capital.
Underlying Canadian banks and lifecos have done quite well on their own.
Rules-based. Selects the 50 most profitable companies with high FCF yields and favourable growth prospects. Quality/value tilt. Different than traditional market cap exposure. No leverage, no options. Concentrated, exposed primarily to large- and mid-caps.
Current tilts are technology, energy, and healthcare, but those are going to change. Likes it. Would appeal to a factor-based investor. Make sure you size it correctly, as sometimes the tracking error can be a bit hard to handle. Be disciplined -- don't quit when you're underperforming, as you'll realize losses only to give up future returns. In the past, some of the market-cap weighted indexes have outperformed a lot of these value-based ETFs (but not this year).
See one of his Top Picks, for a similar ETF.
Owns Solana tokens, a digital currency for smart contracts. Wall Street has chosen Ethereum as the king, but Solana is the queen. The transition to smart contracts is happening today. Blockchain is quicker and cheaper, which increases the velocity of money and makes capital flows more efficient.
To process these transactions, you "stake" some of your Solana to help those transactions occur, and you get a yield from that.
Definitely more on the "explore" side of your portfolio. Lots of volatility. Crawl first, don't run. Trim when it does well.
Still constructive on silver miners, they remain relatively inexpensive. Silver expected to record sixth annual supply deficit in 2026. What's changed is that manufacturers have been aggressively reusing silver, or finding alternatives. So part of the demand structure has changed, but it's still a story of scarcity.
More "explore" than "core".