Latest Stock Buy or Sell? Make More Informed Decisions!

It was needed. Things are still pretty overbought, but at least we got some reprieve from the uber-parabolic move. 

We had to stay above the 50-day moving average. If you look at the trend since the April lows, the 50-day has been supporting the market. We needed to see that hold, and so far it has. As far as he's concerned, the trend is still good.

He continues to leg into stocks that he likes. For now, danger over. 

Still some things he doesn't like:  poor breadth, and divergence of some of the bigger momentum indicators such as MACD (moving average convergence/divergence). There are different price momentum indicators he looks at -- some are short term, and some are longer/big picture. The short-term ones are fine. But things like MACD are showing us that markets are still not seeing price momentum. Price momentum is weakening. 

Upshot is that he's going to stay with the trend, and he doesn't mind the market right now. But in the back of his mind he's keeping a bit of caution.

TSX is heavy in resources, and resources are picking up. And if you look at the Dow, it doesn't have the heavy tech weighting (except for MSFT), or the heavy AI weighting that the S&P 500 has. These 2 indexes are generally outperforming the S&P.

If you look at the tech stocks, some of them are breaking down or at least weakening. Whereas all this other stuff has a catchup to play, and it seems to be doing that.

He and his team have moved into equal weight S&P, and have been buying nothing but commodity and value stocks for the past year. They believed all along that the AI thing would start to roll over, and now we're seeing it. 

So, yes, he pays attention to the Dow. But only because it's an offset against things like the tech-weighted NASDAQ and even the tech-weighted S&P. When we see the Dow and the TSX move, that means there's some rotation going on. We're seeing that rotation.

If you look at the 3-year chart, you can see that support of ~$160-ish was broken. So you then have to spot the next levels of support. Technical analysis has a saying: "Old resistance will act as one level of support". In this case, it's back to 2023 and around $120. Next level is way below $120, probably ~$90. 

Need to see $120 hold and a firm bounce, not just for 1-2 days. If it did, he might be interested. If it cracks $120, probably looking at $80-90.

One of the groups that's just been slaughtered is the sub-prime, non-conventional lenders such as GSY and PRL. The other group are names in the restaurant business. You might want to be careful here.

In his aggressive strategy. Broke out, and he loves those. Could consolidate at current levels. Should find support somewhere in the zone of $93-95. Of the opinion it'll move up. Will sell if it breaks.

Candidate for tax-loss selling. Broke neckline. Next level of support looks to be ~$100-110 (the TV charts aren't exact). Looking at a 5-year chart, the older a support level is the less important it is. Not a buy now, as it's in a downtrend of lower highs and lower lows.

Another one ripe for tax-loss selling. In a downtrend of lower highs and lower lows. Until that ends, don't buy. Chart gives slight indication that it could be the beginning of a base. He'd want to see more up-and-down consolidation and then a breakout. But that's a ways off.

Right now, nat gas looks a bit better. In a downtrend since 2024, but has taken out the last low and the last peak. Breaking through a bit of old resistance -- good sign. Doesn't look too bad in the near term, but not an exciting area to be in right now.

Taking a look at the 5-year chart, looks like most of the producers -- little breakout, then broke down, finding support at the old breakout point, and now trying to bounce off that. A really good company, so could bounce back to old highs. Gives it 5-6/10.

Wouldn't want to see it break the old support level. Already fallen a chunk. Are you going to hold on for another couple of bucks? Maybe, if you like the stock. Will probably find some support around $45-46. Definitely wouldn't step in. 

If you hold, have to decide if you want to wait to see if it can hold at next support level.

"The longer the base, the better the case." Broke out hard, and you could even argue it went parabolic. Now taking a rest. Look at a 1-year chart for this one. Broke the neckline top. You can see a small zip up recently, but he'd want to see a base, and it's too early to say.

Absolutely don't buy now. But if it based, he'd look to buy on a breakout.

(Note the short timeframe.)  This one moves like a yo-yo. A great trader, classic swing-trader stock. Chart shows what predictable support it has. Trapped in a zone, but still likes it. Natural gas (the commodity) has started to move. This will follow because it's a producer. Meanwhile, you just have to grit your teeth and be patient.

His colleague Craig (the fundamental guy) loves the stock.

(Note the short timeframe.)  Still sees lots of upside on the producers in particular, on both gold and silver.

(Note the short timeframe.)  The risk on the markets didn't play out. But he's systematic. If indicators (such as the Bear-o-meter) say higher risk than normal, he holds more cash. He sold this ETF, but still holds "cash cash" and has been legging into the market over the last couple of weeks.

A gassy producer. The 3-year chart shows how it's trapped in another swing zone. You can look to buy here and sell at the top of the range. Believes that it will eventually break out, since nat gas is going up (that move just needs to be sustainable).