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As long as 2025 holds, we'll witness a rare threepeat of double-digit earning gains. But the easy money is over after that multiple expansion plus earnings growth. 2026 will rely on earnings execution by leveraging businesses through gen-AI. Watch financials and healthcare for productivity gains. The million-dollar question is whether the consumer will be resilient. Some manufacturing numbers were weak, while the labour market is okay. Also watch inflation--what will the US Fed do, given de-globalization and tariff uncertainty. Rates will come down in Canada and the U.S. in 2026, which will support the market. He tries to look past the noise coming from America. 2026 earnings estimate is 9-18% growth, a wide margin, depending on the consumer and productivity.
A heavyweight in agriculture. They dominate the wholesale space in potash, nitrogen and phosphate sold through a massive retail network directly to farmers. Shares are up 25% the past year, a nice move, as the potash market finally tightens due to production cuts by peers. Fertilizer prices have stabilized. They execute well and cut costs ($200 million). Are leaning on retail network to sell proprietary products. Valuation of 13x PE is in-line with the average. Hold on.
Demand remains insatiable. They delivered an excellent quarter, far exceeding expectations. Trades at 39x PE and is growing dramatically at 55% revenue growth. If so, then next year EPS growth would be 61%. Is still margin expansion. People are starting to buy chips from Google and Broadcom, which may replace Nvidia's, so this could reduce NVDA's chip prices. Those chip-buyers have to see revenues from using those chips, though.
Has owned this a long time and would buy now during weakness. They could hit $10 billion EBITDA in 2026, up 25% from 2025. Weaknes comes from news about robo-taxis (by Tesla and Waymo). Waymo is partnering with Uber in some markets, but also going alone in others. Not sure if Uber will use Waymo for taxis. Uber has launched robo-taxis on its own in Abu Dhabi. Is positive on Uber.
Trimmed, because he had a big weight. Nice expansion in the price. They are still expanding in the U.S. with a long runway. Margins recovered as did supply chains. Are opening flagship stores in place like Fifth Avenue. It has become more expensive, but need flawless execution for shares to continue higher. Execution has been there. They face competition, but ATZ is new to Americans.
A long-term hold. They had a software glitch to their A320s and a production issue with a few A320s. The street is worried they won't meet their production targets, so shares have been weak lately. They are back to pre-Covid production levels. Demand is very strong, through the 2030s. Would buy it here.
Once upon a time, Microsoft was regarded as the leader in AI among the Mag 7. Then, Alphabet stole their crown by launching Gemini 3. Yes, Wall Street is fickle, but the prudent investor should not ignore MSFT. Azure is still growing at 40%, its overall top line at 23%, the company is swimming in $25 billion in cash and buying back shares, and AI is embedded in its offerings. Bears point to Microsoft's 34x PE, which is indeed high. MSFT's post-Covid chart shows that the stock tops out around 36-37x. So, there may be a little more upside before the stock bounces off that ceiling.