50% off Premium Yearly
Today, Malcolm Ethridge, Mgn. partner, Capital Area Planning Group and Stephen Weiss, Founder, Short Hills Capital Partners commented about whether NFLX, BABA, IBM, NOW are stocks to buy or sell.
Makes sense to him. Deep Basin assets were picked up years ago, so this would be a chance to monetize those, pay down debt, and accelerate ROC to shareholders. Bay Street would probably view this very favourably. Shareholders want capital returned via share buybacks, and it's at a bit of a competitive disadvantage to companies like SU that return more capital to shareholders.
Believes reported headline number of $3B is light. Could be closer to $4B in asset sales.
He was cautious for much of 2025 based on trajectory of inventory builds. That remains the case. Expects inventories to build for the first half of this year.
However, the world is slowly waking up to the fact that we're in a post-shale world. US has confirmed that shale production has begun its descent, and will forevermore. The world has lost its biggest source of incremental supply. Shale lulled the world into thinking it had this abundant source of low-cost supply. Exploration and that expertise fell off. We're now relying on a handful of countries, Canada included, to be able to grow production. It's setting the world up for a mismatch between supply growth and demand growth.
Once we get past this inventory-build hysteria, the world will determine what oil price will allow companies to pursue large-scale projects and start exploring/drilling again. That price is not $50, $60, or $70. That's where we're headed. For oil exposure, you want Canadian oil.
Short-term uncertainty. But energy investors need to prepare themselves, and their portfolios, for that reality. Because it's coming soon.
Phenomenally well run. Almost a pure play in the Clearwater, which is the most economic play in NA and it keeps getting better. Experimenting with water flooding, as have other companies, and the results have been spectacular. Generates lots of free cashflow. An emerging play in the Grand Rapids formation is exciting for future growth.
Trades at 8.4x this year's cashflow, a huge premium to peers. Ticks all the boxes except valuation. Better spot would be 7x, perhaps 8x at a stretch. For new $$, investors could look at TVE.
Really well run. Successfully pivoted away from mature assets with limited running room. Almost a pure play in the Clearwater. At the bleeding edge of using water flooding, phenomenal results. Expects a good report on year-end reserves (company expects at least 25 years of running room in this play). Continued success should bring multiple expansion. Sees 50-ish% upside from here with $60-70 oil over next 1-2 years.
A significantly cheaper alternative to HWX. Equally good management and properties, with same amount of running room and perhaps even more delineated inventory. Core holding for him, doesn't anticipate trimming.
He added more, despite NOW hitting a 52-week low yesterday. It's probably reached peak pessimism. It will separate from the pack, because its moat because CTO's won't introduce new AI start-ups that are supposed to disrupt the data space with companies they've been building in Silicon Valley in recent years. Also, NOW's earnings and free cash flow are growing, so it's growing into its high valuation.