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Market's looking through where we stand today, thinking that the Strait will open up tomorrow and we'll go back to normal. That apathy is creating the most attractive opportunity for energy stocks that he's seen in his career since the lows of Covid.

We're down 13-14M barrels per day of Middle Eastern production. All told, inventories have fallen by roughly 7-8M barrels per day. Even if the Strait opens up next month, his math says we've lost 1.8B barrels of production. You can't lose that massive number without impacting the oil price. 

By July 1, the world will have lost enough inventory globally that the global refining system will start to crack. We're already starting to see shortages, and it's those shortages that will jolt the market out of this catatonic state. All the safety buffers will be gone. And we're entering the demand pickup of driving season. A price spike is the only mechanism to rebalance supply and demand.

His advisers tell him that Iran's figured out that having the Strait closed actually gives it more levers than having a nuclear weapon.

Thinks we'll be fine from an oil perspective, and we'll skate by with refined products. But we'll pay for it. If the Iran situation is not fixed certainly by Christmas, you may want to reevaluate any travel plans.

The cost of everything is going to go up -- feedstocks, transportation, gasoline, jet fuel. The inflationary shock coming will be absolutely massive.

He's excited that oil/energy stocks are discounting the oil price at roughly $65-70. His team thinks the floor price for next year is about $80 (actual price will be meaningfully higher).

Oil at $65 is an extremely ignorant view, and offers a wildly compelling entry point on energy stocks.

Depends on why the oil price is going up. Typically, geopolitical events cause a spike, get resolved, and then the price drops. That thesis is a misunderstanding this time around.

Don't buy an energy stock today on the basis that Nuttall on BNN said oil was going to $200. The investment thesis is for "the day after", when things eventually normalize. What does the world look like then? It'll take 3-4 years for inventories to restock.

He's deploying client capital today with the expectation to gain 50% in 1-2 years.

Thinks it's a double from here (not a 1-year target). Meaningful compounding of share buybacks over time. Roughly 35% upside next year at $80 oil.

Despite the runup, long-term upside warrants being exposed today, as long as you can ride with the volatility.

In January, he changed the strategy to generate more income. It's the same basket of high-yielding stocks, but they write calls "at the money" on only 1/3 of the position. To date, the strategy is over-earning. Not ROC. Yield is 12-ish%.

Disclosure:  He runs this fund.

Cracked the nut on how to frack wells economically in the Duvernay. Phenomenal profitability. Approaching fair value. Strategic value of its assets is going up a lot. A double over the medium-to-long term.

Work in progress / value trap. Starting to condense geographical exposure. Better oil and natural gas names to buy. Lacking catalysts and sizzle.

Likes, but doesn't make the cut on taking advantage of the massive opportunity today. Net cash on balance sheet. Prefers names with a bit more oil to them, and this one is 50/50. He's pretty negative on Canadian natural gas pricing. Great CEO.

Sell immediately, and see his Top Picks. 

Why is SHEL buying ARX? SHEL is symptomatic of the global super-majors -- they're short reserves, so they need to replace inventory base. Doesn't agree with its philosophies on allocating FCF.

Continues to crunch it out quarter after quarter, year after year. Underperformer because it's just so small. Needs catalyst of institutional investors. Attractive yield of 5.1%.

You can make more $$ elsewhere. See his Top Picks.

Suffering from natural gas price. Still searching for a CEO. He sold. Still a great horse if you're bullish natural gas.

(Bought out by OVV.)  He owns OVV -- exposed to two of the best plays in NA (Montney in Canada, Permian in US). It's deleveraging, which should also increase buybacks.

Likes it even more today. Proved that aggregating resources in the most economic play in NA, the Clearwater, has paid off. Water flooding is really working. Potentially 50% more upside in a year, but just let it play out.

Activity in the space is going up, so pricing should be up 5-10% leading into 2027. On the opportunity in oil today, he feels the only way to go is with pure play oil producers. Everything will go up, but producers will go up the most.

Well run. Great company.