Tourmaline Oil Corp (TOU-T)

Unfortunately, fatality overnight; will have only a short-term impact, weak today. Despite the name, a natural gas company. Trades at highest premium relative to peers. Management and resource depth are solid. Backdrop is bullish for Canadian natural gas producers, but he'd prefer other names. 

Her portfolio is quite concentrated; she'd add this if she could. Low-cost producer. Will need to see what's happening with egress of nat gas in Canada, which could bode well for nat gas prices and production. She owns ARX.

Cold winter weather has been good for nat gas prices. Wild card is AI demand -- what's the sustainable fuel that can keep data centres running 24/7? It's natural gas. Over the next few years, a fortune will be spent building data centres. Hopefully, with new administration in Canada, this name can benefit from the added infrastructure.

Earnings this week, he expects big increase to special dividend. Nice place to collect a growing income stream.

It is the industry leader for natural gas production with decades of inventories and great margins. It is a stable business but not growing as fast as in the past at 6 to 7%. He prefers mid-streamers, pipelines and service companies, to producers. The mid-streamers have tended to give more ROE.

Great margins and deep inventory to sell into many markets. Not growing as much as before, but stable. Offers a moderate return. A good natural gas producer.

Just cut and paste the chart from A to B, expecting more of the same. Liked it below $60; he trims between $70-75. Thinks oil and gas prices will generally be range-bound for the next year or two, and so will this kind of stock. Well run. Buy dips, don't chase strength.

Short-term this is fine, and really likes it long term. Has infrastructure, but has spun it off, natural gas and condensate businesses. We'll see about gas prices. Tariffs could hold impact, but LNG Canada will be larger.

Sold last year to invest in an energy producer with more upside. Might be largest nat gas producer in Canada. Gushes cashflow. If you're bullish on nat gas, no reason not to own this name.

He surmises that Trump's bark is bigger than his bite; there's a lot of cooperation between Canada and the US. The tariffs, if they open, won't last long, because they won't benefit the US (or Canada). He's bullish nat gas for the next 3-4 years. TOU has great management.

The 2024 chart is choppy, but there have been a series of higher lows. In mid-October 2023, we started a new 3-5 cyclical bull market, into the second half of 2025 or first half of 2026, but that's where the extreme danger zone is. As we get deeper into the cycle, the economy is running on all cyclinders which is when energy and materials are bid up. He remains constructive on energy. He's also bullish on natural gas.

Really good for a long-term hold. Solid Q3, beat on fund flow and free cashflow. Lower capex costs. Nice dividends. Nat gas has been challenged for a while, but it's part of the bridge to green energy. Exports are coming, which will really help. 

Trades in line with peers, good balance sheet. Production growth of 8%, and 10% cashflow per share growth. Probably the highest quality of the gas names.

Last summer, he was adding under $60. Recently trimming above $65. That's the approach he's thinking of for the next few years.

He likes natural gas as a transitionary vehicle as we move off carbon in the decades ahead. There's a lot of it around, so doesn't see this being a growth stock. Buy when weaker, sell when more expensive. That's how he's thinking about a lot of the energy stocks. See today's Educational Segment.

Chose it because it has its greatest percentage of revenues to nat gas. Nat gas will be solid going forward with increased demand for electricity. A long-term nat gas play that will continue to do well going forward.