Tourmaline Oil Corp (TOU-T)

One of his basic tenets is that if a stock isn't behaving the way you think it should based on what you think you know, then assume you might be missing something. You need discipline around selling a position. He wants to own the leading companies fundamentally and technically. 

We are in a seasonally weak period for gas; wait for that to firm up before putting $$ to work. In early spring he was 12% energy, now down to 6%. TOU trading better than only 19% of companies in the S&P, relatively weak. Breadth in energy sector has been weak. Will turn around at some point, but can't say when.

Quality name. Largest player in nat gas in Canada, with the largest reserves and the lowest cost. Top of the environmental sustainability ratings. We just built a big gas export terminal. Natural gas will power AI for at least 10 years until nuclear can get more established. Outlook for gas is strong. Lots of gas around, so pricing may not be that good but volumes will increase nicely. Yield is 3.44%.

Being affected by volatility in energy prices. Not a large company like a SU or CNQ that can weather the storm. He owns it more as a speculative play. OK as a 1-2% position maximum as long as you have a diversified portfolio. No fundamental issues, still thinks poised for growth long term. Needs to continue ramping up production.

Likes it. Especially likes stocks where the founders are major shareholders, as goals are aligned with other shareholders. Will continue to make money. Lower dividend, but they do a lot of special ones. Worth owning. Now trading at lower end of its historical range.

Good time to buy. He bought in last month or so. Very good operator. Secret sauce is that it has the best drilling inventory, many decades worth. Largest nat gas producer in Canada, about 13-14%. Owns much of its own infrastructure, which gives them operational flexibility. Smart about diversifying away from a single access point for delivery. Shareholder friendly. Importantly, CEO is a very large shareholder.

His firm really likes the producers. Good company. Quite bullish on nat gas, and it should translate to the producers over time (with some lag).

Lots of optimism about the future of LNG in both Canadian and US natural gas stocks. Remember though, we're in the middle of July and that's not generally a friendly time of year for these companies. No fundamental issue. Doesn't see gas prices being broken. Give it a bit of space. As we get closer to fall, if you have time, you're probably in good shape.

It's actually natural gas ;)  There's an incredibly low gas price, as there's just too much gas in the system. There's an idea that by 2026, there might actually be a tighter gas market for the first time in a long time. Special dividends equivalent to the current yield. Collect your dividends and wait for that catalyst. Incredibly successful Canadian story. 

We're now exporting gas to other countries. Highest-quality company he can find while he waits for the catalyst to kick in. Yield is 3.2%.

Despite the name, Canada's largest natural gas producer at ~13% of the total. Likes its capital discipline and lean operating efficiency. 21% stake in TPZ. Early mover to secure market access to delivery hubs on US and Canadian West Coasts. Consistently able to get higher pricing than peers. Generates lots of cash.

Cargo shipping from LNG Canada (as soon as this weekend) will benefit the whole sector. Kitimat project has potential to meaningfully shift supply/demand balance of Western Canadian nat gas, due to Asian demand. Yield is 3.10%, and there are special dividends too.

He focuses on the top third of relative price performers in a group. The best companies tend to keep getting better. Good dividend plus dividend growth.

Harks back to his view that total return is important. Natural gas is up ~50% from a year ago. With LNG Canada coming on, anticipates nat gas prices improving materially through the end of the year. Business fundamentals are best in class. CEO has been buying shares. Not a lot of flash, but they know what they're doing and keep growing earnings per share.

Natural gas play, and a more stable way to provide energy for data centres.