It's probably part of the negotiation tactic by Trump. Best to remember what won't change in the near term, which is that Canada and the US share a border and are each other's largest trader partner. We will likely reach a resolution at some point. Despite the US-Iran war, tariffs, and interest rates, earnings growth is resilient. The AI investment cycle has been strong. Despite volatility, the S&P if up 9% and the Russell 2000 18% this year, which points to a broader market. Eli Lilly has outperformed Nividia 2-1 over the past 12 months, for example. The market is stronger than you believe, despite obstacles.
North American growth is slowing with its product saturated, though internationally it is growing nicely but it's lower margin. Also, it's seeing the classic transition from growth to value investors.. NFLX was a high-growth company at a high multiple, but has slowed down. It's a hold, because NFLX is a legitimate franchise, and the 20x PE is fair, though it likely will decline as growth investors exit. Also, movies and shows are a capital-intense business.
They avoided the AI spending crazy and took a measured approach, then partnered with other companies that did spend. These AI models will become commodities. It's interesting that CEO Tim Cook's successor is the head of hardware; he expects a serious change in Apple hardware which is where capital will be deployed. They will retain their loyal customers.
Keytruda makes up half of sales, which makes the market nervous, because the drug faces a patent cliff in a few years. Their pipeline is deep, and the acquisitions they made will replenish that pipeline. Even when it goes off-patent, Keytruda will remain a preferred drug by doctors.
He trimmed a little early this year, but likes it. Their relationship with the customer is strong across its platform. Secondly, growth is remarkable. Also, the valuation is reasonable. Their AI model is not the best, but it's competitive. Can you keep your eyeballs on a Google product? Yes. Gemini is integrated in their search, so that removes the threat to their search.