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Latest Stock Buy or Sell? Make More Informed Decisions!

Today, Malcolm Ethridge, Mgn. partner, Capital Area Planning Group and Stephen Weiss, Founder, Short Hills Capital Partners commented about whether NFLX, BABA, IBM, NOW are stocks to buy or sell.

BUY

He added more, despite NOW hitting a 52-week low yesterday. It's probably reached peak pessimism. It will separate from the pack, because its moat because CTO's won't introduce new AI start-ups that are supposed to disrupt the data space with companies they've been building in Silicon Valley in recent years. Also, NOW's earnings and free cash flow are growing, so it's growing into its high valuation.

DON'T BUY

Netflix has a YouTube problem--they have to compete with original content. That's why YouTube unseated them, because audience appetite is for original content.

BUY

Annual recurring revenue is growing double-digits. Their report next week should be good.

BUY

The momentum has returned and he thinks they will execute well.

PARTIAL SELL

He sold half his position. (Shares are at a 52-week low.) He should have sold when NFLX offered to take over Warners. He still likes it long term. No, he isn't happy they want to buy Warners--why do they need it? They could spend that money by investing in 5 years of content.

BUY

There are improvements in MLR (Medical Loss Ratio) expectations for managed-care companies, and potential clarity around Medicare Advantage.

DON'T BUY

In time, the CEO will execute and the stock will recover from its 52-week low currently. The balance sheet is in great shape and revenues are growing, but momentum is poor. Would not add now. Software is in the dog house.

BUY

In her top 10. It's doing very well in GPUs for small language models, less so for large ones. It's taken huge share from Intel and now has 40% of the CPU market. AMD chips requires a lot less memory. 

BUY

She has started buying this. It will be a prime beneficiary of the shift from GPU's to ASIC's. She avoided this before because it grew from buying companies (doesn't like this approach). but likes its ASIC growth.

BUY

It's been in a basing pattern for 5 years and now we're near the top of the range. Robo-taxis will break it out and bring recurring revenues to raise margins to 85%.

COMMENT
Bitcoin

It may test the range of $80,000-90,000, but will be the shallowest 4-year cycle decline in its history, then it will take off. It is the leading of a new asset class. Note that Bitcoin and gold are not correlated.

HOLD
Reuters reports it's looking to sell assets to reduce debt.

Makes sense to him. Deep Basin assets were picked up years ago, so this would be a chance to monetize those, pay down debt, and accelerate ROC to shareholders. Bay Street would probably view this very favourably. Shareholders want capital returned via share buybacks, and it's at a bit of a competitive disadvantage to companies like SU that return more capital to shareholders.

Believes reported headline number of $3B is light. Could be closer to $4B in asset sales.

COMMENT
Bullish on oil for the year.

He was cautious for much of 2025 based on trajectory of inventory builds. That remains the case. Expects inventories to build for the first half of this year.

However, the world is slowly waking up to the fact that we're in a post-shale world. US has confirmed that shale production has begun its descent, and will forevermore. The world has lost its biggest source of incremental supply. Shale lulled the world into thinking it had this abundant source of low-cost supply. Exploration and that expertise fell off. We're now relying on a handful of countries, Canada included, to be able to grow production. It's setting the world up for a mismatch between supply growth and demand growth. 

Once we get past this inventory-build hysteria, the world will determine what oil price will allow companies to pursue large-scale projects and start exploring/drilling again. That price is not $50, $60, or $70. That's where we're headed. For oil exposure, you want Canadian oil.

Short-term uncertainty. But energy investors need to prepare themselves, and their portfolios, for that reality. Because it's coming soon.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Phenomenally well run. Almost a pure play in the Clearwater, which is the most economic play in NA and it keeps getting better. Experimenting with water flooding, as have other companies, and the results have been spectacular. Generates lots of free cashflow. An emerging play in the Grand Rapids formation is exciting for future growth.

Trades at 8.4x this year's cashflow, a huge premium to peers. Ticks all the boxes except valuation. Better spot would be 7x, perhaps 8x at a stretch. For new $$, investors could look at TVE.

BUY

Really well run. Successfully pivoted away from mature assets with limited running room. Almost a pure play in the Clearwater. At the bleeding edge of using water flooding, phenomenal results. Expects a good report on year-end reserves (company expects at least 25 years of running room in this play). Continued success should bring multiple expansion. Sees 50-ish% upside from here with $60-70 oil over next 1-2 years.

A significantly cheaper alternative to HWX. Equally good management and properties, with same amount of running room and perhaps even more delineated inventory. Core holding for him, doesn't anticipate trimming.

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