Tourmaline Oil Corp (TOU.TO)

Long-term story still intact. Challenge for nat gas is the Iran conflict -- US oil companies drilled more, which produced excess nat gas and depressed the price. The whole ecosystem has underperformed. Peace in the Iran conflict will be a positive.

He doesn't let the stock market dictate his conviction and concern level. He follows the fundamentals and earnings. How's the balance sheet? Are they raising the dividend? Most of it is daily noise, just ignore it (unless you're a daily trader). He urges the investor to own stocks for retirement, and not worry so much about the day-to-day. 

Great business. A slam-dunk Buy here. Focus on the next 3-5 years. Thinks it'll double production over the next 5 years. Natural gas prices should be a lot higher.

A trade, not investment. The chart is rangebound from $58-68. Buy low, sell high.

High quality name. Leader in natural gas in Canada. Very low cost operations, good drilling inventory in Western Canada. Long-term structural tailwinds from electrification, data centres, and power demand.

That said, it doesn't matter how strong the company or the balance sheet is, it can't escape weak commodity prices. And that's what we're facing right now. Stock's been sideways over past year, barely positive. 200-day MA flat. This name carries a bit of beta and volatility. Be cautious.

Instead, look at a more conservative and integrated name such as CNQ. Or move to the pipelines.

If owned he would switch to something else. He is critical of corporate strategy and the stock hasn't done much for the past few years. There is too much supply growth in natural gas so Tourmaline has cut its Capex growth going forward. It is very resource rich with decades of drilling inventory. Needs a better natural gas price.

Her firm's replacement for ARX. Below $60 is a good time to buy. Largest nat gas producer in Canada, low cost. Nat gas prices are very low right now, but she's very positive on them in future.

About 80% gas, 20% oil. One of the big 6 names in Canada. Widely held, and by lots of institutions. ARX is being taken out, so this name is the last one standing that's predominantly gas. Very well run. Trades ~7x cashflow, fairly valued, not a lot of upside. Fairly heavy capex program.

Not a huge fan of Canadian nat gas, as pricing in Western Canada is atrocious. He's more favourable to Canadian oil. Dividend is ~3.5%.

A Hold right now. High-quality and diversified name, but premium valuation. Really exposed to Western Canadian gas prices and Pacific gas prices in the US. Both of those are under pressure, lots of inventory in storage.

He's long traded this. Its range is around $58 and $68 and that's where you trade it. You may buy it right now. Loves it. It's almost easy money.

Iran conflict prompted a lot of natural gas drilling in the US, and so the price collapsed. LNG Canada allows exports to higher-priced markets in Asia. New floating gasification plants will also add capacity. More upside. (You could take some of your oil profits and redeploy into gas names, which look really cheap.)

Her replacement for ARX, which is being bought by SHEL. Lots of upside with potential LNG expansion. Real disruption of supply with the Strait of Hormuz. Other countries are looking to our safe jurisdiction. 

Good management team, great assets. Yield is 3.28%. 

It's the biggest Canadian natural gas driller, but hasn't benefited from the US-Iran war, because North American nat gas prices have held (can't ship it abroad). TOU is managed well. They're building their infrastructure to lower the cost of the gas fields and this coincides with higher nat gas prices. Free cash flows will spike as capex falls and LNG contracts kick in.