Tourmaline Oil Corp (TOU.TO)

Canada has finally figured out that if we want to be rich, we have to sell to more than just Americans. Finally building pipelines to the West Coast, and starting to export nat gas out of Kitimat. Stock's still hanging out at a discount rate.

They had a massive growth phase, but can't growth that large anymore. This is natural. It's trading with natural gas which is bouncing around.

He trades this often. The chart is in a definite range. It has bounced recently and he will sell around $68.

Lots of catalysts, nice story. LNG ramp will be "when", not "if". Paid a nice dividend to wait.

His team is more focused on oil than natural gas. Nat gas is more of a show-me story. This name is a serial disappointment. Lots of opportunity, with ~2400 drilling locations in the Montney. Technical picture is languishing. 

Long-term story still intact. Challenge for nat gas is the Iran conflict -- US oil companies drilled more, which produced excess nat gas and depressed the price. The whole ecosystem has underperformed. Peace in the Iran conflict will be a positive.

He doesn't let the stock market dictate his conviction and concern level. He follows the fundamentals and earnings. How's the balance sheet? Are they raising the dividend? Most of it is daily noise, just ignore it (unless you're a daily trader). He urges the investor to own stocks for retirement, and not worry so much about the day-to-day. 

Great business. A slam-dunk Buy here. Focus on the next 3-5 years. Thinks it'll double production over the next 5 years. Natural gas prices should be a lot higher.

A trade, not investment. The chart is rangebound from $58-68. Buy low, sell high.

High quality name. Leader in natural gas in Canada. Very low cost operations, good drilling inventory in Western Canada. Long-term structural tailwinds from electrification, data centres, and power demand.

That said, it doesn't matter how strong the company or the balance sheet is, it can't escape weak commodity prices. And that's what we're facing right now. Stock's been sideways over past year, barely positive. 200-day MA flat. This name carries a bit of beta and volatility. Be cautious.

Instead, look at a more conservative and integrated name such as CNQ. Or move to the pipelines.

If owned he would switch to something else. He is critical of corporate strategy and the stock hasn't done much for the past few years. There is too much supply growth in natural gas so Tourmaline has cut its Capex growth going forward. It is very resource rich with decades of drilling inventory. Needs a better natural gas price.

Her firm's replacement for ARX. Below $60 is a good time to buy. Largest nat gas producer in Canada, low cost. Nat gas prices are very low right now, but she's very positive on them in future.

About 80% gas, 20% oil. One of the big 6 names in Canada. Widely held, and by lots of institutions. ARX is being taken out, so this name is the last one standing that's predominantly gas. Very well run. Trades ~7x cashflow, fairly valued, not a lot of upside. Fairly heavy capex program.

Not a huge fan of Canadian nat gas, as pricing in Western Canada is atrocious. He's more favourable to Canadian oil. Dividend is ~3.5%.