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It's been a spectacular year, far better than most people would have thought. He's been very happy. There are a few reasons for the massive dislocation between what oil has done and what the energy stocks have done. 

Thinks we're at the beginning of a realization that the biggest force of incremental supply (US shale) is reaching a permanent plateau to decline. We're being told that the big banks are seeing a significant increase in US fund flows and attention from US investors into Canada. We're blessed with companies that have decades' worth of drilling and inventories. Our companies trade at a discount, and we have better messaging from the federal government in terms of its support. We have incremental takeaway capacity on existing lines over the next several years.

As well, natural gas has been strong this year. He's quite bullish on nat gas going into 2026. The time will come, as well, for oil; thinks we're on the cusp of the next mega-bull market for oil.

Three big reasons.

Firstly, systemic increases owing to LNG capacity both in Canada and in the US. Secondly, increase in power demand in areas where data centres are being built out. For example in Texas, power demand is up 5.5%; for the past few decades, US power demand was growing about 0.4%. Finally (and thankfully), winter has finally arrived. We've had the coldest December in 10 years, and the forecast is for at least normal seasonal weather.

Broadly speaking, natural gas has gone from being a bridge fuel (to some future where we were going to live off solar panels and windmills) to being a foundational fuel. GE Vernova (makes gas turbines) reported this morning and spoke to clear, visible growth into the 2030s, and it's all going to come from natural gas.

Conventional oil producer in Western Canada. Despite its strong performance, symptom of there being zero care factor for Canadian small caps. For significant upside, you want to be "not too big, not too small". Unfortunately, this one is just too small. 

Not significant enough for institutions, and buying power of retail investors is not enough to get it going. Screens very well on spreadsheet math, but market dynamics mean it will struggle to attain institutional interest. Yield is just over 7%.

Might be the top-performing royalty company in Canada this year, up ~20%. Will never shoot the lights out, very much just collect your 7.2-7.3% dividend yield -- sustainable down to $50-51 oil. Enough inventory to pay that dividend for the next 30-35 years. Excellent choice for a very safe and steady yield.

He's bullish on oil for the second half of next year and on nat gas. Benefits from that rise in prices, but no capex risk. Still compelling, despite the runup, especially in a world of interest rate reductions. Wouldn't trim. Largest holding in his energy income fund.

"Undergoing strategic review" which is code for they're trying to sell themselves, and this is taking longer than thought. Share price performance weak relative to peers. His firm butted heads with management earlier this year.

Yield is ~7.8%; previously relied on balance sheet to pay that, but now capex is over so this is sustainable from low-mid $50s. Screens expensively, partly due to one of the biggest oil tycoons in Calgary being a major shareholder. Significant leverage to rising oil price, and he's bullish on oil. 

To hold this one, you'd need to be a strong oil bull to see significant upside in next 2-3 years.

One of the exceptions he's made in small caps, now owning about 3-4% of the company. Early in identifying significant upside in Duvernay, drilling spectacular wells. Low cost, increasing productivity. Thinks there's significant private equity coming from US into Canada, and the best plays are in the Montney and the Duvernay. 

Benefits from both liquid and natural gas upside. A newish name for him. Can't buy it with just a 1-2 year time horizon. (Potential acquisition is never a reason to buy.)

One of the few nat gas stocks he doesn't own. Well-held stock, so there's not as much incremental buying. Pursuing fairly significant organic growth, which means heavy capex, and mutes the free cashflow (and ability to pay special dividends). Better names for yield (4.8% now, 3.6% in future).

Using $4 gas and $60 oil, sees 1-year target of ~$73 and 2 years of ~$79. Instead, see his Top Picks.

Owned years ago. Critical of overall strategy, spread out over too many countries. Now consolidating, with more focus on Europe and Canada (especially in Montney). On his radar, watching, not terribly compelling at the moment. Yield is 3.9%.

If you're sitting on a loss, consider harvesting for tax-loss selling. With proceeds, consider either an energy fund ;) or one of today's Top Picks.

Great job of repositioning. Had a debt problem and faced with falling oil price. Sold off Eagle Ford for a pretty good amount, and paying down debt significantly. Once in net cash position, will then use 75% of cashflow for shareholder returns. Expects significant share buybacks, roughly 20% over next year. That should bring share price to $5. But then they need to do something.

Doesn't have as much inventory (only 10-12 years) as they need to gain relevance. Should acquire some stranded small caps.

(Acquired 13 Nov 2025.)  
Rather devastated to lose this special company. He does own CVE, the acquirer.

Trimmed slightly, still holds. Very high quality. Teething problems with Attachie project, so it's in the doghouse till it proves the economics of that play. Still sees very good upside, but knows it might lag the next quarter until produces better well results. 

Now trading at a discount. For M&A, would be at the top of his list to acquire (but don't buy for that reason alone).

Still a very large shareholder, about 8% weighting in his fund. Phenomenal job. Well results are absolutely spectacular. Lots of running room, 20+ years of drilling inventory. Trades at attractive forward multiple of 5.5x, fair would be 6-7x. On a conservative oil price, 20-30% upside from here, but he's more optimistic on oil.

One of only a very few oil names he owns.

Smallish-cap, natural gas producer. Has 20+ years of delineated inventory and exploration. Capex heavy to grow production. Must wait until 2029 for any semblance of FCF. Reasonable upside if you're bullish on nat gas. Multiple of ~5x forward PE is in line with peers. Yield is 1.6%.

See his Top Picks for a name with more upside, inventory of equal quality and better depth, and a significantly higher dividend.

Not a lot of downside in oil, but not a lot of upside over next 6 months either. This name has done well relative to what oil has done, and so he struggles to see short-term upside. Later next year might be a different story. Produces nat gas, and also extremely well run. Very widely held, so trades at fairly full multiple of 8x cashflow using $60 oil.