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The choice of Kevin Warsh is significant. He's going to embark on an experiment to shrink the US balance sheet. 

People have different opinions about that balance sheet, but Greg was around in 2008 when it was a very scary world. We were fighting deflation -- if you get that wrong, you can end up in the 1930s. So you don't want to get it wrong. The balance sheet sort of rescued us from that.

Warsh believes that the path to lower interest rates is a smaller balance sheet. He also believes that the great productivity gains that we're seeing through AI are deflationary. Greg thinks he's going to be right on both of those.

However, the wild card right now is what is the price of oil going to be over the next 3 or 6 or 12 months? If oil prices are too high, then he won't lower rates (even though Trump wants him to). It's very important for the Federal Reserve and the integrity of the US to maintain some independence. The checks and balances are there to ensure that.

Markets are seeing this great run on earnings, even though there's uncertainty about both oil and the interest rate outlook.

Investors aren't ignoring the fallout from longer-lasting high energy prices, but are looking through that. Strait of Hormuz might not be what it was 3 months ago, but investors are betting that it will improve. As long as you can move some traffic, and strategic reserves and other drilling can keep oil around these levels, then that should be OK enough for the economy.

We've been in this situation before, and we've seen higher prices. If oil goes to $170, that's a totally different matter. That would have a slower-growth, recessionary impact. But investors are saying right now that that's probably not going to happen.

Markets are seeing a lot of AI productivity in many companies, and it's one of the bullish theses to explain why markets are defying expectations and going higher.

Global satellite provider. Has 51% of its business in Canada and 32% in US, balance in Europe and Australia and SA. Only 2 analysts cover it. Not very liquid. Analysts model big earnings drop from here, erratic and bumpy.

Looks speculative. He prefers a clearer earnings profile.

Maybe a bit over its skis. Q4 was impressive, with earnings up 56%. Improving story, has come a long way. At tail end of divestitures, so global imprint is getting smaller. Macro concerns, as with all the banks.

Compound annual growth profile still 11%. Trading ~9x PE for 2028, a bit less for 2027. Don't buy on this spike, but look for $118.

Very high multiple of ~30x, yet growing ~13%. That troubles him. Sales miss, softer guidance, 4% EPS reduction, softer margins. Will probably do well in Mexico. Doesn't love it from risk/reward.

Do you own this in a non-registered account? Or will you be paying tax on it?

The banks are totally a different game than they were 2 years ago. Used to be stuck around 12.5x forward PE, now hovering ~14.5x. Despite some troubles with the housing market, fundamentals and balance sheets continue to improve. Macro's looking pretty good.

Even at these levels, he's buying more.

One of the Canadian banks in the sweet spot. Nice growth rate for a reasonable valuation. He'd be more of a buyer than a seller, even at this level.

Certainly they can take advantage of hedging the market right now. There's a lot of common sense to doing that. 

As to buying into the oil complex right now, it depends. If the thesis is that oil's going to drop to $60 right away, then he probably wouldn't buy now. If you already have oils in your portfolio, don't buy.

But if you share his thesis that the Strait will be challenged with only some traffic going through, then we're probably looking at $80-90 oil. Canadian oil companies are at a massive advantage because we're really trying to expand our markets.

For a 5-year horizon, CNQ looks really good. On the nat gas side, he likes TOU and PEY.

If you already have oils in your portfolio, don't buy now. If you share his thesis that the Strait will be challenged with only some traffic going through, then we're probably looking at $80-90 oil. Canadian oil companies are at a massive advantage because we're really trying to expand our markets.

For a 5-year horizon, CNQ looks really good. On the nat gas side, he likes TOU and PEY.

If you already have oils in your portfolio, don't buy now. If you share his thesis that the Strait will be challenged with only some traffic going through, then we're probably looking at $80-90 oil. Canadian oil companies are at a massive advantage because we're really trying to expand our markets.

For a 5-year horizon, CNQ looks really good. On the nat gas side, he likes TOU and PEY.

If you already have oils in your portfolio, don't buy now. If you share his thesis that the Strait will be challenged with only some traffic going through, then we're probably looking at $80-90 oil. Canadian oil companies are at a massive advantage because we're really trying to expand our markets.

For a 5-year horizon, CNQ looks really good. On the nat gas side, he likes TOU and PEY.

Possible deal with Iran caused similar price action across the whole complex. The whole space was at a high. 

Both an oil play and an energy infrastructure play. Project backlog of $8B (with ~90% sanctioned, and another $12B being discussed) looks very visible. Great company. Trades at premium of 20x PE for 5% growth.

Better places for new $$.

For sure, a speculative company. Does have merit. Management is serious and knows what it's doing. Developing new trading markets. Not widely held, thinly traded, a little price action can move it a lot.

Only for non-registered accounts.

Bit expensive (8x PE) relative to peers (7x PE). Balance sheet in good shape. Q4 was very strong, beat by 7% and 1% on production. Increased dividend by 6.4%. Solid operational performance.

A fair value, meritorious name that really works if oil goes below $50. If oil stays where it is, does really well. If you don't have any oil and with a 5-year horizon, you could buy at this level. Problem with waiting to buy is that you often miss it.